Opinion
It was a great end to the carnival last week with both specials getting up at nice prices, allowing gelato after dinner rather than a chocolate milk.
We head west for the standalone Hawkesbury meeting this Saturday. It looks like a nice meeting and it’s always a big day there.
Saturday also features the return of Louise Day to Saturday metro riding, after the load of Group racing over the Championships limited her opportunities. My stats showed she was my favourite (most profitable) jockey in 2020, sorry Jay Ford. Look out.
2020-21 season (since 1 August)
Outlay: 465 units
Return: 588.6 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – no bet
There is no bet in Race 1 with lightly-raced two-year-olds.
Race 2 – 6 Luvoir (one bet)
Luvoir was solid winning first-up at the track. He’s in career-best form, winning three of his last five. He drops weight into this, has drawn well and will likely sit on the speed or get the gun run just behind them. The Grinder and Steely rated next best. The Grinder came over from NZ and won his first start here with Team Waller. He might be pretty good. Steely should get a nice run as well and won carrying weight last start.
Race 3 – 12 Charlton Park (one unit)
I am having a rare bet in the Highway this week. Charlton Park had been getting back in her runs recently but led and won well last time. Louise Day gives her two kilos off and I hope she goes forward from the gate and keeps going.
Race 4 – 11 Mr Gee (two units)
Mr Gee comes right down in weight for the distance race here. The extra trip suits as well after he failed fresh over a shorter distance. He’s trialled since, puts blinkers on first time and John O’Shea is flying. They are all signs that he’s up for this. I had Savoury as a threat and Amoretti as a watch going from 1200 to 1800. Be wary of local trainers popping one in for their big meeting. Garry White brings Brown Thomas in after a four-length win at Orange. This is a step up but he’ll be primed.
Race 5 – 12 Air to Air (one unit)
I am not sure if Air to Air, or Athiri for that matter, run in this or later in the day. Both look suited here, but Athiri at 1300 metres fresh with bigger plans up north on the agenda looks a risk at the price. Air to Air has rocketed home in her first two runs off a break, including a 33.5 last 600 last start that was the best of the day. She’s drawn better, and gets a bit of extra distance to wind up. At the price it’s a good bet if she starts.
Race 6 – 11 Embracer (one unit)
Embracer tops the ratings in the dash over 1100 metres. He’s a flyer at the trip, loves the firm track and is right down in weight from his high handicap runs. He’s a winner with five from 13 starts. Inanup looked a threat. He’s been backed from 20/1 into half that. He has a great overall record as well plus ticks fresh, at 1100 and on good tracks.
Race 7 – 6 Exoboom (one unit)
I’m keen to go around the favourite Ellsberg. He’s a good one but is up in weight here for the first time in a while. It can stop a train. In saying that, he was impressive. I’ll take slightly better odds with Exoboom, who steps up in class but has been monstering them in the lower grades, winning by big margins. He can take the step up here sitting just off the speed.
Race 8 – 7 Royal Celebration (two units)
I am sticking with Sammy Clipperton for a race-to-race double. He’s another of my faves now being back from Hong Kong. He was great last week behind Rocha Clock and Nudge and gets in nicely weight-wise on the back-up. It is not a super price but he’s better than this lot.
Race 9 – 9 Ocean Emperor (one unit)
Ocean Emperor has been lugging big weights over shorter trips recently. He comes into this as a slight risk at 1300 metres, but is in good form and in nicely with 56 kilos. Air to Air is well in this market if he chooses to run here. I have him marked as running earlier so have left him out.
Good luck and good punting. Any tips around the place let me know, particularly if it involves Kempsey (God’s country).
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