Opinion
There was another very small profit last week. This week the roadshow continues and we head up the coast to Gosford.
The rain has come and the track is likely to be heavy or the back end of slow. It’s a tricky little track with short straight. I’ll be watching early to see if there’s a leader bias. I’ll update any tips in the comments.
Note that I’ve finally updated the stats to be from the start of this year rather than August, if I knew it would be this good I would have done it earlier!
Dixie’s 2021 tally
Outlay: 180 units
Return: 332.8 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – no bet
There is no bet in Race 1 with lightly-raced two-year-olds.
Race 2 – 5 Rammstein (one unit)
I am starting the day with Rammstein. He was good fresh at midweek level, is the probable leader here from the inside unless Quiet Riot takes him on and is weighted well. I had Quiet Riot rated at the same level but being by Snitzel, who breeds mud runners, gave Rammstein the nod. Jay Ford is a tick too. I Am Power is interesting fresh from a long spell racing in Hong Kong, big watch.
Race 3 – 11 Jahbath (one unit)
I’ll have a go at the Highway this week. I saw somewhere that Jahbath was 20/1-plus earlier this week and was thinking of taking out loans. I can’t find that price anywhere. He’s in at around $5 at the moment and he might take beating. He thrashed them at Tamworth on heavy last time, drops weight here and is drawn to get the gun run for Josh Parr. Yes from me.
Race 4 – 5 Nyami (one unit)
Nyami steps up to the mile after a wide run first up in a sprint. This is more his distance range and his best stuff has been on slow. Blesk rates highly but is short in the market. Beware Prince of Arragon. He won well last time for a new trainer but has previously been a blank with any moisture in the track.
Race 5 – 5 So Wicked (two units)
I have So Wicked leading and winning this. The rise in distance looks a good move. She runs okay in the wet and will lead with a drop in weight. I had Our Bambino just behind her ratings-wise, but with the track condition his chances are hurt. Selica was my next best.
Race 6 – 2 Easy Eddie (two units)
Surely! Surely? Easy Eddie hasn’t won in over two years but is in really well here. He meets Signore Fox three kilos better for a two-length defeat and was good at Randwick in quick time. He’s best suited with the wet track as well. This is his chance. I am most wary of Enchanted Heart, who was found to be lame when she failed last time but loves the mud and is up to this level at her best.
Race 7 – 15 Aliferous (one unit)
Another bridesmaid rating on top in the Gold Cup, like Eddie, Aliferous hasn’t saluted in two-plus years, but has always been thereabouts at a good level. Significantly she gets the better of the weights from recent clashes with Polly Grey, and she goes okay with the give out of the track. Keep an eye on Young Rascal. Fourteen months ago he gave five kilos to Mugatoo and beat him in his first Australian start. Polly Grey is an obvious chance and Wu Gok goes into quaddies and everything else with the rain. This horse loves it.
Race 8 – 7 Wheelhouse (one unit)
Fun fact in this race: we have two full sisters running in this one, with All Saints Eve and All Hallows both taking part. We don’t see that too often. Good luck to the race caller. There is half a million bucks on the line and I couldn’t find a standout. I ended up with Wheelhouse, who I have as the one going places. He’s been going against the best in the Doncaster and before that the three-year-old classics. Two lengths off Mo’unga reads well for this. He’s fine in the going. Nudge rates well again but prefers dry and needs luck from well back. Maybe Arapaho having his second start down under?
Race 9 – 5 Exotic Ruby (one unit)
I am happy to finish with Exotic Ruby first up. She went as high as Group 2 level last prep and comes right back down in class to start this time in. She’s trialled well and while being a blank on wet surfaces, this horse is another Snitzel so I am hoping she’ll handle it. April Rain is one to watch. At the price I’m happy to leave her lugging 60 kilos.
Good luck everyone. Stay safe and mask up where needed over the next few days. Here’s hoping we fill the boots again as we move Saturday racing around the state post-carnival.
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