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Opinion
It’s not even Round 10 yet but already we are down to only five contenders, and of those there are two clear frontrunners: the Storm and the Panthers.
With 15 home-and-away games yet to be played, you can put a line through 11 teams.
All the teams that aren’t the Panthers, Storm, Eels, Rabbitohs and Roosters have only a Cinderella chance of winning the 2021 NRL premiership.
And Cinderella stories can happen. The 2005 Wests Tigers are the ultimate statistical outliers. They ticked almost none of the required boxes.
They hadn’t played finals the previous season.
They hadn’t played in a preliminary or grand final in the previous five seasons.
They weren’t in the top eight by the end of Round 10.
The only statistical box they did tick was that they managed – on points differential – to finish the home-and-away season in fourth place.
As we know, no side in the NRL era has ever won the premiership from outside the top four. In fact only the sixth-placed Bulldogs in 1995 have ever achieved that feat.
The Wests Tigers had to win 15 of their 20 remaining matches to lift that trophy. This season the five sides on eight points now require 11 wins from their final 15 games to get to the 32-point haul the Wests Tigers achieved in 2005.
So don’t completely give up hope, but taking holidays in late September and early October shouldn’t be a problem.
I’m writing off every team from the Dragons down.
Taking out those 11 teams is also supported by a very compelling set of statistics, being the results of every NRL premier since 1998 after Round 9.
| Season | Premier | Record after Round 9 | Ladder position after Round 9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Storm | 7-2 | 3rd |
| 2019 | Roosters | 8-1 | 1st |
| 2018 | Roosters (*Dragons 8-1) | 5-4 | 6th |
| 2017 | Storm | 8-1 | 1st |
| 2016 | Sharks | 7-2 | 4th |
| 2015 | Cowboys | 6-3 | 4th |
| 2014 | Rabbitohs (*Bulldogs 7-2) | 5-4 | 5th |
| 2013 | Roosters (*Rabbitohs 8-1) | 7-2 | 2nd |
| 2012 | Storm | 9-0 | 1st |
| 2011 | Sea Eagles (*Dragons 8-1) | 6-3 | 4th |
| 2010 | Dragons | 7-2 | 1st |
| 2009 | Storm (*Bulldogs 7-2) | 5-4 | 6th |
| 2008 | Sea Eagles (*Storm 7-2) | 6-3 | 4th |
| 2007 | Storm | 8-1 | 2nd |
| 2006 | Broncos (*Storm 7-2) | 5-4 | 5th |
| 2005 | Wests Tigers (*Broncos 7-2) | 4-5 | 13th |
| 2004 | Bulldogs (*Roosters 8-1) | 7-2 | 3rd |
| 2003 | Panthers (*Raiders 8-1) | 6-3 | 7th |
| 2002 | Roosters (*Broncos 8-1-0) | 5-4 | 6th |
| 2001 | Knights | 6-1-2 | 1st |
| 2000 | Broncos | 7-1-1 | 1st |
| 1999 | Storm (*Sharks 8-1) | 6-3 | 4th |
| 1998 | Broncos | 7-2 | 1st |
* An asterisk denotes a side with a better record than the eventual premiers after nine rounds.
What this table shows is that 17 out of 23 premiers had at least six wins by the end of Round 9. All but one of the 23 premiers had a positive win rate, 21 were in the top six and 16 were already in the top four.
The great Wests Tigers outlier constitutes just four per cent of the NRL premiers. That is one in 25.
So basically only the Panthers, Storm, Eels, Roosters and Rabbitohs have a realistic chance now.
Three of those sides are in more tenuous positions.
I still think that the Rabbitohs are a chance. While the stat of 50 points conceded is a powerful one, if you take any side’s top three players out of any game, they are likely to struggle. I’d argue that if Cam Murray, Adam Reynolds and Latrell Mitchell play against the Storm, there is no way the Cardinal and Myrtle concede anywhere near 50 points. However, I don’t think the Redfern side is quite of the same calibre as the two standout contenders.
Then there are the Eels. Yes, sure, this side looks really good. I think they are the best Parramatta side we’ve seen since 2005. However, they haven’t played in either a preliminary or grand final in the last five years, and those two statistical categories are essential for premiership glory when you are up against other teams who have done both, which is all of the other four contenders.
Last week I put the kiss of death on the Roosters after they suffered a hard loss to the Eels and a few more injuries they could just not afford. While their ladder position is good and I believe they will make the finals, I can’t see how they’ll seriously challenge.
So either the Penrith Panthers or the Melbourne Storm will be the 2021 premiers.
Both have brilliant win rates and are in the top four. Both have played in preliminary and grand finals recently. While the stats show that eight times the competition leaders after Round 9 have fallen over and not even made the decider, does anyone really get that vibe about the Storm and the Panthers? I don’t think so.
In the 23 years of the NRL only two sides have been undefeated after nine rounds. The first was the 2012 Melbourne Storm, who subsequently went on to win the premiership. The second is the 2021 Penrith Panthers.
Further, the Sydney Roosters were the first back-to-back premiers in 26 seasons. That weighs almost as heavily as the 50-points-conceded statistic and the top-four statistic.
So I’ll go one step further and say that the Panthers will be the 2021 premiers.