Back to Rosehill this Saturday on a drying surface after a cracking Slipper meeting.
It’s another big day with some ripping contests, I particularly like a couple of things at odds late in the card.
2020-21 season (since 1 August)
Outlay: 420 units
Return: 535.4 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 2: 3 Shared Ambition (two units)
I’m quite keen on Shared Ambition, the improving track is a big plus and his win over Mount Popa fresh is very good for this. The market is right with Master of Wine as the main danger, he’s on the quick back-up after being good last week against Verry Elleegant. I have Aliferous as a value option.
Race 3: 1 Yaletown (one unit)
Yaletown was okay last time, will lead here and should relish the extra trip. He’ll kick strongly. Cherry Tortoni is class, as is Young Werther, while The Frontman brings New Zealand form and is the point of difference.
Race 4: 5 Sweet Deal (two units)
Sweet Deal can return to her form from last prep where she won the big money Hunter. She’s been reasonable this prep, and the trainer has given her a sneaky trial prior to this, she should be ready to go. It’s a very good race, Icebath and Greysful Glamour are both nice options, Krone is flying but is up in weight, Rich Hips is not the worst.
Race 5: 11 Pandemic (three units)
My numbers give Pandemic a clear edge in this, his Caulfield win on Boxing Day was a big wow. There’s a very good lot behind him, my boy Jay Ford has Peltzer taking on the older horses, Prime Candidate rates well and is the likely leader. Easy Eddie and Signore Fox are in the mix.
Race 6: 1 Personal (one unit)
I’m a big fan of Personal and she was great last time chasing. The trip is a big plus. Harmony Rose is a fair way back in my numbers, I’m scared of Force of Will, the Kiwi looking for five wins on the go.
Race 7: 1 Sir Dragonet (one unit)
The Dragon was okay last week and is great odds for this. Mellody Belle is world-class. Nickajack Cave is a sneaky chance of being in the finish – he’ll win in Oz.
Race 8: 10 Handle the Truth (three units)
What a contest! Handle the Truth rates well on top on the back of his track record win last time. Rock is easily the next best, Yao Dash pops up from time to time and Buffalo River is next best from in front.
Race 9: 11 My Gold Bracelet (one unit)
I’ll finish with a speculator, My Gold Bracelet didn’t set the world on fire last prep but had excuses. This is her class and she’s down in weight. I’m a big fan of Jay Ford and Great News but she has bigger and better targets in the next few weeks. Starspangled Rodeo also rated well.
Good luck everyone, may the track play fair and life be good to you all. Please keep me honest throughout the day by adding your comments below.