Hello Slipper Day! There are five ripping Group 1 races. It’s like Christmas. And it’s looking like a wet one.
I’ve crunched my numbers looking down the barrel of a heavy ten surface, which rules out a couple of the big guns. I’ll change the format a bit today, with the Golden Slipper front and centre and the rest of the program below.
Race 7 – 10 O’president (one unit)
O’president has flown under the radar a little after winning with a soft lead in the Skyline, but he still put them away there and shapes to sit just off a solid tempo in this. His two wins were when there was give in the ground and he’ll be solid at the end considering he won his maiden at 1250 metres.
The other chances? Stay Inside is a big danger. He was boxed in terribly in the big lead-up a fortnight ago. Before that he showed great acceleration on a slow seven track. He could put them away if he sees daylight.
Four Moves Ahead is the only unbeaten horse in the race and will like the wet. Mallory is the blowout. She was too far back last time and has a better gate here.
As for the favourite Profiteer? He’s a gun and could do it, but I’m leaving him out of my numbers thinking the wet track will get the better of him. If pressed for a trifecta I’ll be looking to box 8, 10, 12, 13 and 15.
2020-21 season (since 1 August)
Outlay: 408 units
Return: 530.3 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – 2 Doubtland (one unit)
This is a tricky little race to start. I’m happy with Doubtland. He’s won at Group 2 level over the 1200 metres, he’s unbeaten second up and boasts a dominant win on a heavy track. Isotope could be anything but is untried on a bog. Private Eye is the other mud runner.
Race 2 – 7 Dadoozdart (one unit)
Big Daddy has been running okay without challenging. Back in Ireland he won a listed race over 2500 metres in heavy going (that’s Irish heavy). This horse will relish the trip and conditions. Sacramento has earned another weight rise here. He’s brilliant. Favourite Moon is an interesting runner as Addeybb’s travelling companion from the UK.
Race 3 – 13 Emanate (two units)
It is an interesting move by James Cummings to split the two Godolphin horses and run Tailleur in the Galaxy. They both win. Emanate meets Vulpine two kilos better after getting done last time. Before that she bolted in at Rosehill with some give in the track. No knock Vulpine, while beware I Am Eloquent. He’s two-from-two on heavy.
Race 4 – 1 Addeybb (no bet)
You’re not getting much of a price, but Addeybb was far too good for Verry Elleegant in this race last year, and better on a heavy track next start. I see a repeat here, even recognising the mare is an absolute superstar and won brilliantly last start. Maybe doubles into things later on, but probably just a watching brief.
Race 5 – 11 Montefilia (one unit)
Montefilia was too good for Lion’s Roar at this trip in the spring. She steps up from 1400 metres for this but has class and David Payne knows his stuff. Mo’unga is the horse everyone wants to be on. He should have won last time but I’ll leave him at the price having his first go at 2000 metres.
Race 6 – 2 Avilius (three units)
Avilius was just super fresh at the mile, where he shaped to win a blanket finish at top level despite not being at peak fitness. He’s great at Rosehill and great in the wet. The price being offered is generous. I was inclined to lean Funstar’s way initially considering her old Probabeel form, but noticed a few comments about her not being comfortable in the wet, particularly after last year’s Golden Eagle when she went backwards on a similar surface to what she’s likely to see in this. Junipal could bob up at odds. It is an interesting fresh assignment from the Maher/Eustace team.
Race 7 – 10 O’president (one unit)
Race 8 – 13 Tailleur (two units)
It is another great Galaxy field this year, with several horses beautifully placed at the handicap conditions. Tailleur is the pick of these. She’s done a bit of a Stawell Gift job, moving nicely through the grades under the radar to the point she gets in here on the limit with 51 kilos. She’s an absolute mudlark too. Wild Ruler has never run on a heavy track but is a ripping colt favoured at the weights. Splintex will love the sting out and was two lengths off Classique Legend in the spring at equal weights. Eduardo is a gun but has been punished by the handicapper.
Race 9 – 9 Attention Run (one unit)
I’m very interested in Attention Run to finish the day. She’s first up into this distance race, which is unusual, but tracks well against her fresh win here over 1800 metres in June. She’s the right price considering her preference for the wet. She’s Ideel is a great chance but too short in an open race and a lot of the other runners may be found out on a tough surface.
Good luck everyone. It’s a monster day with a lot of variables. Hopefully the right ones win.