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Opinion
I am a long-time reader, long-time contributor and long-time absentee from these pages but I am dropping by with some drops of knowledge and thoughts on the fledgling 2021 AFLW season that sits two ninths aged in its remarkable stage of imbalance, a condition that requires some deep diving.
Adelaide’s percentage after two games is a whopping 357.6 per cent. That would have led Fremantle’s 241.9 per cent after two rounds last year, the best percentage at the time. In 2019, North led with a 2-0 percentage of 256.4 per cent (as a new franchise, no less). Carlton had 226.1 per cent to top the 2018 AFLW two rounds in. Adelaide’s opening two wins in the inaugural 2017 season had them atop the ladder at 274.9 per cent, the previous best two-game percentage in AFLW history, which the Crows have obliterated this season with a pair of triple-up wins against the Eagles (56-18) and the Giants (62-15).
In 2021, they are merely third on the ladder, far behind both Brisbane and the Kangaroos.
The North Melbourne Kangaroos have 16 goals to their credit this season, while allowing just two for their opponents. They are yet to give up more than a single goal in a game. They have more behinds than their foes have had total scoring shots, and they have scored more goals than behinds. Their goals outnumber those given up by a ratio of eight to one, unheard of in any AFLW season beyond the first game. Their percentage of 563.2 per cent is unheard of at any point of any previous AFLW season, even after a single game. And yet they’re only second on the ladder right now.
Brisbane have given up one goal this season. Had Courtney Wakefield not won that one-on-one contest near the sticks for Richmond in the second quarter versus Brisbane, they wouldn’t have conceded a goal this season. Their for-and-against totals read like something out of juniors: 106 to 14. They have a percentage of more than 757 per cent after playing full games against two AFLW opponents.
(Chris Hyde/AFL Media/Getty Images)
On Sunday, they will host Collingwood, whose meagre percentage of more than 181 per cent barely rates them sixth in the competition after two games. Adelaide play 2-0 Fremantle, who have scored almost twice their opposition yet find themselves in fifth place and amazingly in danger of falling out of finals position for the moment this weekend.
Had Brisbane’s insane 65-2 rout of the Suns on Sunday been a first-round game rather than in Round 2, the Lions would have ended the week with a percentage of 3250 per cent. And the Suns’ percentage would have been an equally staggering 3.1 per cent. As it is, they could defeat the Magpies by a score of, say, 97 to 13 this weekend and actually lose ground percentage wise on their current 757.1 per cent. For every goal the Pies score, the Lions must come up with 46 points of their own to keep that percentage up.
And it could be so much worse. The Lions have kicked 15.16 this season, meaning that like their male counterparts, finding the bigger sticks has been a bit of an issue that might bite them in a tougher game like this weekend’s promises to be. Had they had even the accuracy of the Kangaroos from the first two games, those 31 scoring shots would have instead been 19.12.126 (instead of 106), and their corresponding percentage would be an even 900 per cent.
On the other end of the scale, the West Coast Eagles have four goals for the season, with a scoring line of 4.8.32 to show for their efforts so far in two losses. Their leading goal scorers at this moment lead the team with one goal apiece. Their current percentage of 40.5 per cent exceeds the 26.5 per cent they began their first season in the women’s league with, but no other team in AFLW history has had a worse two-game percentage outside of their expansion season than West Coast’s current 40.5 per cent, except for the four other teams below them on the ladder at this moment.
No team has ever allowed more points in the first two games of an AFLW season than the 120 allowed by the 0-2 GWS Giants this year, except for the 121 points allowed by the 0-2 Gold Coast Suns this year. The Giants are an awful 35.8 per cent, while the Suns are a more awful 30.6 per cent.
No team has ever scored fewer points in the first two games of an AFLW season than the 28 scored by the 0-2 Richmond Tigers so far in 2021, except for Geelong, who scored 26 last year and broke that record with 25 in their first two games of this season so far. The Tigers have a pathetic percentage of 32.9 per cent, and the Cats have a more pathetic percentage of 21.6 per cent, the lowest ever for two games into an AFLW season. If they were to lose this Friday’s game to the Bulldogs by a score of, let’s say, 69 to 15 in Round 3? That would actually raise their percentage.
So let’s look at the ELO-Following Football ratings for the 14 clubs as of this moment, and use them to make some projections for Round 3. As always, these forecasts are worth precisely what you’ve paid for them, so no promises.
On Friday night, Geelong host the Bulldogs. Geelong actually have the 11th best rating on our chart of 37.4 (where 50 is average), and the Bulldogs wield a rating of 45.4, good for ninth on our chart. Factor in timing and the home advantage with a few fans at GMHBA, and we see the Dogs as just a seven-point favourite against the Cats on Friday. Personally, I don’t think it’ll be quite that close.
(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Saturday, we start with Gold Coast at GWS’s ground at Blacktown. With the Giants tenth (43.7, down a lot from two weeks ago) and the Suns 12th (33.0, also down from two weeks back), the charcoal and orange are listed as 15-point favourites at home on the ELO-Following Football ratings. Personally, as long as it beats the nine-to-eight debacle from last season’s opener, I’ll take it.
Next comes the Saints hosting Carlton at RSEA Park. They are two middle-of-the-road clubs right now. With Carlton at 57.5 (sixth place in ratings, down from third) and St Kilda at 50.1 (basically where they started the season in eighth), the Blues are a one-goal favourite on ELO-FF, which feels about right to me, except for the detail I’ve left for the end.
The night closes with a dandy: top-rated North (73.0) visiting Melbourne (59.0) at Casey Fields. The Demons remain in a cluster at the lower end of the finals ranks, starting fourth and now fifth at the moment, and with the home field and some actual bodies allowed in the stands, they should be within 11 of the Kangas on paper. Will they really be able to stay within two goals of the powerhouse Kangas? I think so, with a shot at an upset if the stars align.
Sunday lines up with a trio of very competitive games on paper, and the opener’s a doozie: Adelaide (64.2) hosting Fremantle (64.5), virtually tied for second on our ELO-FF ratings chart. The home field and travel restrictions give the Crows a four-point rating advantage, and more than that in my mind unless Kiara Bowers goes off as she’s completely capable of doing for the Dockers.
Next, Brisbane (53.8) host Collingwood (59.4) at Hickey Park. I like the Lions here, although our ratings have the Pies as a 2.5-point favourite. And to close the weekend, last and certainly least, our two lowest rated clubs face off as Richmond (27.2) host West Coast (31.8), a game that combines two teams with one total win in their histories. That was an Eagles victory over the Bulldogs in Round 4 last year, where the Bulldogs kicked 3.8 to seal their own fate. It’s hard to see a high-scoring contest here, a fact that favours the Eagles for me. The home field just about nullifies the rating difference, but I’m taking the Eagles by a kick.
So far, the ELO-Following Football ratings have gone 12-2 this season, missing both Carlton losses. That makes me want to change my prediction and pick against the Blues this week, which I hereby do, while continuing to hope and pray for a successful completion to the footy season without loss of life or undue hardship on anybody involved in 2021.
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