Two meetings to look at on Monday, with my attention at Maryborough and Goulburn. Down below are your best bets for the respective programs.
After getting away just in front last week, we head back to Randwick for the carnival finale featuring the All Aged Stakes.
It looks like a good day for a punt with some nice fields and good conditions. I’m pretty keen.
2020-21 season (since 1 August)
Outlay: 455 units
Return: 561.8 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – no bet
No race in the Highway with mixed country form.
Race 2 – 5 I Say Hello (one unit)
Yes, I’m still a sucker for those Coolmore blue silks. I Say Hello is an improver in this race for three-year-old girls. She’s only had four starts and is now facing its litmus test. Kiku has been impressive, particularly last start, and is the main danger.
Race 3 – 2 Khoekhoe (one unit)
It’s always a bit tricky backing horses backing up from the Derby. Have they peaked now and will they back up okay at a step back in distance? In this case, they have a solid class edge, and Khoekloe is probably favoured over Lion’s Roar heading back to 2000 metres. The price for the top weight is obviously a no for me as well. Of the spicy ones, Santadeal is an interesting runner at only his third start.
Race 4 – 9 Polly Grey (one unit)
I was a hard no on Polly Grey before her win last time, but on that performance I have her rating on top here at a price close to double figures. She doesn’t love a firm surface but should handle it and she’s running at career best level. I have Carif as a smoky if you’re spicy early on, otherwise Zeyrek and Zaaki should be competitive now they’ve done their first Australian run.
Race 5 – 2 Splintex (two units)
Sure, Splintex is probably at his best over 1000 or 1100 metres, but he’s in very well here at 1200 against this lot. His two lengths off Classique Legend at equal weight last spring is elite, if he runs it out he’s right in the finish. My next best was Easy Eddie. He was good last time and didn’t have a lot of space at the crucial end. I have a soft spot for Signore Fox and Deprive is A-1 if at his best.
Race 6 – 6 Maurice’s Medad (one unit)
It is an interesting race. I was going to leave it alone until I saw the price on little Maurice. He was gallant last week leading them up and should get a nice time of it in front. He’s run the mile before, which is a tick for me. The top three have a class edge. Hilal worries me the most.
Race 7 – 1 Kolding (two units)
Randwick yes, good track yes, class prevails in a ripping All Aged Stakes and Kolding can take it. Over a mile he’d be a lock but Team Waller will have him raring and he’s a good bet. My main risk is Dreamforce. He’s the other good Randwick form type. I was leaning his way earlier in the week but flipped to Kolding mainly due to his brilliance and overall record.
Race 8 – 5 Handle The Truth (one unit)
Yes, he was disappointing last time, but the tough run got the better of him and he was cuddled late. The start before he had clear galloping room and broke the Randwick track record. He’s got it. Starspangled Rodeo and Rocha Clock were the dangers. Nudge has burnt me before and gets too far back to bet on at his price.
Race 9 – 14 Epic Dan (one unit)
I am finishing with a speculator by taking Epic Dan. It seems a lot of horses will come through via other channels. I’ve rated Dan above this mob at any old price. Definitely throw this horse into quaddies and other late afternoon plays.