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The Mounting Yard: All Star Mile day at the Valley preview

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Roar Guru
12th March, 2021
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The third running of the All Star Mile will take place this Saturday and it will head to the Valley for the first time, where Arcadia Queen opens up as a $3 favourite.

The other races to take note of on the program are the Alister Clark Stakes at Group 2 level, and the Country Mile Series final.

It is always advantageous to be on speed at this track and with the rail true and the track in the good range, that shouldn’t be any different today. Let’s get into it.

Race 1: Grand Handicap Classic, Benchmark 80, handicap, 2500 metres
We find a tough race to analyse here in the first. They will go pretty slow with no designated leader in the race and that sets the race up perfectly for Aurora’s Symphony. The Simon Wilde gelding has won three on the bounce, two of them convincingly at Colac and Warrnambool, before going to Sandown over 2400 metres when fighting off Rising Archie who is somehow shorter in the market here. He had excuses when running third in his one attempt at this track, having to sustain a very long and wide run. He should lead from the inside gate (1) and prove hard to run down. Fanciful Toff was terrific when winning over this track and distance last start, and he should be peaking fourth up. He clearly loves the Valley, running two lengths off Outlandos two back, which is the superior form line coming into the race. Breaking Loose is the blowout chance at big odds. He has turned a corner of late, dominating lesser fields at Mornington and Swan Hill. He likes tight turning tracks and could go on with it in this grade.

Recommended bet: I am playing exotics in this race around #4, #1, #8, #2 and #6.

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Race 2: St Albans Stakes, listed race, two-year-old, 1200 metres
One of the better races on the program arrives here with some talented juveniles taking their place. I am convinced we saw a good horse at the trials in Awe. The Hawks colt is on debut here, but he looked very good in a recent trial at Rosehill when the jockey was basically pulling him back, all the while he was making ground on the rest of the field to eventually finish second. He is impeccably bred and maps to get a nice run. Montana Flash can do a lot wrong in his races but has plenty of ability and is well over the odds at the current quote. First-up this preparation he was half a length off Home Affairs who is given some hope in the Slipper next week, before having no luck in his two subsequent starts. The winkers go on here, which should hopefully sharpen him up and if he has some luck, he could prove too good for these. Scorched Earth is flying and must be considered. She was very good in the Blue Diamond Prelude behind Arcaded, before going over to South Australia and donkey licking them in the Magic Millions. He draws perfectly and maps to get the run of the race, but this is much harder than that race was. Predetermined has the speed to overcome a wide gate (9) and could run a place with some cheap sectionals in the middle of the race.

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Recommended bet: each-way plays on #2 Montana Flash at $16 and #6 Awe at $10.

Race 3: handicap, 2040 metres
This is the first race on the program where the market has got it majorly wrong. The Lindsey Smith trained Too Close the Sun looks very hard to beat. He has had one run at this track and that was a 3.75L win over the talented Relucent over this same distance. He then went on to win the Terang Cup over Fanciful Toff ($4.40 in the first race), before beating Sin to Win in the Warrnambool Cup. He was then sent back to Western Australia when winning the Ascot Cup, before running second in the Railway. He was then tipped out after that and resumed in the Futurity over 1400 metres, which would have been a good hit-out for him. He draws perfectly (6) to sit on the leader’s back and he will prove very hard to run down second-up where he as a terrific record (4:3-0-1). Blenheim Palace should be ready to peak third up. His second-up sixth (two lengths away) from Defibrillate and San Huberto reads well considering they both went well in the Australian Cup at Group 1 level. He draws perfectly (2) to try and lead and dictate the terms. Persan is the best horse in the race after coming off a fifth in the Melbourne Cup, but there must be queries over his fitness after just the one 1000 metres jump out. He has a poor first-up record (3:0-0-1) and draws terribly (9), but his class should take him a long way.

Recommended bet: win bet on #2 Too Close The Sun at $3.80.

Race 4: Abell Stakes, listed race, handicap, 1200 metres
A sneakily good race awaits punters here and it’s probably better than a listed race. They are going to go helter skelter throughout this race and it sets the race up perfectly for Age of Chivalry. I fell into him a few times last preparation without results, but he has come back a treat, beating Russian Camelot and Cordilla in two recent jump outs. He should have beaten Viridine first up last preparation over this distance, and his two-length third behind the ultra-talented Showmanship at this track reads well for this race. He should get the sit on both Dollar for Dollar and Ancestry and be able to get the last crack at them. Pandemic will run well. He was brilliant two back at Caulfield when beating Brave Song and William Thomas, before going down the straight at Flemington when running 1.5 lengths off Fabergino, who is a proper Group 1 performer. He will sit back off a hot speed and absolutely flash home late. Ancestry has excellent form from last preparation, but he was poor on resumption in the Oakleigh Plate. He was running along on the speed with Portland Sky who won the race, while he faded very quickly. This is easier and he likes the Valley, but he doesn’t run out a strong 1200 metres at this level. Dollar for Dollar is a Group 1 winner who draws well (2) and could surprise at good odds.

Recommended bet: #2 Age of Chivalry each way at $5.50.

Horse racing generic 1

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Race 5: Alister Clark Stakes, Group 2, three-year-old, 2040 metres
One of the more interesting races on the program is the Alister Clark and we have a short-priced favourite in Cherry Tortoni, who looks hard to beat. He worked home well first up in the CS Hayes Stakes, before going to the Australian Guineas when flashing home for second from near last to run half a length off Lunar Fox. He won the Moonee Valley Vase here last preparation over the exciting KhoeKhoe so he obviously goes well at the track and even though he will need some luck from back in the field, he looks hard to beat on exposed form. He is ultra-consistent. Grandslam will improve here and is worth having an each-way ticket on. The Maher team have sent him around with different tactics just for a bit of fitness in both the Guineas and the CS Hayes and he was doing his best late last start. Last time he was third up he ran third in the Caulfield Guineas after setting a hectic early speed and with the booking of Jamie Kah and going to the Valley, they are going to settle him on speed where he races best and if he gives a kick on the turn they will find it mightily hard to run him down. Young Werther is an absolute headcase but is probably the most talented horse in the field. He hung in badly last start at Caulfield but still finished off in race best late splits. The rise in distance suits but it’s hard to have any confidence backing him considering his manners. Beltoro will improve and can run a sneaky race.

Recommended bet: #3 Grandslam each way at $10.

Race 6: Country Mile Series Final, Benchmark 80, handicap, 1600 metres
Good luck picking the winner in this one. She needs a few to come out but the only value in the race was La Falaise. Her third-up record is better than it reads. She finished two lengths off Acting and Southbank when she was younger, and her last third-up effort was at Ballarat when she was without any luck whatsoever behind Indispensable and Maximak, who she also faces here again. Her one run at the track was a Group 2 victory as a three-year-old and she draws well (8) to sit midfield and run over what will most likely be a strong speed up in front.

Irish Playboy has upside. He beat a couple of talented types in the likes of Inspired Sun and Early Morning Rise last preparation, as well as winning in spectacular fashion at Bendigo over Steamboat Rock over a mile. He was tipped out after that and resumed with a good win over Judestar and Kent Street who he again faces here. The Valley isn’t ideal considering he will get back, but he can measure up with any improvement. The connections have a big opinion of him. It’s an absolute raffle outside of them couple. Fiorente Lass is a marginal favourite and does map perfectly from the gate (6). I’m not sure that Colac heat is the one I want to be following but she can settle on speed and prove hard to run down. Judestar worked home well behind Irish Playboy last start and therefore must be respected.

Recommended bet: #17 La Falaise each way at $13.

Race 7: Vobis Gold Reef, three-year-old, set weights plus penalties, 1600 metres
This is one of the toughest races to dissect in many a month. I ended up landing on Real Sensation. The Oliver camp must have had a good opinion of him when sending him to Flemington on debut when he seemingly never handled the heavy conditions, but since then he has been terrific. He closed off nicely two back over 1400 metres at Pakenham in a high rating maiden, before absolutely demolishing his rivals by nearly five lengths at Stawell last start. That was a win of a horse that can win city-type races and he finds a weak one here. The wide gate (9) might be handy if he can find some cover. Zoutellus is the blowout chance. He battled on well two back at Pakenham over 1400 metres, before holding them off last start, stepping up to the mile. He draws perfectly (5) and is the map horse. Bellinger had been threatening before a dominant win last start at Sandown over 1500 metres. He can go on with the job here with an economical run in transit. Conceited looked to have improved last start second up when without any luck and that was in a better field than this. He is inconsistent and does need luck in running.

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Recommended bet: win bet on #10 Real Sensation at $5.

Race 8: All Star Mile, weight for age, 1600 metres
Another cracking edition of the All-Star Mile awaits punters, this time at the mighty Moonee Valley. I am happy to be with two runners here and one of them is the marginal favourite in Arcadia Queen. This mare is a top-three horse in the country at the moment, striking bad luck in the Cox Plate last year and on either side of that winning the Caulfield and Mackinnon Stakes at Group 1 level. She was tipped out after that and resumed in good fashion behind Probabeel in the Futurity a few weeks ago. Getting out to the mile where she is undefeated (2:2-0-0) and stripping fitter second up is enough for her to turn the tables on that galloper, which is one of her main dangers. I want to be on Mugatoo as well. I can’t get his Cox Plate run out of my head at this track when he sat three and four wide without cover the trip and still beat the likes of Arcadia Queen and Probabeel home into fourth. He was strong to the line first up in the Apollo and trialled incredibly well at Gosford leading into this. He has a tremendous second-up record (4:3-0-0) and this is what he has been set for. Probabeel is aiming for three on the bounce here and will push forward from the wide gate (10). She is still slightly underrated and I keep risking her at my own peril. Outside of those three, it’s a raffle. Behemoth can run a big race third up, while Mr Quickie goes well off a freshen up and was strong to the line in the Futurity.

Recommended bet: I am backing both #6 Mugatoo at $12 and #10 Arcadia Queen at $4 for the win.

Race 9: Grand Handicap Spring, Benchmark 80, handicap, 1200 metres
I am happy to play around two runners in the last and I’m hoping the punters can go home happy. The larger bet will be on the very talented Cordilla. She is a bit of a headcase, which always makes backing her somewhat risky, but she has a fair bit on this field. Last preparation she was incredibly unlucky not to win first up over this track and distance when running a length off How Womantic and Fabric (who would be very short in this race), before again having no luck behind Chaillot who is now a group winner. The wide draw suits (9) providing Oliver can find her some cover and her jump out at Flemington when finishing alongside Age of Chivalry was fantastic. I want to save on Cielo D’oro. He has had his problems regarding his throat in the past (both at Caulfield) but his wins either side of that at this track and trip have been terrific. He handles the Valley well (3:2-0-0) and with even luck in running he will be rattling home. The Billionaire is a horse on the up who maps to either lead or sit handy and get the run of the race. He was very strong to the line last start, carries no weight and Jamie Kah on board is a big positive.

Recommended bet: I am backing both #3 Cielo D’oro at $15 and #5 Cordilla at $4.20 for the win.

Best bet: Race 9 #5 Cordilla
Next best bet: Race 3 #2 Too Close The Sun
Best value: Race 8 #6 Mugatoo

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