The Roar
The Roar

AFL
Advertisement

Opinion

Individual voting and team ratings ahead of Round 2

Autoplay in... 6 (Cancel)
Up Next No more videos! Playlist is empty -
Replay
Cancel
Next
Roar Guru
24th March, 2021
2

Each season, our “Following Football” organisation tracks well over a dozen sources – coach and media votes along with stats and fantasy scoring – to determine the most outstanding player for the AFL season.

Over the past six seasons (not that this is any verification of the methodology), our results have predicted the Brownlow five times, choosing ruckman Max Gawn instead of Tom Mitchell (our second place finisher) in 2018.

At present, we’re utilising 17 sources for our scoring. Three others have yet to produce first round results, and in the past those have been reticent to put out any numbers until the first two or three rounds have played out. But for now, here are the top 20 individual point earners from Round 1.

1. Travis Boak, Port Adelaide – 47
2. Taylor Walker, Adelaide – 46
3. Dustin Martin, Richmond – 45
4. Callum Mills, Sydney – 44
5. Tom Mitchell, Hawthorn – 38
6. Steven May, Melbourne – 37
7. Bailey Smith, Western Bulldogs – 36
8. Darcy Moore, Collingwood – 35
9. Tom Hickey, Sydney – 34
10. Errol Gulden, Sydney – 34
11. Tim Membrey, St Kilda – 33
12. Oscar Allen, West Coast – 33
13. Orazio Fantasia, Port Adelaide – 32
14. Will Day, Hawthorn – 28
15. Tim Kelly, West Coast – 27
16. Jack Riewoldt, Richmond – 26
17. Isaac Heeney, Sydney – 25
18. Andrew McGrath, Essendon – 24
19. Jake Lever, Melbourne – 23
20. Clayton Oliver, Melbourne – 23

And by team, here are the comparable totals for each team’s lists after the first round.
1. Sydney – 213
2. Port Adelaide – 186
3. Hawthorn – 182
4. Western Bulldogs – 171
5. Adelaide – 171
6. Richmond – 166
7. Melbourne – 164
8. West Coast – 160
9. St Kilda – 136
10. Essendon – 131
11. GWS Giants – 121
12. Collingwood – 111
13. Carlton – 111
14. Gold Coast – 106
15. Geelong – 105
16. Fremantle – 104
17. North Melbourne – 104
18. Brisbane – 92

Additionally, here are the current ELO-Following Football ratings for each team, including the change from their initial rating of the season (mostly a carry-over from 2020). You’ll notice that for every first-round match-up, one team went up by the same amount their opponent went down by, so that the sum of all ratings remains constant at 900 (and the average at 50.0).

1. Richmond (1-0) – 70.0, up 0.1
2. Port Adelaide (1-0) – 66.9, up 2.4
3. Geelong (0-1) – 62.0, down 5.3
4. Western Bulldogs (1-0) – 59.3, up 1.3
5. West Coast (1-0) – 56.4, up 0.8
6. Brisbane (0-1) – 55.6, down 6.9
7. St Kilda (1-0) – 55.5, up 0.9
8. Sydney (1-0) – 49.4, up 6.9
9. GWS Giants (0-1) – 49.3, down 0.9
10. Collingwood (0-1) – 49.2, down 1.3
11. Carlton (0-1) – 48.3, down 0.1
12. Melbourne (1-0) – 46.7, up 2.4
13. Fremantle (0-1) – 45.5, down 2.4
14. Gold Coast (0-1) – 42.1, down 0.8
15. Hawthorn (1-0) – 41.7, up 0.1
16. Essendon (0-1) – 39.3, down 0.1
17. Adelaide (1-0) – 37.9, up 5.3
18. North Melbourne (0-1) – 25.0, down 2.4

In theory, if our forecasts were ever somehow “perfect”, no ratings would need to be adjusted – and in fact, both the Richmond-Carlton game and the Hawthorn-Essendon games came very close to predictions, while wins by West Coast and St Kilda fell close to rating expectations.

In contrast, of course, neither Brisbane nor Geelong were anticipated to lose last weekend, and the change in ratings reflect that. It was an unusual round in that none of the nine defeated teams were able to surpass expectations and thereby raise their ratings despite the loss; had Adelaide fallen short, for example, they would still have lifted their rating significantly, if not by five full points.

Advertisement

Finally, here’s a reminder of the predictions produced by the ELO-FF ratings for Round 2 (detailed in a previous lasagna-based article); Carlton to draw with Collingwood; Geelong by ten over Brisbane; Sydney by 15.4 over Adelaide; Port by 31 over Essendon; St Kilda by ten over Melbourne; Gold Coast by 21 over North; Richmond by 29 over Hawthorn; Bulldogs by 11 over West Coast; Fremantle by one over GWS.

We’ll continue to keep you updated as the season progresses on both individual and team fronts.

close