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AFL top eight predictions: Series introduction and eighth place

Roar Rookie
28th January, 2021
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Roar Rookie
28th January, 2021
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With the AFL season fast approaching, so comes the influx of conversations between you and your mates about whose team will be better this year.

So, in timely fashion, here is an article just like that but with a few more words. In this series I will share my predictions for the finalists at season’s end and also provide reasoning for each team being in their respective positions. Obviously, the AFL season is nothing if not unpredictable but these are the eight teams I believe will be playing in September, starting with number eight.

8. Carlton Blues
Well, this has been a long time coming for ‘Blue Baggers’ as their team has not appeared in finals since the famous 2013 series. The Blues finished ninth that year but were able to compete as the eighth team due to Essendon being removed from the finals due to the infamous supplements scandal. The Blues were not expected to make a huge impact during the postseason but went on to defeat the fifth-placed Tigers before falling to the reigning premier Swans in the semi-final.

The next five years saw a decline for the Navy Blue, but over the past few years, they have shown signs of building a strong young team ready to take the next step. However, despite showing glimpses of a strong brand of football, the team has never been able to live up to the expectations set by the fans and the media. This year will change all of that.

In the last decade, the Blues have been developing young players into stars of the game such as Patrick Cripps, Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh, all high picks in their respective drafts. Obviously, this development takes plenty of time and while these players have all reached the potential expected of them, there have also been a few surprise packets along the way.

The Blues have not only helped their young guns find their feet in the league, but they’ve also been productive in finding bargains in free agency, recruiting players such as Liam Jones and Nic Newman as strong contributors. By picking up Adam Saad and Zac Williams in the off-season, the Blues have finally snagged the big-name free agents they have been seeking, which is crucial in building a successful side.

North Melbourne’s Jack Ziebell chases Essendon’s Adam Saad

Adam Saad. (Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Their defence has slowly progressed into one of the best in the league, led by emerging superstar Jacob Weitering. Since moving to the backline, the former top pick has shined at his defensive post, shutting down the league’s best forwards on a weekly basis. Last season, Weitering took part in 86 contested defensive one-on-one contests, losing only 15.1 per cent, ranking third among players who had attended more than 50 contests.

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Topping that list was teammate Liam Jones, who attended 88 and only lost 9.1 per cent. What all of this means is that their shutdown defenders are pretty good. As for rebounding defenders, new recruits Adam Saad and Zac Williams (who admittedly will likely play a midfield role) should have no problem filling any holes there.

The midfield really needs no introduction here. Patrick Cripps is one of the best in the competition at his position, constantly causing opposition teams headaches with his masterful centre clearance work (where he led the league with 3.2 a game) and his ability to hit the scoreboard. His influence is perfectly shown in his consistent high finishes in the Brownlow Medal.

Patrick Cripps of the Blues smiles after victory

Patrick Cripps. (Photo by Graham Denholm/AFL Photos via Getty Images )

Every inside bull needs an outside runner, and that is what Sam Walsh is to Cripps, but he’s also so much more. Walsh showed no signs of a second-year slouch in 2020, once again averaging over 20 disposals in shortened quarters and using the ball at a very respectable 65 per cent. He will only get better as he puts more games under his belt and will be a key contributor in Carlton’s finals hopes.

There has been the issue of the third midfielder for a while now as Marc Murphy comes to the twilight of his career and is more suited to a half-forward role. However, if the talented Zac Williams can come in and fill the void with a move into the guts, the Blues should have no trouble at all.

The forward line is where the concerns lie. The Blues have the talent down there, that is undisputed, but producing a big enough score on a weekly basis is the issue.

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Levi Casboult has some of the best hands in the league above his head, but he lacks the consistency to be a truly dangerous key forward, while Harry McKay has slowly been developing, but is probably two to three years away from becoming a dominant threat inside-50. Eddie Betts provided leadership and spark among the forwards last year but kicked only 13 goals as the sun sets on his career.

The Blues were 11th in points scored last year, and while their defence is impressive, its not impressive enough to carry an entire game style into finals. If the Blues want to lift, it’ll have to come from their scoring.

All this being said, the Blues are finally set to make the jump into finals action. They’ve been patient as their players develop, and they should finally be able to reap the rewards. While I don’t believe they will be a top-four side, they could finish anywhere from sixth to eighth on the ladder after the final round.

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