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Opinion

Individual voting and team ratings ahead of Round 3

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Roar Guru
31st March, 2021
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Each season at Following Football, we track a combination of sources – coach and media votes along with stats and fantasy scoring – to find an overall most outstanding player for the AFL season.

Over the past six seasons (not that this is any verification of methodology), our results have correctly predicted the Brownlow five times, choosing ruckman Max Gawn over Tom Mitchell (our second place) in 2018.

We’re currently using 22 distinct sources for our scoring in 2021. One more has yet to produce results from the first two rouds; it usually begins reporting after three or four rounds are in the books. But from the rest of the bag, here are the top 20 individual players after Round 2.

1. Taylor Walker (after Round 1: 2nd) – 120 votes
2. Dustin Martin (3rd) – 109.5
3. Clayton Oliver (20th) – 88.5
4. Darcy Moore (8th) – 84.5
5. Errol Gulden (10th) – 78
6. Zak Butters (unranked) – 76
7. Travis Boak (1st) – 75.5
8. Jack Macrae, (12th) – 75
9. Tom Mitchell (5th) – 72
10. Marcus Bontempelli (unranked) – 67.5
11. Andrew Brayshaw (unranked) – 66
12. Callum Mills (4th) – 65.5
13. Bailey Smith (7th) – 61.5
14. Joel Selwood (unranked) – 58.5
15. Isaac Heeney (17th) – 57
16. Taylor Adams (unranked) – 51.5
17. Dougal Houston (unranked) – 51
18. Tim Membrey (11th) – 50.5
19. Orazio Fantasia (13th) – 50
20. Oscar Allen (12th) – 49

And by team, here are the totals for each team’s members after Round 2, along with each team’s current leading vote getter:

1. Port Adelaide (Last Week: 2nd) – 479 (Butters – 76)
2. Sydney (1st) – 469.5 (Gulden – 78)
3. Western Bulldogs (4th) – 440 (Macrae – 75)
4. Melbourne (7th) – 416 (Oliver – 88.5)
5. Richmond (6th) – 381 (Martin – 109.5)
6. Adelaide (5th) – 358.5 (Walker – 120)
7. Collingwood (12th) – 355.5 (Moore – 84.5)
8. Gold Coast (14th) – 351 (Noah Anderson – 48.5)
9. West Coast (8th) – 349.5 (Allen – 49)
10. Hawthorn (3rd) – 334.5 (Mitchell – 72)
11. Fremantle (16th) – 325 (Brayshaw – 66)
12. Geelong (15th) – 304.5 (Selwood – 58.5)
13. St Kilda (9th) – 299.5 (Membrey – 50.5)
14. Essendon (10th) – 254 (Andrew McGrath – 38.5)
15. Carlton (13th) – 235.5 (Sam Walsh – 41.5)
16. GWS Giants (11th) – 228 (Harry Perryman – 26)
17. Brisbane (18th) – 205.5 (Eric Hipwood – 30.5)
18. North Melbourne (17th) – 198.5 (Jayden Stephenson – 29.5)

Next are the current ELO-Following Football ratings for each team, including the change from their Round 1 rating. You’ll notice that for every R2 match-up, one team went up by the same amount their opponent went down by, so that the sum of all ratings remains constant at 900 (and the average at 50.0).

1. Richmond (2-0) – 1st – 70.0, no change
2. Port Adelaide (2-0) – 2nd – 69.8, up 2.9
3. Geelong (1-1) – 3rd – 60.8, down 1.2
4. Western Bulldogs (2-0) – 4th – 58.8, down 0.5
5. West Coast (1-1) – 5th – 56.9, up 0.5
6. Brisbane (0-2) – 6th – 56.8, up 1.2
7. St Kilda (1-1) – 7th – 52.0, down 3.5
8. Collingwood (1-1) – 10th – 51.8, up 2.6
9. Sydney (2-0) – 9th – 51.6, up 2.2
10. Melbourne (2-0) – 12th – 50.2, up 3.5
11. Fremantle (1-1) – 13th – 49.0, up 3.5
12. Gold Coast (1-1) – 14th – 46.8, up 4.7
13. GWS Giants (0-2) – 8th – 45.8, down 3.5
14. Carlton (0-2) – 11th – 45.6, down 2.6
15. Hawthorn (1-1) – 15th – 41.7, no change
16. Essendon (0-2) – 16th – 36.4, down 2.9
17. Adelaide (1-1) – 17th – 35.7, down 2.2
18. North Melbourne (0-2) – 18th – 20.3, down 4.7

In theory, if our forecasts were ever perfect, no ratings would ever need to be adjusted – and, in fact, the Richmond-Hawthorn game came so close to perfect that neither rating needed changing. while the win by the Bulldogs over West Coast landed very near rating expectations. Notice, too, that despite winning, both the Bulldogs and Geelong lost rating points by failing to match the predicted point spread, and similarly the Eagles and Lions inched upwards despite their losses.

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Finally, here are the raw numerical predictions produced by the ELO-FF ratings for Round 3.

Brisbane by two over Collingwood
Western Bulldogs by 37.5 over North Melbourne
Gold Coast by seven over Adelaide
Richmond by 21 over Sydney
St Kilda by 16.5 over Essendon
Port Adelaide by eight over West Coast
Carlton by 4.5 over Fremantle
Melbourne by 1.5 over GWS
Geelong by 19 over Hawthorn

So far this season, the ELO-FF system is 14 for 18. We will continue to keep you updated as the season progresses on both individual and team fronts.

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