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Opinion
Unless you’re betting on Perth or Tassie races today, this Good Friday is going to be a rather quiet one for punters, which should give you more of a chance to do the form for Saturday.
There’s Group racing at both Caulfield and Rosehill, but the premier action is at Sydney with a number of bumper events.
The good news is that there’s no rain forecast for Sydney, which means the track should get close to a Good 4 by the time the feature events jump.
Good luck if you’re having a punt and remember to gamble responsibly.
Track rated Good 4 at time of writing. Rail out 6m entire circuit.
Race 6 at 3:35pm – $125,000 Robert Taranto Handicap (1000m)
This will be a hot race with six of the 11 runners resuming from a spell. With a lot of early speed on the map, I’m expecting to see some tired horses late, which could open it up for a swooper.
Alfa Oro is the current favourite and is expected to be right up on the speed from barrier six, but I daresay it won’t be an uncontested lead if he finds the front.
He hasn’t raced since a fourth placing in the Group 2 Caulfield Sprint back in October and even though his first-up record is excellent, I’m going to risk him.
The value could be Sword of Mercy, who was really good in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate back in February and has been freshened for this. She won’t lead and could be the fresh horse late on the scene.
Suggested bet: Sword of Mercy (#4) each-way.
(Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Race 7 at 4:15pm – $160,000 Group 3 Easter Cup (2000m)
I have backed a few Easter Cup winners over the years but this is a tricky assignment. The obvious pick would have been Persan, but he drew the car park, which makes it a little tricker but not impossible.
He’s the class horse so I’m going to have half of my stake on him, and the other half on a value runner in Mahamedeis, who does go well on his home track.
The Nick Ryan-trained gelding will need some luck, but he’s been racing consistently without much of it lately, so he’s due for a turnaround in fortune. Let’s hope it is this Saturday.
Suggest bet: Half stake on Persan (#2) and Mahamedeis (#11) to win.
Track rated Soft 5 at time of writing. Rail out 6m entire circuit.
Race 5 at 3:15pm – $160,000 Group 3 Star Kingdom Stakes (1200m)
Easy Eddie backs up from the Galaxy last week where I thought he was OK without being spectacular. Assuming he’ll like the firmer footing and the drop in class, I think he can win this at double-figure odds.
His record on soft tracks is excellent, he’s been in the prizemoney nine out of 12 starts at Rosehill, and he has a good enough barrier to make his own luck on Saturday.
It does appear to be an open field and if he’s okay to back-up from last week, he’ll be right in the finish.
Suggested bet: Easy Eddie (#5) each-way.
Race 6 at 3:55pm – $500,000 Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m)
There’s no shortage of class of three-year-old fillies in this race and every runner is coming into the event on the back of a win or placing.
Harmony Rose is the early favourite and should remain that way up until they jump. She’s building a handy resume with three wins and two placings from her five starts.
Her performance against the colts in the Randwick Guineas was superlative and if she repeats that tomorrow I can’t see her losing. She’ll relish the extra 400m.
Harmony Rose is my best bet of the day.
Suggested bet: Harmony Rose (#2) to win.
Race 7 at 4:35pm – $1.5 million Group 1 Tancred Stakes (2400m)
Some 14 horses will vie for a huge purse in this race and I reckon about a dozen of them could win on any given day. That’s why I’m looking for a little bit of value.
Angel of Truth hasn’t won for more than two years, which is of some concern, but the way he matched it with Verry Elleegant and Addeybb last week was more than promising. To be beaten 1.8 lengths by Verry Elleegant in a Group 1 says he is going well.
His performance in the Australian Cup was also encouraging.
We know Angel of Truth can run the 2400m, having won the ATC Derby at Randwick in 2019, so the distance shouldn’t be a worry.
Kerrin McEvoy just needs to preserve as much energy as possible so he has enough speed at the end to outsprint some of the classier types.
Suggested bet: Angel of Truth (#9) each-way.