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Opinion
It says something about the simplicity of a competition format, that for the second season running, it’s taken until the last round to decide the Super Rugby AU finalists.
Furthermore, the second versus third qualifying final as a precursor to the final has yet again ensured teams have plenty to play for to the very end of the season, all the while keeping interest in the games as high as ever.
It’s worth mulling on this for a moment; had Rugby Australia followed New Zealand Rugby’s lead with just a single first versus second final as was only just introduced into Super Rugby Aotearoa this year, the Queensland Reds and Brumbies would have been locked in by Round 6 at the latest.
Instead, the race for third place has not only kept competition interest high throughout, but it also forced the teams in said race to lift their game over the closing rounds.
And in the end, it kind of feels right that the Western Force won through to claim third spot.
No other Australian team has won their last three games, and the obvious comparison is the way the Chiefs are in the box seat for the Aotearoa final. Like the Force, the Chiefs have won three straight since their last bye but had also won two in a row before that.
Again, like the Force, it’s been a hell of a bounce back after a winless domestic campaign in 2020.
What might be most exciting about the Force’s run though is the belief within the squad that must be exploding after three close, last-ditch wins.
It started with a 78th minute Domingo Miotti conversion of a Tim Anstee try to knock off the Melbourne Rebels 16-15 in Round 8. That win was their second away from Perth, giving them some recency of winning on the road, something that has been historically difficult over the 25 years of Super Rugby and especially in finals.
The following week, they knocked off the ‘Tahs at home, but made their home supporters sweat! Miotti converted a Jordan Olowofela try to trail by two with six to play, and then missed a long-range penalty attempt for the win in the 77th minute.
Tim Anstee. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
After the bell, the Force launched more than twenty phases into the New South Wales defence in attacking territory before winning an offside penalty, which Miotti made no mistake with.
Last week, it was a 74th minute play from Richard Kahui that looked hopeful at best but turned out to be brilliant, stabbing a left-foot grubber through for Olowofela to position himself brilliantly in front of his Waratahs opposite and celebrate it all the way to the line.
There are two names popping up there over the last three weeks, and they’ve been hugely influential since coming into the starting side at the start of this winning run.
Miotti has taken his time to grow into the Force’s game after missing the first few, but he’s become a stabilising head on the field since moving into the no.10 jersey. He’s got an excellent kicking game in general play but has also provided the perfect distribution role to link the sniping runs of Tomás Cubelli and the structured chaotic midfield play from Kahui and Kyle Godwin.
Olowofela is the other one, with four tries in his last two games giving a snapshot of not just his finishing abilities, but of why the Force were so keen on him.
And this finishing is another interesting point. 15 tries from the Force is only one better than the Rebels’ season tally, and equal with the Waratahs, but eight tries in this current three-game winning streak is a fair up-tick.
Of course, the Force winning through meant the Reds’ ambition of becoming the first Australian side to go through a Super Rugby season undefeated fell at the final hurdle. And in their defence, undefeated seasons are bloody hard! There’s a reason the 2002 Crusaders stand alone with this feat.
But, there’s certainly a strong train of thought that losing this weekend just gone is a lot better for the Reds than losing in ten days’ time. Losing one before you win one certainly didn’t hurt the Brumbies last season.
Which leaves the Rebels.
In many ways, finishing the season with a comfortable win that still isn’t enough to make the finals is illustrative of their season. So to, is winning one of their last four games, the three loses coming against the now-confirmed finalists for 2021.
That all said, I don’t think Dave Wessels should be in the crosshairs like he is, and that he made some pretty reasonable points when the inevitable questions came up after the Waratahs win.
Melbourne Rebels head coach Dave Wessels. (Photo by Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)
Even if you cast aside the obvious coaching gripes about availability of training facilities and missing personnel and all the experience they bring, three of the Rebels’ five losses were by two points, three points, and one point – and all were from late kicks at goal.
If Matt To’omua doesn’t miss that kick in Brisbane, or if Ryan Lonergan’s kick in Canberra falls a metre short like it was going to for all but the last five metres of flight, or if Miotti misses the conversion in Melbourne like he did with a penalty only seven minutes earlier, then it certainly is a different story.
The ‘dead coach walking’ narrative also doesn’t exist.
Even if only two of those kicks fall differently, the Rebels play this weekend.
There are criticisms to be made of the way the Rebels attacked in games – they scored six of their fourteen tries in their last two games – and much of it will be valid. And there is certainly an argument that after making the Qualifying Final in 2020, a failure to repeat that in 2021 can only represent a failure. The Rebels themselves would almost certainly concede this.
The Force won’t need to concede this though, because they’ve become the feel-good story of the rugby year over the last month and thoroughly deserved their berth in the qualifier this weekend.
There’s no doubt the Rebels had plenty of determination over the last few rounds to make the finals, but they just couldn’t convert that determination into momentum.
The Force could, and that’s why they’re still alive this week.