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Six spoilers for AFL season 2021

15th March, 2021
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15th March, 2021
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It’s a wonderful time of the year, when the women reach the exciting final portion of the home-and-away season, while the men look to match the incredible energy and passion in the opening round of their season.

Footy is unpredictable at the best of times, so while everyone else makes predictions, we’ll have a peek behind the curtain and look at six spoilers for season 2021 to whet your appetite.

Josh Dunkley finishes top-three in the Brownlow
Since the 2020 AFL trade period, Josh Dunkley has appeared to be somewhat of an outsider within his own club.

Regardless of how keen he and Essendon were to marry up, the 24-year-old will see this season as a strong opportunity to have an impact on a premiership contender, driving his personal value skyward for his next contract, wherever that may be.

Despite some pre-season criticism from the coach, there is absolutely no doubt that Dunkley is a vital part of the Bulldogs’ midfield group, even with the incredible depth at the club.

An injury-affected 2020 saw Dunkley’s forward minutes rise swiftly, however, that was situational and fitness-based, rather than a planned tactic heading into the year.

As we saw in his 2019 graduation, Dunkley is an incredibly prolific midfielder, where he averaged 28 disposals, six tackles, five clearances and kicked 11 goals, polling 15 Brownlow votes in the process.

Josh Dunkley of the Bulldogs handpasses the ball

Josh Dunkley (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

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Dunkley is most certainly the type of player who can win a Brownlow in his career, and with all the rumour and innuendo behind him, 2021 will be a season of dominance for the sixth-year Bulldog, pushing him to at least a podium finish in the Brownlow.

Imagine Dunkley’s 2021 trade period with a medal around his neck.

It’s always sunny in Witts’ area
While the 11th season of the hit show It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia was exactly what we’ve seen in recent years from the Gold Coast Suns – a great start before tapering away towards the end – we can expect Gold Coast to buck the trend in 2021.

The build has been slow, a lot slower than anyone really ever wanted, but the Suns put together the foundation of a really solid club in 2020 that is ready to compete for finals in 2021.

Finishing with five wins and a draw, with a solid percentage of 90.6, the Suns were able to maintain a competitive spirit that a lot of successful teams draw upon in times of need.

It isn’t surprising that the Suns have some of the most talented youth in the league, when you consider all the concessions and access that the club has had over the years.

But when you look at where certain players are in their careers, and who is ready to take a leap forward, it’s particularly encouraging.

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Matthew Rowell of the Suns celebrates a goal

Matthew Rowell of the Suns celebrates a goal (Photo by Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images )

Jack Lukosius and Matthew Rowell are clearly the two faces of the revolution, and both may well be top-40 players by the end of the season, which in itself would be enough of a great sign for the club.

There’s something really likeable about the midfield rotation at the feet of Jarrod Witts, with plenty of half-forwards able to rotate through, while bolstering the outside with Rory Atkins and Oleg Markov is smarter recruiting than what we saw in the early days.

Defensively, the club is really solid and that’s largely thanks to the opportunity given to and pounced upon by Sam Collins.

More help to let Charlie Ballard run free would be nice, hence the prediction for a Caleb Graham breakout, but the Suns actually have nice, experienced depth that can be of great assistance.

Perhaps it’s the key position posts in attack that are a factor in seeing the Suns as a team that just miss out in 2021, with Sam Day and Ben King the leaders.

Day is a really solid team player, providing an intangible that the coaches love, but isn’t the dominating type that most teams need, while King still needs time.

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There are plenty of small and medium forwards at the club, but it’s unrealistic to expect spectacular numbers from anyone outside of Izak Rankine, which in itself is a stretch.

Classy use out of defence and good depth around the centre of the ground will allow the Suns to take the next step in their development, yet it will take a real breakout performance from a young player to achieve the finals goal.

Still, this is a season of It’s Always Sunny that we should expect consistent excitement from the opening siren to the year’s final bell.

Sam Mitchell enters the fray
There has been a little bit of turnover when it comes to coaches in recent seasons.

As such, there’s an idea that things should settle down, particularly when patience can be rewarded, as we have seen with Richmond and West Coast in recent seasons.

But the AFL has a funny way of creating situations that become untenable, or clearly require a re-jig, and these sort of events tend to happen very quickly and suddenly. Contracts are almost irrelevant when the bigger picture is in play.

A lot of it has to do with expectation, and how private and public perception match up.

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For instance, I’ve written plenty about Melbourne and how 2021 was always the year to judge. So if it’s a failure, Simon Goodwin won’t last the year.

How about the Giants, who surprisingly re-signed Leon Cameron in the back-end of last season but are languishing without an on-field identity and a clear way forward?

Leon Cameron

Are GWS in danger of fading into obscurity? (AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Here’s a spanner in the works: how about the way which Geelong has set its squad up, the only pass mark is surely a premiership? And then there’s good old Hawthorn, who similar to Sydney, have entered the rebuild faze and both teams are currently backing in their established, long-term coaches.

Whether it be an outright appointment or as part of a succession plan, Sam Mitchell will be involved with a senior coaching role by the end of 2021.

He started his apprenticeship in his final playing years, and the immediate success he experienced at the Eagles in 2018 as an assistant coach was an invaluable two-way experience for both club and coach.

Mitchell enters this season as the senior coach of the Box Hill Hawks and Hawthorn’s head of development, with the club placing huge responsibility on the 38-year-old, grooming him for an eventual graduation to a senior role.

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I think it may come quick, or at least the announcements will. Sam Mitchell is a football mind many will continue to chase in 2021.

A Magpie slide confirmed
Collingwood is a bit of a mess, and this is simply focusing on the immediate on-field future.

Heading into the offseason, there was a clear need for Collingwood to sharpen its offensive weapons and perhaps recruit classier players on the outside.

Instead, the club let go of its star midfielder, a key attacking weapon who had struggled with illness, and a mainstay wingman yet to reach his potential.

With Adam Treloar, Jaidyn Stephenson and Tom Phillips gone, and no established players entering the club, the Magpies now face a pretty grim reality heading into 2021.

Adam Treloar

Will the Pies miss Treloar in 2021? (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

A key concern for Collingwood is that the defensive stability that is a key feature of the game is only as effective as the maximisation of the counter-attacking opportunities they provide.

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Even without Jeremy Howe, Collingwood put together an extremely strong year both aerially and from an accountability standpoint, which helped them sneak into the top eight in the shorter games.

Heading into the return of full-length quarters, however, it is simply unsustainable.

The Magpies drafted well, and 2021 should be seen as an opportunity to blood Oliver Henry and Finlay Macrae in particular, while the emergence of Brayden Sier, Josh Daicos, Tyler Brown, Trent Bianco and Jay Rantall should help develop some midfield depth, which needs to be recovered.

Issues in attack remain, however, and much to the chagrin of myself and the football public, it may become necessary for Collingwood to swing Jeremy Howe forward in periods of 2021.

A difficult season awaits, but the Magpies have the opportunity to create a mini-rebuild without bottoming out, which can be successful with the young talent on the list.

Richmond turns to its young cubs
The Tigers are an absolute powerhouse of the competition and enter 2021 as one of the more favoured teams to win the premiership.

The beauty of Richmond’s style over the past four seasons has been the plug-and-play nature, where players are simply placed into the roles moulded by the coaching staff.

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For years, teams have had the opportunity to figure out how to stop the Tigers, and have generally failed to dent both the ambition and success of the club.

Continued success with the same core group is a rarity, but historically, can also result in stunted growth for future development if not well considered.

Richmond has already taken solid steps in getting its longevity as a genuine contender sorted, with some star young players emerging in 2020.

Noah Balta looks a bonafide All Australian key defensive candidate in future years, having established himself in the opening left by Alex Rance, despite perhaps being thought of as a utility/wingman.

Shai Bolton may be the most exciting talent in the league and will become a full-time midfielder this season.

The likes of Liam Baker, Jack Graham, Jack Ross and Sydney Stack have barely scratched the surface with a nice chunk of senior experience under their belt, while Thomson Dow, Patrick Naish, and inevitably Riley Collier-Dawkins, Will Martyn and Callum Coleman-Jones will all get their opportunities in 2021 and can flourish thanks to the successful environment.

The expectations won’t change at Tigerland this season, far from it. But the less reliance on Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, Shane Edwards and Jack Riewoldt during the home-and-away season for the club, the better it is in building a platform for the future.

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Trent Cotchin

Trent Cotchin (Photo by Ryan Pierse/AFL Media/via Getty Images )

Expect plenty of Martin in attack, Edwards in defence, and youth running through the centre and in key posts.

Richmond is awake to what the future holds, and the quality of the young players is enough to expect more dominance going forward.

Saintly struggles
Heading into the first round of the AFL season, St Kilda has already been massacred by injury.

Players that are missing from the outset include Jarryn Geary, Rowan Marshall, Paddy Ryder, Max King, Brad Crouch, Ben Paton, Dan Hannebery, while James Frawley was apparently coaxed out of retirement to be a best-22 player, and he will miss three months of footy.

It leaves the club heavily depleted and on the back foot, despite an awesome rise in 2020 and many expecting bigger steps forward to be taken.

Of course, one would expect an excellent coach like Brett Ratten to take advantage of the opportunity, which will see the likes of Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield take their games to new heights that even former Brownlow Medallists in the media will recognise how they play.

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Still, even with the really nice depth the Saints have developed, missing so many starters is sure to have an effect on the team and leaves them vulnerable to a more cohesive unit.

The opening three games will ultimately define St Kilda’s season.

Kicking off the season against GWS, Melbourne and Essendon, the Saints would expect themselves to win all three games and approach the following three against West Coast, Richmond and Port Adelaide with enough momentum to wreak some genuine havoc.

No longer can we carve those wins into the base of the tree, however, and I am concerned about the effect dropping one or two of those games will have on the group.

We’ve seen breathtaking footy, and we have seen puzzling footy from the Saints.

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Many believed that the club would challenge for top-four, even despite the strange recruitments of Brad Crouch and James Frawley.

A bad start to the season might make it a scrap for a finals spot.

For those at all interested, my final predictions are as follows:

1. Geelong
2. West Coast
3. Brisbane Lions
4. Richmond
5. Port Adelaide
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Melbourne
8. St Kilda
9. Fremantle
10. Gold Coast
11. Carlton
12. GWS
13. Collingwood
14. Sydney
15. North Melbourne
16. Essendon
17. Adelaide
18. Hawthorn

Premiers: Brisbane Lions
Runner up: West Coast
Brownlow: Clayton Oliver-Josh Dunkley (tie)
Coleman Medal: Tom J Lynch
Rising Star: Matt Rowell

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