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Opinion
In the wake of disappointing opening-round performances by the Bulldogs, Tigers, Cowboys and Sea Eagles, many will dismiss the significance of their losses.
Canterbury fans would argue that the bulk of their squad had never played a competitive game together, Wests loyalists might cite an unusual and appalling day of handling as the cause, while Cowboys boosters might reference the slick and powerful Panther machine as something they are not quite ready to conquer in their regrowth.
Even Des Hasler could identify the ever-present and intimidating nature of the Sydney Roosters as playing some role in his team’s capitulation on Sunday afternoon at the SCG.
Just as the ‘it’s only Round 1’ argument goes, fans will be seeking some form of mitigation around what for many were sobering and near-humiliating efforts.
However, as easy as it may be to write off an opening week loss, the flaws in performances are real. They require immediate attention and some adult conversations within the four walls of the footy club.
Wayne Bennett and Todd Payten obviously took that approach in rather savage dressing downs of the collective and specific individuals in their post-game media conferences.
Trent Barrett should potentially have been equally as forceful with his words after his troops were bashed from pillar to post by Newcastle’s pack at McDonald Jones Stadium last Friday.
Trent Barrett. (Photo by Jason O’Brien/Getty Images)
Yes, the season has just begun and there are matches galore to win and build momentum throughout the year. However, the weekend just passed was as important as any other and, statistically, patterns that hold up are often set within the first month.
Should another bad loss in Round 2 or 3 play out for any of the clubs in question, recent evidence suggests that it could well be too late to continue dreaming of a finals position in 2021.
After four matches of the pandemic-interrupted season, the teams destined to occupy the higher positions on the ladder had already firmly established themselves.
Minor-premiers-to-be Penrith sat second on seven competition points, the Storm occupied third with six, and the eventual third-placed Eels sat atop the ladder with eight points from a possible eight.
Canberra ended 2020 in fifth, from where they would advance to a preliminary final, and after the first month of play they were level with the Storm on six points.
The Chooks had just four points, placing them around the fringes of the top eight. Yet aside from them, the remaining members of the season-ending top five had more than established themselves as the teams to beat.
At the other end of the ladder, no side in the eventual bottom eight had earned more than four competition points.
The Dogs and Dragons looked rubbish to begin with and never really improved, while the Warriors and Titans had already set up disappointing years, despite a late flurry from the Gold Coast come season’s end.
While one week alone is obviously not a definitive sample size, it should be noted that seven of the eventual top-eight teams won on the opening weekend in 2020. In 2019, four of the top five secured the first two points on offer. In 2017, it was opening-round wins for all of the eventual top four, and 2016 saw six of the end-of-season top eight secure Round 1 points.
2018 was something of an outlier, with just four of the top eight winning, yet the data suggests that the importance of a quick start has never been more important.
In modern-day sport, massaging one’s way into a season after a disappointing start is seemingly a thing of the past and any notions fans may have that a poor performance is merely that, doesn’t appear supported by the early patterns of recent NRL seasons.
As a Dogs fan, what I saw on Friday scared the heck out of me. I’m guessing a few Sea Eagles people out there might be feeling the same way, as may the long-embattled supporters of the Wests Tigers.
Yes, it may only be Round 1, however there was enough on show to already suggest that a few teams may well be whacking away on a dud conveyance in 2021, and that others are certain to be in the mix once again.