After a pretty tough first day of the Championships, we return to Randwick for an absolute belter of a card for day this Saturday, featuring a ripping Queen Elizabeth and very open Sydney Cup.
It’s a tricky day with the best of the best in their grand finals, although with big fields there’s some value to be had. Conditions should be spot on, with the track in the good four range and the rail out three metres.
All bets are one unit this week with no absolute standouts.
2020-21 season (since 1 August)
Outlay: 446 units
Return: 552.7 units
No bet with lightly raced two-year-olds running over a mile.
Race 2 – 5 Acrophobic
I am happy to start with Acrophobic. He was good first-up, taking on the older horses. He was three wide the trip and widest around the turn but still ran on well. His run behind Peltzer in spring was good as well. The dry surface and the 1400-metre trip are good. Holyfield is interesting, having transferred to the Neasham camp. Private Eye has always had big fans.
Race 3 – 9 Electric Girl
Jay Ford has a winner in him this carnival, and Electric Girl may as well be the one. She was skittled behind Great News (now scratched from this) in her qualifier, but straightened up and hit the line well. It’s a deep race. Pandano is class, Darleb might pop up at a huge price and Price Aurelius is overs.
Race 4 – 7 Trifaccia
A $1 million sprint for the fillies – what Slipper? There are some nice types here. Crystal Bound and Najmaty have both dominated good class races in Melbourne. I’m taking the price with Trifaccia. She bolted home after settling lengths behind them in the Group 2 Riesling and pulling her ears off. Look out.
Race 5 – 3 Hungry Heart
Hungry Heart was too tough last time for the best of this lot in the Vinery. She stretches out to another distance test here but should handle it. This horse is favoured by dry conditions as well. The Kiwi filly Amarelinha is a big watch. I’ve given up on the New Zealand horses this carnival after being burnt, but she’s five from seven and looks class. Montefilia backs up from the Derby last week and has class. Duais was very good winning in lesser quality last week.
Race 6 – 6 Amish Boy
The three-year-olds race for a cool million here. I like Amish Boy, who ran well at huge odds against the big guns in the Newmarket last start. One length off Zoutori reads well here, as does his big run from well back in the Magic Millions. September Run has been running at the top level as well. I’ve pegged her as a Flemington specialist. She does have a turn of foot as well. Isotope was impressive at Rosehill, and there’s a big tip around for Wild Ruler.
Race 7 – 5 Chapada
Now stay with me. Chapada doesn’t win often, but I have him as a big hope stepping out to two miles with no weight on his back. His runs at Group 1 weight-for-age this prep have been very good, and the good track helps. It’s a very solid contest. South Australian challenger Good Idea will give a sight, She’s Ideel rates well, Favourite Moon was great at Rosehill, and even our buddy Sacramento shapes to run well.
Race 8 – Addeybb
I am sticking solid with Addeybb. I actually like the blinkers first time. He might just be too strong over the extra trip. No knock Verry Elleegant. What a win last time and the money has come for her. She’s already a superstar, and gets to glorified air if she takes this. Sir Dragonet is a threat, Mo’unga is an interesting starter on the Doncaster back-up, and there is Think It Over and Mugatoo. Wow, it is a superb race.
Race 9 – 3 Greysful Glamour
No doubt Probabeel is the one to beat here, and I’ll be taking Greysful Glamour to do the job at double-figure odds. She’s now fit and peaking, she should get an easy enough lead and Josh Parr is only a shade behind Tim Clark (and probably Louise Day) in getting leaders across the line. I had Rich Hips and Starelle as chances, while Colette is class but unknown on dry ground.
Race 10 – 8 Tricky Gal
It is no easier to finish today. Under my new precedent of no Kiwis first-up in Australia, I’m going around the favourite, and have landed with Tricky Gal. She can run second – eight from 20 – but has been in top form this prep behind Krone and Tailleur, and meets Seasons 4.5 kilos to the good from their clash in the Birthday Card. The 1200 metres and good surface are both a plus. It is a yes from me.
Good luck across the day. This Queen Elizabeth is top notch. Enjoy the card and please leave your thoughts and tips in the comments section below.