Opinion
The dreaded duck made his first appearance of 2021 last Saturday. It is back to Randwick and the drawing board this Saturday. I am hoping the rain stays away and I’m pretty hopeful of a big day.
There are ten units in play, with no bets in Races 2 and 4 today.
2020-21 season (since 1 August)
Outlay: 350 units
Return: 433.7 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – 8 Shadow Flight (one unit)
I am setting the alarm clock for a rare go at the first on the card. It’s not much of a race. I was looking for ways to back Accountability but found Shadow Flight down near the bottom. He’s not getting a start in the Championships, but he’s been running okay in weaker grade and gets the big weight drop at this level. Jay Ford, yes. Les Bridge, yes.
Race 3 – 4 If You Think So (one unit)
Have I gone crazy? A bet in the Highway as well? If You Think So won by a street at this level two weeks ago. She’s up in trip here. I’ll take the odds that the switch has been flicked and she can back it up here.
Race 5 – 8 Canasta (three units)
Canasta is my best of the day. He was great leading second-up last time and can get a soft enough time of it in front to be hard to beat. New Arrangement, Bergen and Strategic Phil go in the exotics.
Race 6 – 6 Brave Song (two units)
I am pretty keen on Brave Song at the nice price. He’s been stretched to 1400 metres recently but is back to his preferred 1200 trip for this. Last time at this trip, his second behind Pandemic was huge lugging 60.5 kilos and he wasn’t bad behind Athiri in super fast time the start before that. Dry track and I’m loading up. Standout is the next best. Albumin is running well and is always a big price.
Race 7 – 1 Dreamforce (one unit)
I love Verry Elleegant and wouldn’t be surprised if she’s right to go fresh, but with bigger assignments down the track being her priority, I’m happy to go with Dreamforce. The old boy loves the 1400 and Randwick, is normally right to go first-up and should be able to lead here without too much fight. Kolding came back well and is right in it. This is a nice race.
Race 8 – 2 Kahma Lass (one unit)
I am speculating that the NZ invader Kahma Lass is up to it at his first start in Australia. She’s a Group 1 winner over a mile across the ditch but her other win was a sprint in good time (maiden).
Race 9 – 6 Lina’s Hero (one unit)
What to make of Lina’s Hero? He popped up occasionally when in Hong Kong, but I really don’t know how that measures up back here. She did bolt in at a recent trial though, and may have too much gas for them if they let her get away.
If you’re after a lead in the Lightning, Pippie is very, very fast and sometimes hard to catch.
Good luck, and fingers crossed for an improvement on last week. Please feel free to send me your specials and tales of woe.
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