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Opinion

The scary stat behind the demise of high scoring in the AFL

Roar Guru
5th February, 2021
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Roar Guru
5th February, 2021
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Over the weekend, I rewatched the 1989 grand final between Hawthorn and Geelong, perhaps the most famous final of all time and perhaps the best game of all time.

1989: The Final Story is one of the best Australian sporting documentaries of all time as well. Modern grand finals like 2002, 2005 and ’06, 2009, 2010 (the first one), 2012 and 2018 were all glorious spectacles, without a doubt.

With comparative percolating around me, I began to wonder why 1989 holds up over the course of what will be 32 years come September this year. While the obvious speculation of the fact that champion on champion on champion graced the hallowed turf of the MCG, as do modern teams (not of the same quality of course), at the end of the game, that scoreboard sets the game apart.

From that grand final, Adelaide came into the competition, Fitzroy and Brisbane merged to become the Lions, Port Adelaide and Fremantle in the late ’90s came along. Then those teams were ageing and getting their young sides not only competitive, but all but Fremantle had won flags.

With things so settled, Gold Coast and GWS came in and again, the most talented kids in the country were spread further and further. Super teams like the Hawthorn of the ’80s, North Melbourne and West Coast, Brisbane in the early 2000s, Geelong and even Hawthorn from 2011-2015 were outstanding.

With no disrespect to Richmond, their successful period has been more of a testament to the system and style first, talent second. Not that there’s no talent there, but does anyone really think they’d stand up to those super teams?

If there was always 25-30, for example, genuine A-plus players in each draft, when all those new teams came in, the kids would go there to get them up. It’s still happening, more so with Gold Coast of course due to the draft concessions. And this isn’t a bashing of a national league. It’s a beautiful thing having teams across the country.

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Matthew Rowell of the Suns celebrates a goal

(Photo by Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images )

With the grand finals I spoke about before, 2002 got an aggregate of 141 points (yes, it was wet), 2005 got us 112 in sunshine, 2006 got us 169, 2009 was 148, the 2010 draw was 136, 2012 was 174 and 2018 was 153. These games will be remembered forever but when I look up at 21.18.144 to 21.12.138 for a combined 282 points, it’s a stark contrast.

Now, while many point to rule changes as the fault of a lack of high-scoring AFL, it’s the too thin spreading of talent.

But that is enough speculation, let’s get to some stats. Those 282 points in the 1989 grand final, we don’t expect from grand finals. But what about high scoring games? Both teams scoring triple digits are elite games of AFL with defence not the priority.

But with the landscape being dominated by those defensive structures, how many really happen? I’ve examined the last 20 years of footy and here are the numbers.

Number of games where both teams kicked 100 points or more
2000: 42, two finals (North Melbourne 16.14.110 beat Hawthorn 15.10.100 and Melbourne 23.18.156 beat North Melbourne 17.4.106)
2001: 28
2002: 27, one final (Adelaide 20.10.130 beat Melbourne 17.16.118)
2003: 18
2004: 15
2005: 26
2006: 13
2007: 32, one final (Hawthorn 15.15.105 beat Adelaide 15.12.102)
2008: 26
2009: 17, one final (Brisbane 16.15.111 beat Carlton 15.14.104)
2010: 11
2011: 13
2012: 12
2013: 23
2014: six
2015: six, one final (Adelaide 16.13.109 beat the Western Bulldogs 14.18.102)
2016: 12
2017: seven
2018: seven
2019: four

Charlie Dixon of the Power (center) is wrapped up

(Photo by Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

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The 42 games in 2000 are stunning and such a contrast given the 42nd last time a game happened was May 24, 2014. On that occasion, Collingwood scored 17.7.109 to West Coast’s 15.11.101, thanks to 13 Collingwood goal kickers and nine from the Eagles, with four multiples and Jamie Cripps kicking three.

But what’s the most glaring thing is those finals are iconic. The Crows-Dogs was a genuine pearler at the ‘G (Taylor Walker’s kick to Charlie Cameron is one of the best field kicks you’ll see), Brisbane’s comeback over Carlton was an absolute rip snorter, Lance Franklin’s seven against the Crows at Marvel is a permanent highlight and the Crows’ win over the Demons in 2002 is one of the better semi-finals you’ll ever see.

The point is not one person, expert or losing supporter has complained that the problem in the game was the fact that the defence didn’t hold up. High scoring is quality AFL and defenders are still revered from the 2000s (hello Dustin Fletcher, Matthew Scarlett, Mal Michael and many others).

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The 234 games in the 2000s followed by 101 in the 2010s is a genuine fall from grace and the fact we’ve got 18 teams with talent spread thin is undeniable. As fans we really want more scoring and it may well be in vain but the numbers are frightening.

So instead of being overtly negative, let’s at least hope and debate a solution. It’s unreasonable to think we get can back to the 42 games of the beginning of the millennium but what kind of number can we hope for? The 2013 number of 23 would be absolutely fantastic.

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The new rule with the kick-in man on the mark being 15 metres out implies that more space will be afforded to get the ball further away from the goal face. That could help get the territory game more flowing to score.

Could we have an extra premiership point for hitting triple digits, perhaps? While answers are mere speculation at this point, fans are crying out for high scoring AFL. We are better fans and the game is better for it.

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