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Opinion
By the end of this weekend we will almost certainly be able to predict which teams are genuine contenders and which teams are going to vie for the wooden spoon in 2021.
And unfortunately for the Brisbane Broncos, if they lose to the Bulldogs this weekend they are little chance of making the finals – and a strong chance to get a second wooden spoon in a row (and ever).
This week marks Round 3 and the stats are overwhelming that the results for each side at the conclusion of this weekend’s games are a very accurate barometer of how their seasons will pan out.
Going back to 1980 there has only been one side that has gone on to win the premiership having lost the first three games of the season: the North Queensland Cowboys in 2015.
That is a total outlier.
And if you have only won a single match by the end of Round 3 the chances are less than 20 per cent – one in five – of being that year’s premier.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
With that in mind the Broncos, Cowboys, Bulldogs, Wests Tigers and Sea Eagles premiership chances look dire, especially if they don’t manage a win this weekend.
Only one of those sides – either the Bulldogs or the Broncos – is guaranteed to get a win on the board as they are playing each other.
The Sea Eagles are away to the Dragons, the Wests Tigers are away to the Knights, while the Cowboys host the Titans. There is a real possibility that four NRL sides could be without a win after three games.
Curtis Woodward pointed out earlier this week that five sides starting off the season with two losses is the second worst result in the NRL’s history, with it only being exceeded in 2007, 2016 and 2020 when on each occasion six sides were winless after two games.
He also pointed out that all five of this year’s sides not yet to sing their club song in the sheds also were cellar dwellers in 2020.
Given the performances we’ve seen so far, it is hard to imagine the Bulldogs or Cowboys demonstrating any significant improvement. Similarly, the Broncos “Kevolution” (a term that should be killed with fire) has started off with all the success of “New Coke.”
In fairness to the Wests Tigers and the Sea Eagles, they have both come up against 2020 preliminary finalists first up. However, things need to change for the better immediately if there is to be any hope this season.
A sobering thought for all five of those sides is that 70 per cent of the time of the time the eventual wooden spooner was not in the previous year’s finals series. And for those death riding the Broncos – and there are an awful lot of you – 21.8 per cent of the time in the NRL era teams win back-to-back wooden spoons.
There is little is the Broncos performances or roster that give any suggestion that an upturn in form is anywhere near.
And it isn’t just the winless sides who should be nervous. There are six sides who are all on just one win. Should they lose this weekend their chances will be less than 20 per cent too.
The Sharks, Warriors, Rabbitohs, Storms, Titans and Dragons are all in that predicament.
Not the least of these sides is last year’s premiers the Melbourne Storm. This Thursday they travel to a sodden Panther Park for the grand final rematch.
Still missing Dale Finucane and Harry Grant – and with Felise Kafusi suspended – there is a very real chance that Craig Bellamy’s boys will find themselves still outside the top eight come Friday morning. The last time the Storm had only won a single game after Round 3 was in 2008.
Craig Bellamy (Photo by Robert Prezioso/Getty Images)
The Sharks come up against the best looking Eels side I’ve seen since 2009 and will do well to get the points at Bankwest Stadium. The Warriors travel to GIO Stadium with a fairly good record of beating the Raiders at home, but it will be a tough game.
The Titans could beat the Cowboys and the Dragons must be a chance against the Sea Eagles. But neither result will be easy. Win and each of those sides will be in a statistical group that 38.1 of the premiers since 1980 were in after Round 3. Lose and they are down in the under 20 per cent pit.
At the other end of the spectrum there are five sides who all have a chance of winning their first three games. Even if they lose this weekend, the Roosters, Panthers, Knights, Eels and Raiders will still be statistically in the hunt.
However, the sides that manage it will be in the position that seventy per cent of the premiers back to 1980 were in at the equivalent stage of the season.
And just as Woodward pointed out the poor start for five sides, the same amount could be undefeated after the first three games.
The Panthers have to be even money against the Storm, The Roosters must be a good chance against the Rabbitohs. The Eels would fancy their chances against the Sharks, as would the Knights against the Wests Tigers. While the Raiders form has been patchy so far, they are definitely a chance against the Warriors.
(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
Usually by Round 10 you can predict with a fair degree of accuracy the contenders for the top eight, as well as the genuine title contenders.
If this trend of winners and losers continues – as form suggests it might – that make up may be fairly clear by the end of Round 5.
This isn’t to say that teams can’t improve and go on a run. They can.
The Tigers did it in 1988, the Raiders did it in 1989, the Bulldogs did it in 1995, The Wests Tigers came home with a wet sail in 2005, as did Parramatta in 2009. And who can forget the Cowboys run in 2017?
However, poor early season form doesn’t just mean a side has to make up points on the ladder, they also have to face their own doubts. In matches playing catch up footy is never ideal and often goes wrong.
The pressure of playing ladder catch up can be felt right through a club. It doesn’t help keep things calm and relaxed. It doesn’t help players make good decisions. It is hard to dig upwards.
Conversely, clubs with a good start to the season have relaxed confidence and self-belief. They find it much easier to execute their game plan and focus on one game at a time. Success tends to breed success.
By the end of this weekend there is a very real chance that we will have five sides who are at very short odds to make the finals and the likely contenders for the 2021 title.
And conversely we may have four sides who are little chance of making the top eight, let alone winning the premiership, with the Broncos being at the head of that list.
The Cowboys must brutally back Todd Payten to the hilt right now
Still on sides struggling without a win, already we are hearing rumours out of North Queensland that players are offside with new coach Todd Payten.
After just two games the players who can boast just 14 wins from their last 48 matches are already leaking rumblings of discontent.
That’s just pathetic from those players.
What Payten achieved with the Warriors last season clearly showed that he can coach. While he is a relatively new first grade coach, successful coaches wield unquestioned authority and get buy in from their players. That’s what the Cowboys squad should be doing right now if they expect to play first grade in 2021.
Todd Payten (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Can you even imagine a player questioning Craig Bellamy or leaking discontent? You just do what he says. Like Cam Smith, Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk, et al did. Bellamy got buy in early and look how it worked out.
The Cowboys players who want to make trouble should either stop it immediately and get on “the bus” or pack their bags.
The Cowboys management would be mad not to back him to the hilt right now and get rid of the dissenting voices, no matter who they are.