Opinion
As expected, we and every other prognosticator of women’s footy went jet airplane last week – that is “7-for-7”.
Were it not for a first goal by the Bulldogs’ Elisabeth Georgostathis against the Magpies, there would have been zero lead changes in all of Round 6.
As it was, there was never a doubt in any game that each of the Contenders would breeze to easy wins (the average margin of victory for the six Contenders was over eight goals). Carlton got an equally easy W against last-placed Geelong, dragging the round-average down with a “mere” 35-point win.
But that’s all in the past. Now, the real season begins.
The AFL has announced the scheduled line-up for the final three rounds (Covid-willing), and not a single game lines up any Contender (the top six: Collingwood, Brisbane, Fremantle, Adelaide, North, Melbourne) with any Pretender (the bottom five: GWS, Richmond, West Coast, Gold Coast, Geelong).
Of the eighteen opponents those six Contenders will face in rounds seven through nine, fourteen are other Contenders, and none of the six have more than one “easier” game. It seems inevitable that the logjam at the top will spread out a bit by the end of March.
So will the bottom third of the ladder, by the way – ten of the fifteen possible opponents for those five teams are fellow Pretenders, and the other five are from the Tepid Trio (Bulldogs, Blues, and Saints) in the middle – all beatable foes, although they’ve yet to beat one.
The gap between the haves and the have-nots is gargantuan.
The highest ever percentage for an AFLW team in a complete season was 212 per cent for the 2019 Adelaide Crows in their dominant championship season.
Last year, the Kangaroos managed to reach 227 per cent when the quarantine shut down the home-and-away after Round 6.
Through that same number of games in 2021, four teams exceed that percentage, ranging from Collingwood’s 229per cent to Fremantle’s 285 per cent.
Similarly, two teams are fighting for the all-time worst percentage: Geelong and Gold Coast, with the Suns holding on to the “lead” by a single tenth despite the Cats’ 70-point defeat on Saturday. West Coast’s 40.7 per cent looks pedestrian by comparison, and the two other sub-60’s appear downright mediocre.
But thanks to the schedule masters at AFL HQ, we’re finally going to get three weeks of consistently competitive women’s footy, with 12 intra-tier match-ups in the final third of the season where none existed last week. Let’s take a look at both Round 7 and the overall picture for each team:
Collingwood (currently first, 6-0, 229per cent) – Goes to Brisbane on Sunday in a blockbuster that we see them winning by two points.
In R8 they get what should for them be an easy win over the Saints, but in R9 (with bye in hand), we see them edged out by a more-driven Adelaide on the road to finish 8-1 with a percentage perhaps in the 190 per cent range. Predicted finish: second, 8-1, first round bye.
Fremantle (currently second, 5-1, 285per cent) – Goes to Carlton on Sunday for what will be closer than many folks think, although the Dockers should win by a goal, maybe a bit more.
They have Melbourne on the west coast in R8, which is a game they’ll win by 2-3 goals, but playing North at Arden Street in the finale (after a quarantine-laden travel season) will be a bit much: we predict a narrow loss in the finale to knock them out of a bye. Predicted finish: third, 7-2, host semifinal (SF).
(Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Brisbane (currently third, 5-1, 258per cent) – Losers at home to Collingwood by two this weekend, as we mentioned. It won’t get any better either: we see them losing to North in R8 by the narrowest of margins, followed by a loss at Melbourne in R9 (who will be fighting for a finals spot). Predicted finish: fifth, 5-4, road SF.
Adelaide (currently fourth, 5-1, 244 per cent) – We have the Crows as a one-goal favourite at Melbourne on Saturday and a 25-point favourite hosting the Dogs in R8.
If it all goes “to plan”, Adelaide may coast to a bye by beating their R9 opponent, Collingwood, who will have one clinched already. Predicted finish: first by percentage, 8-1, first round bye.
North Melbourne (currently fifth, 4-2, 166 per cent) – Despite their ladder position, the Kangaroos may be the strongest team at their peak. A close loss to the Pies (where they somehow shot 0.8) and a shootout loss to the Demons (where Melbourne hit a six-goal purple patch in Q2) prevented a 6-0 start, and we still have them rated alongside Adelaide, Collingwood, and Fremantle atop the ELO-FF rating system.
They’re four-goal faves this Saturday against the Bulldogs, go to Brisbane for a difficult match that we have going very slightly their way, and get the Dockers at Arden Street to finish the season with five straight wins. Predicted finish: fourth by percentage, 7-2, host SF.
Courteney Munn of the Kangaroos (C) celebrates kicking a goal (Photo by Graham Denholm/Getty Images)
Melbourne (currently sixth, 4-2, 126 per cent) – The Demons are the weakest of the six Contenders, but they’re still a cut above the rest of the field. After a narrow loss at Adelaide this weekend, they’ll have to play at Freo in R8. If they can keep that loss within three goals, as we expect them to, then a win over Brisbane in the finale will get them into finals by percentage.
If they get blown out by the Dockers, then even an unlikely rout of the Lions might not do the trick. We think they’ll have what it takes after having been left for dead following losses in R4-5, but ONLY if they stay within striking distance of Fremantle and beat Brisbane in R9 (or Adelaide in R7). Predicted finish: 6th, 5-4, road SF.
Western Bulldogs (currently 7th, 4-2, 107 per cent) – Despite their upset win over the Demons, that 19-percentage point differential will probably mean the Doggies stay home in April. They have to go to North and get blown out Saturday, most likely putting them well below 100 per cent.
Adelaide will do the same at home, pushing them down towards 80-85 per cent; not even a rout of Richmond in R9 will enable them to catch Melbourne or even Carlton by then. Predicted finish: eighth by percentage, 5-4.
Carlton (currently eighth, 3-3, 112 per cent) – A 1.5 goal loss to Fremantle this weekend puts the Blues well behind Melbourne on percentage, but then they get Gold Coast and GWS to close out the season.
If they can build up thirty-point margins in both games… well, stranger things are possible, and Carlton is the one non-Contender who could be, um… a Contender. Predicted finish: seventh by narrow percentage, 5-4.
ST. Kilda (currently ninth, 2-4, 59per cent) – Wins at home versus Giants on Saturday, loses to Collingwood in R8, beats West Coast in the league finale by ten. Predicted finish: ninth, 4-5.
GWS Giants (currently tenth, 2-4, 57per cent) – Loses at St Kilda on Saturday, beats Geelong on the road by a goal or so; loses to Carlton in R9 at home (by how much depends on what the Blues think their own chances are). Predicted finish: 11th, 3-6.
Richmond (currently 11th, 1-5, 75per cent) – After a huge win in R5, they should get another one at Gold Coast Friday night by six points and another hosting the West Coast Eagles in R8.
Their percentage should be high enough then that even a pounding by the Doggies in the closer will keep them above the Giants in percentage. Not bad for a team that started 0-10! Predicted finish: 10th by percentage, 3-6.
West Coast (currently 12th, 1-5, 41per cent) – They get the gift of Geelong Sunday, the gift that keeps on giving wins in the AFLW this year; we see the Eagles winning by a solid goal. After that, going to Richmond will be a letdown, and hosting the Saints in R9 even more so.
Predicted finish: 12th, 2-7…unless they’re forced to play the Dockers a third time this season…
Geelong (currently 13th, 0-6, 31.7per cent) – The great news for the woeful Cats is that they play three other woeful teams to finish the season. Losses are forthcoming at the Eagles and then hosting the Giants, so it’ll all come down to the season-ending Showdown for the Spoon.
They’re evenly matched with the Suns, so because they’ll have to play on the Gold Coast, we believe the Cats will become the new record-holder for AFLW futility. Predicted finish: 14th (last), 0-9.
Gold Coast (currently 14th, 0-6, 31.6 per cent) – After hosting Friday Night Losses to Richmond and Carlton in the next two weeks, the Suns will need to defeat fellow un-victorious Geelong at the Metricon as part of a Saturday doubleheader with the men’s team on March 27.
Mostly because they’ll have stayed home for the majority of March, and Geelong won’t have, we see them Goal Coasting to their only win of the season and avoiding the Wooden Spoon. Predicted finish: 13th, 1-8.
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.
There’s a slight disconnect between the data, the record and the eye test for the Brisbane Lions to start season 2024. This week, Champion…
"One of the great downhill skiers, Bradley!"
Chief certainly gave David King the details he wanted!
Will it get the Hawks ready for a crucial clash with North Melbourne?
Amid all the hysteria and gnashing of teeth that accompanies any team following a particular galling loss, it's worth remembering at all times that…
