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Opinion

Dismantling of Waratahs shows another layer to the Rebels

22nd March, 2021
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22nd March, 2021
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As Matt To’omua ran in one of the best individual tries of Super Rugby AU and of Australian rugby more broadly over the last few seasons on Friday night, it occurred to me that in 2021 there is a lot more to the Melbourne Rebels than first appeared in their opening game of the year.

If you think back to their very pragmatic, very deliberate game plan to nullify the Queensland Reds in Round 2, and then think about their displays since then and particularly in Melbourne against the Waratahs, you realise that they have suddenly become one of the more adaptable Australian sides in recent memory.

In fact, my first thought was to go back to how Ewen McKenzie had the championship-winning Queensland Reds of 2011 playing completely differently from one week to the other, all based on who they were playing.

For the removal of all doubt – and this really shouldn’t need clarifying – no, I’m not suggesting the 2021 Melbourne Rebels are as good a side as the 2011 Queensland Reds.

But when you think about how wide a variation we’ve seen in the Rebels approaches to their four games this year, you’ll see that my point makes sense.

For one thing, they carried twice as much and made twice as many metres against the Brumbies in Canberra as they did against the Reds in Brisbane. But that’s to be expected, you might say, because they had 53 percent of the ball in Canberra and only 39 percent of it in Brisbane.

But then they only had 40 percent of the ball against the Waratahs in Melbourne – despite dominating territory with more than 70 percent of the split – and they still managed to carry almost twice as much as they did against the Reds and made more than twice the ground.

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Against the Reds, they carried just 59 times for 225 metres. Every game since they’ve made at least 450 metres, and cracked five hundred against the Western Force in Perth. They carried 114 times against the Brumbies, 140 times against the Force, and 98 times against the Waratahs.

Interestingly, the backs carried 57 percent of the time against the Reds a month ago and 59% against the Waratahs. It was a neat 50-50 forwards-backs split when they took the physicality to the Brumbies, and just over half for the backs against the Force.

I’m interested to note that the Rebels’ backs have been doing the bulk of the carrying, given I and most of you have all noted how little shape there appears to be about their attack. I’d love to find the time to see how this compares to the other sides.

But have the Rebels kicked more against certain teams this year? Surprisingly, no, they haven’t.

Respectively, they kicked 22 times against the Reds, 20 times against the Brumbies, and 25 times against both the Force and Waratahs.

So even when it felt like they kicked the cover off it in Brisbane, they really didn’t. In fact, it was entirely consistent.

Marika Koroibete of the Rebels is congratulated

Marika Koroibete. (Photo by Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images)

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What has varied is how often they kicked relative to how often they carried in those games.

Against the Reds in Brisbane, the Rebels averaged 2.7 carries for every kick. Clearly, they wanted Queensland to have the ball, and preferred defending and slowing the Reds down at the breakdown.

Against the Waratahs, where they had a similar share of possession but carried nearly twice and much and made more than twice as many metres, they averaged 3.9 carries per kick. Against both the Brumbies and Force, with at least 50 percent possession, they averaged 5.7 carries per kick; both of them being games where possession was as important to their plan as the end of the ground they occupied.

The changing number of carries per kicks indicates variable approaches, but also an improved efficiency within their carrying. The Rebels were able to carry more and make more ground, thus setting up better positions to kick from.

This improved efficiency also comes with an improvement in their second phase play, where against the Brumbies, Force, and Waratahs, the Rebels offloaded 11, 8, and 13 times.

Against the Reds in Brisbane, where they kicked once for every four passes? Just one offload.

What of Matt To’omua’s play? How do his kick/pass/run numbers stack up? Unsurprisingly in line with the team’s.

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To’omua’s carry numbers don’t change a lot across the four games, ranging from five against Queensland to nine against the Force.

But he passed twice as many times against both the Brumbies and Force as he did against the Reds, and nearly twice as much as against the Waratahs. And he actually kicked more against the Brumbies and Force, when the Rebels carried the most.

And To’omua’s pass numbers don’t directly correlate, but Reece Hodge’s carry numbers don’t spike the same way in the same games. The Rebels attack still seems a bit unstructured and shapeless.

Their back three carried a lot more against the Waratahs than they did against the Reds, but that’s more because Tom Pincus and Lachie Anderson have tried to match Marika Koroibete’s involvements as they get more used to the Rebels methods.

Clearly, the Rebels have shown an adaptability from week to week, and it’s also clear that they have found a more efficient way to make ground than at the start of the season, even with similar shares of total possession.

The question for the Rebels is going to be how they start taking advantage of this adaptability properly, and it’s a question that will remain and hover over them until the use it to topple the Brumbies and Reds above them on the Australian table.

It will probably remain until they can beat them consistently, in fact, and it will equally apply for facing the Crusaders and whoever happen to be the next-best team in New Zealand when and if the trans-Tasman convergence happens.

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Importantly, the Rebels will spend the bye week back home in Melbourne on the back of a really strong win on home turf, their first in more than a year.

For a team that spent more than three months on the road last year, and another month this year to ensure the competition started as scheduled, the phycological advantage of home comforts can’t be underestimated.

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But, of course, we’ve been in very similar positions with the Melbourne Rebels before; becoming convinced that they’re about the start challenging the best teams.

It might just be that their biggest challenge is convincing themselves.

Brett McKay is back writing for The Roar, and is also writing weekly rugby columns for ABC Sport.

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