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Opinion

The Chosen One could live up to his name in the Tancred Stakes

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Roar Rookie
28th March, 2021
13

The weight-for-age Tancred Stakes at Rosehill Gardens shapes as an intriguing race this Saturday.

It looks like an open race with potential value in betting. There are various question marks over those currently favoured in the market order.

The Chosen One (NZ) presents as a good each-way play, as he chases his first Group 1 victory. He currently sits on the fifth line of betting, paying $11 with PlayUp.

The five-year-old son of Tavistock was good first up in New Zealand, finishing second. He then came to Sydney second up and ran okay under the circumstances, coming from last in a race where it was advantageous to be on or close to the speed.

He looks much more suited going up to 2400 metres in the Tancred. The Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman team have proven time and time again how good they are at peaking their horses for the staying races.

His Caulfield Cup run at this trip last preparation was excellent. He finished third behind Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck. He finished within a length of those two on that occasion, which reads really well going into a race like this.

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That was under handicap conditions however, so the Tancred presents a different challenge. That said, the proven weight-for-age horses currently in the market have their queries.

Colette is currently the favourite for the race, but she looks a risky betting proposition going up to the 2400 metres.

While she won the ATC Oaks at that distance last year, she may now be better suited to shorter distances at this point in her career, considering her electric performances in the Golden Eagle (1500 metres) and Apollo Stakes (1400 metres).

A good track looks very possible too based on current weather forecasts, which would not be in her favour.

Melody Belle is coming across from New Zealand for it and deserves to be short in the market given her class and record-breaking Group 1 tally. However, she has to be a question mark running at 2400 metres for the first time in her 38-start career. Can she stay?

With this in mind, The Chosen One (NZ) looks to be a good value bet at $11.