The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

Opinion

2021 Australian Open: Preview

(Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Roar Guru
1st February, 2021
0

In the normal world, the 2021 Australian Open would’ve been run and done, and our champions would’ve been toasted with a media shoot by the Yarra River.

However, the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and Australia’s strict quarantine protocols, which have proven effective in fighting off COVID-19, forced this year’s tournament to be pushed back by three weeks, with the first ball to be served in anger next Monday, February 8.

Many of the world’s best players have been released from hotel quarantine in the past few days, and are currently ramping up their preparations by playing numerous ongoing tournaments at Melbourne Park in what has been dubbed the “Melbourne Summer Series”.

Additionally, some of the world’s top-ranked male players are taking part in the second edition of the ATP Cup, which is also being played entirely in Melbourne.

Last week, we saw Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem, Serena Williams, Naomi Osaka, Ashleigh Barty and Simona Halep take place in the Day at the Drive at the Adelaide Memorial Drive, with Barty playing her first match for eleven months.

Another Australian player, Nick Kyrgios, will also pick up a racquet for the first time in over twelve months, the Canberra native having not played since his hard-fought four set loss to Rafael Nadal at last year’s Australian Open.

In the intervention, he has spent the majority of the Australian lockdown in Canberra, while also lashing several players over their selfishness during the pandemic, in particular Djokovic over his staging of the controversial Adria Tour event in June last year.

On the men’s side, all eyes will be on the Serb to see if he can continue breaking records at Melbourne Park, his eight titles here a tournament record.

Advertisement

We start our preview with the undisputed title favourite, Novak Djokovic.

[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Australian Open history
Best result: Won eight times (2008, 2011-13, 15-16, 19-20)
Last year’s result: Champion (defeated Dominic Thiem in the final)

Other Grand Slam results in 2020
US Open: Fourth round (defaulted vs Pablo Carreno Busta)
French Open: Runner-up (lost to Rafael Nadal)

Titles won in 2020
ATP Cup, Australian Open, Dubai, Cincinnati, Rome.

If there is one man who has ruled at Melbourne Park this century, it is world number one Novak Djokovic.

Since debuting here in 2005, the Djoker has made the tournament his own, claiming a record eight titles, of which two were won in the toughest fashion possible, requiring five sets to overcome Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem in 2012 and last year, respectively.

Twelve months ago, the 33-year-old appeared down and out, trailing Thiem by two sets to one and staring down the barrel of a first defeat in an Australian Open final, before digging himself out of the canvas to claim the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup for an eighth time.

Advertisement

He then claimed another title in Dubai before the season was shut down when the coronavirus pandemic was declared as such, during which he staged the Adria Tour which concluded with himself and several other players testing positive to COVID-19.

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)

When the season resumed, the Serb claimed Masters titles in Cincinnati and Rome on either side of being defaulted from his fourth round match against Pablo Carreno Busta, in which he unintentionally struck a line judge in the first set.

At the French Open, he reached the final for the first time since winning the title in 2016, only to be on the wrong end of a humiliating defeat at the hands of Rafael Nadal.

Then, after qualifying for the ATP Finals once again, the Djoker reached the semi-finals, losing to Thiem, ending another successful season that was otherwise plagued by controversy.

After emerging from hotel quarantine in Adelaide, the Serb pulled out before his exhibition match against Jannik Sinner, only to emerge to play the second set after his countryman Filip Krajinovic won the opening set, this dividing his large legion of fans.

And while Djokovic will start as the favourite to claim a record ninth Australian Open title, he will not be without his opposition, with the likes of Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas expected to provide almighty challenges.

Advertisement

Prediction: Champion

[2] Rafael Nadal (ESP)

Australian Open history
Best result: Won (2009)
Last year’s result: Quarter-finals (lost to Dominic Thiem)

Other Grand Slam results in 2020
US Open: Did not play
French Open: Champion (defeated Novak Djokovic in the final)

Titles won in 2020: Acapulco, French Open

The player most expected to challenge Djokovic for the title at Melbourne Park is Rafael Nadal.

The Spaniard enjoyed a strong start to last season, helping his country to reach the final of the ATP Cup where he lost to his long-time Serbian rival, before reaching the quarter-finals at the Australian Open where he lost a tight four-setter against Dominic Thiem.

Advertisement

He then claimed his first title of the year in Acapulco, before the season went into hibernation due to the coronavirus.

After Wimbledon was cancelled, the Mallorcan native then opted to bypass the US hard court swing, thus forgoing the defence of a US Open title for the second time in seven years (after also choosing not to defend his 2013 title in 2014).

He returned to action in Rome, only to suffer an upset defeat at the hands of Diego Schwartzman in the quarter-finals before reversing that defeat with a straight-sets victory in the semi-finals of the French Open.

At Roland Garros, Nadal claimed his record-extending 13th title, thrashing Novak Djokovic in the final and in the intervention also equaled Roger Federer on 20 Major men’s singles titles and brought up his 100th match victory at the tournament.

The Spaniard created more history in his next match, defeating compatriot Feliciano Lopez in the second round at the Paris Masters to rack up his 1,000th career match victory and join Federer, Ivan Lendl and Jimmy Connors in winning at least as many matches.

He finished his season on a disappointing note, losing in the semi-finals to the eventual champion Daniil Medvedev at the ATP Finals, ensuring that his wait for a maiden title at the annual season-ending event would be extended for another twelve months.

We saw Nadal perform for the first time in 2021 last week, downing Dominic Thiem in straight sets in the Day at the Drive exhibition tournament in Adelaide.

Advertisement

As second seed, he will avoid his great rival Novak Djokovic until the final, and given the Serb’s dominance at Melbourne Park, it will take more than his absolute best for Nadal if he is to win his second Australian Open title, twelve months after his only win here in 2009.

As is always the case, I expect Nadal to get as far as the semi-finals.

Prediction: Semi-finals

Rafael Nadal receives a serve

(Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)

[3] Dominic Thiem (AUT)

Australian Open history
Best result: Runner-up (2020)
Last year’s result: Runner-up (lost to Novak Djokovic in the final)

Other Grand Slam results in 2020
US Open: Champion (defeated Alexander Zverev in the final)
French Open: Quarter-finals (lost to Diego Schwartzman)

Advertisement

Titles won in 2020: US Open

For years, men’s tennis had been crying out for a new Grand Slam champion to usher in a new era for the sport, and last year Dominic Thiem was able to deliver.

By winning the US Open last year, 27-year-old Thiem ended a streak of 13 straight Majors won by either Djokovic, Nadal or Roger Federer, and a streak of 14 won by anyone over the age of 30 (also taking in Stan Wawrinka’s win at the 2016 US Open).

He thus became the first man born in the 1990s, and the latest-born man, to win a Major title, joining the likes of Juan Martin del Potro, Andy Murray and Marin Cilic in winning his first such title at Flushing Meadows.

But he had to do it the tough way – coming from two sets to love down to defeat Alexander Zverev in the final, also becoming the first man since Gaston Gaudio at the 2004 French Open to win a Major title after facing such a deficit.

It wound up being his only title for the year, with his other results at the Majors being reaching the final at the Australian Open, where he had Djokovic on the ropes when he led two-sets-to-one only to lose in five, and a quarter-final showing at the French Open.

He also reached the championship match at the ATP Finals for the second consecutive year, only to be beaten by Daniil Medvedev, twelve months after losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final match of the season.

Advertisement

The Austrian will be keen to add to the breakthrough title he won at Flushing Meadows last year, and I think he will give the Australian Open title another crack, after coming so close last year.

Prediction: Final

Others to watch: Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas.

We now swing to the women’s side of things, where Ashleigh Barty stands as our biggest and best hope of producing a first local champion since Chris O’Neil won the title in December of 1977.

Unlike nearly all of her rivals who were forced into mandatory hotel quarantine upon their arrival into Australia, Barty has had a relatively interruption-free lead-up to the Australian Open, being able to train outdoors as much as she liked.

Last Friday night, she played her first competitive match for eleven months, showing signs of her best but also some rustiness as she lost to world number two Simona Halep in a tight three-setter at the Day at the Drive exhibition tournament in Adelaide.

This week, she will contest the Yarra Valley Classic, which will give her some valuable match practice as she bids to go one better than her semi-final showing last year, where she wasted set points in each set as she lost to Sofia Kenin in straight sets.

Advertisement

Barty, who will turn 25 in April, is the first female player we will preview.

[1] Ashleigh Barty (AUS)

Australian Open history
Best result: Semi-finals (2020)
Last year’s result: Semi-finals (lost to Sofia Kenin)

Other Grand Slam results in 2020
US Open: Did not play
French Open: Did not play

Titles won in 2020: Adelaide

As was the case when Australia pinned our Open hopes on Lleyton Hewitt at the turn of this century, it is Ashleigh Barty who will be in the spotlight as she seeks to become our first homegrown champion for over four decades.

Last year, the Queenslander achieved her best result at Melbourne Park, reaching the semi-finals where she fell to the eventual champion, Sofia Kenin, after turning the tables on Petra Kvitova in the preceding quarter-final match.

Advertisement

Little did she and all of us know that a global pandemic would drastically change the way we live for the foreseeable future.

After losing to Kvitova in three sets in the semi-finals in Doha, Barty would unknowingly not serve another ball in anger for the rest of the year, rushing home to Australia after the World Health Organisation declared the COVID-19 pandemic as such in March.

Ashleigh Barty sends down a serve

Ashleigh Barty sends down a serve. (Photo by Chaz Niell/Getty Images)

Citing concerns for her safety, Barty would forgo the remainder of the season, which meant skipping the US Open and also opting not to defend the French Open title she won in 2019.

Still, after Simona Halep failed to reach the quarter-finals at Roland Garros, the Ipswich native secured the year-end world number one ranking, all while cheering on her beloved Richmond Tigers as they claimed their third premiership in four years.

Barty was even on hand to present the AFL premiership cup to Damien Hardwick and Trent Cotchin in last year’s historic grand final, which for the first (and possibly only) time was played at the Gabba, with the MCG ruled out due to Melbourne’s stage-four restrictions.

Advertisement

Back on topic now, and before the Australian Open gets underway, the 24-year-old is contesting the Yarra Valley Classic this week, where she is the top seed, ahead of her nemesis Sofia Kenin, who is seeded second.

It’s a huge call, but I think Barty can reach the final, which if she does will be the first by an Australian at Melbourne Park since Lleyton Hewitt lost to Marat Safin in the 2005 men’s final.

Prediction: Final

[2] Simona Halep (ROU)

Australian Open history
Best result: Runner-up (2018)
Last year’s result: Semi-finals (lost to Garbine Muguruza)

Other Grand Slam results in 2020
US Open: Did not play
French Open: Fourth round (lost to Iga Swiatek)

Advertisement

Titles won in 2020: Dubai, Prague, Rome

One of several players expected to pose a huge threat to Ashleigh Barty for the title is women’s world number two Simona Halep.

Last week, the Romanian racked up six consecutive years in the top ten, with no other women’s player able to spend that long ranked in this bracket since January 2014.

It is a testament to her consistency which has seen her win 20 WTA titles, three of them last year – in Dubai, Prague and Rome.

The 29-year-old started her season by reaching the semi-finals at the Australian Open, where she lost to Garbine Muguruza, and then won her first of three titles for season 2020 in Dubai before the season was shut down due to the COVID-19 crisis.

With Wimbledon being cancelled for the first time since World War II, Halep’s status as defending champion will carry into this year, meaning she will open play on Centre Court on the first Tuesday at this year’s Championships, should they go ahead.

Upon the season resumption, Halep claimed titles in Prague and Rome, on either side of missing the US Open citing concerns around the pandemic.

Advertisement

At the French Open, which was ravaged by the absences of many star players, Halep was a clear favourite for the title, only to suffer humiliation at the hands of the eventual champion, Iga Swiatek, in the fourth round where she could only muster three games.

This ensured Halep would not reclaim the world number one ranking from Ash Barty, instead settling for second. Still, she will be one of the main contenders for the title, and I think she can go as far as going all the way, even if it’s at the expense of the local favourite.

Prediction: Champion

Simona Halep

(Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

[3] Naomi Osaka (JPN)

Australian Open history
Best result: Champion (2019)
Last year’s result: Third round (lost to Coco Gauff)

Other Grand Slam results in 2020
US Open: Champion (defeated Victoria Azarenka in the final)
French Open: Did not play

Advertisement

Titles won in 2020: US Open

Despite playing only four tournaments in season 2020, Naomi Osaka showed signs of her best in the second half of last season, as evidenced by reaching the final in Cincinnati and winning the US Open for a second time.

Beforehand, the Japanese star failed at defending a title for the second time; after having her 2018 US Open title defence ended by Belinda Bencic twelve months later, the 23-year-old suffered an early exit at the Australian Open, losing to Coco Gauff in the third round.

That followed a heartbreaking loss to Karolina Pliskova at the Brisbane International, where she had the chance to serve for the match only to drop the match in three sets.

At the Western andamp; Southern Open in her first tournament back after the season shutdown, she suffered a hamstring injury which saw Victoria Azarenka claim the title without the championship match being contested.

When the two finally met in the final of the US Open, Osaka came from a set down to deny the Belarusian the title, having lost the first set by 6-1 and being down a break in the second.

The hamstring injury she suffered at the relocated Cincinnati event saw her pull out of the French Open, and while she would’ve qualified for the season-ending WTA Finals in normal circumstances, the event was canned due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Advertisement

She is now contesting the ongoing Gippsland Trophy this week, as the second seed (behind only Simona Halep). She will face Alize Cornet in her first match before facing a potential rematch against Coco Gauff in the third round.

When it comes to Melbourne Park, I expect her to bring her best form and again reach the latter stages of the tournament.

Prediction: Semi-finals

[4] Sofia Kenin (USA)

Australian Open history
Best result: Won (2020)
Last year’s result: Champion (defeated Garbine Muguruza in the final)

Other Grand Slam results in 2020
US Open: Fourth round (lost to Elise Mertens)
French Open: Runner-up (lost to Iga Swiatek in the final)

Titles won in 2020: Australian Open, Lyon

Advertisement

The final player we will preview in detail is the reigning Australian Open champion, Sofia Kenin.

Last year, the American took advantage of an upset-ravaged quarter of the draw, which saw the previous three champions, Naomi Osaka (last year), Caroline Wozniacki (2018) and Serena Williams (2017) all fail to reach the quarter-finals.

Kenin ultimately defeated Osaka’s conqueror, Coco Gauff, in three sets to reach the quarter-finals of a major for the first time, then proceeded to break Australian hearts by beating Ashleigh Barty in straight sets in the semi-finals, saving a set point in each set.

She then came from a set down to defeat Garbine Muguruza to claim her first major title, thus becoming the first American not named Serena or Venus Williams to win a major women’s singles title since Sloane Stephens claimed the 2017 US Open, and at Melbourne Park since Jennifer Capriati in 2002.

Kenin proceeded to win her second title for the year in Lyon before the season was shut down as COVID-19 took hold.

The 22-year-old then managed to reach the fourth round of the US Open, achieving her best result at the tournament to date before bowing out to Belgian Elise Mertens.

After the season turned to the rescheduled European clay court season, Kenin suffered a humiliating double bagel defeat at the hands of Victoria Azarenka, but was able to turn things around at Roland Garros, reaching the final where she was beaten by unheralded Pole Iga Swiatek.

Advertisement

The American now returns to Melbourne Park – the scene of her greatest triumph – with the added pressure of being the defending champion, and it will remain to be seen how she handles this status at Grand Slam level for the first time.

I have her again going into the latter rounds, possibly as far as the semi-finals.

Prediction: Semi-finals

Others to watch: Iga Swiatek, Serena Williams, Elina Svitolina, Angelique Kerber, Victoria Azarenka, Bianca Andreescu.

The delayed Australian Open commences on Monday 8 February.

close