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Opinion
Albert Einstein once said: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”.
Well, Australian rugby just might be insane. After the one-sided affairs of the first week of Super Rugby Trans-Tasman the Australian teams did not make any major tactical changes and the results were pretty dire. Now we are realistically staring down the barrel of 25 losses and no wins for the competition.
The poor performances against our New Zealander friends are very depressing. But has this been a gradual decline? The answer is no, it hasn’t.
This poor showing realistically started in 2016. The decline has been rapid and brutal. I looked up the results of our Super Rugby teams versus NZ opposition (the earliest full figures I could get were from 2009 onwards). I was pretty shocked how far we have fallen.
2009-2015
Won 63 (42.8 per cent)
Drawn two (1.4 per cent)
Lost 82 (55.8 per cent)
The Australian Super Rugby teams won almost 43 per cent of their 147 games against NZ opposition. Each year was pretty even, with 2013 being the best (12 wins, ten losses) and 2011 being the second best (11 wins, one draw, 11 losses).
But if you look from 2016 to today, it is a very different story.
2016-now
Won ten (9.7 per cent)
Drawn one (1.0 per cent)
Lost 92 (89.3 per cent)
That is shocking. In 2016 we only won two of 25 matches then backed it up with zero from 22. Things haven’t improved much since then either.
We went from winning 55 per cent versus the New Zealanders in 2013 to 48 per cent in 2014, 29 per cent in 2015, seven per cent in 2016, then zero per cent in 2017. In terms of professional sport, it is an unbelievably quick decline.
The only thing that can cause a decline this fast and severe is a change in tactics. Two things stand out to me as the major difference in our Australian rugby plays now to how we did it then: tactical kicking and the defensive ruck.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Australian teams have decided to forgo any type of a tactical kicking game. Our kicks are mainly reserved for clearing our 22 or a low percentage play like chip and regather if we run out of options. We never try and find grass in the corner of the opposition 22, which has been and will always be a winning tactic.
We rarely contest rucks and try and pilfer the ball. At best we leave this solely to our opensides. There are many forwards going around in the Super Rugby teams and Wallabies who have never won or pilfer or even hardly attempted one.
Last week I did an article showing the difference in these two areas between the Australian and NZ teams from Round 1 Super Rugby Trans-Tasman.
Total forced turnovers at the breakdown in 2021
NZ 26
Australia 13
Total kicks into opposition 22 from general play in 2021
NZ 29
Australia ten
Just to show you how different our style of rugby is to how we used to play, I watched replays of the 2011 Reds team play the Blues in the semis and the Crusaders in the final.
The Reds won the semi comfortably 30-13 and then got home in a tight encounter 18-13 in the final. Here is the same breakdown from those matches.
Total forced turnovers at the breakdown in 2011
Reds 15
Blues and Crusaders ten
Total kicks into opposition 22 from general play in 2011
Reds 14
Blues and Crusaders 11
It is a massive difference in styles of play between the Reds of 2011 and the Australian teams now. The Reds made more turnovers at the breakdown and kicked tactically more often to the 22 than their NZ rivals.
(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)
Here is how the 2011 Reds (stats from those two games) compare to the Australian teams from Super Rugby Trans-Tasman Round 1 in those two areas.
Average forced turnovers at the breakdown
2021: Australian teams 2.6 per game
2011: Reds 7.5 per game
Kicks into opposition 22 from general play
2021: Australian teams two per game
2011: Reds seven per game
The 2011 Reds forced about three times as many turnovers and kicked to the opposition 22 from general play about three times as much. That is a massive tactical difference. And remember the 2010-2013 Ewen McKenzie-coached Reds won 14 and only lost five versus NZ opposition.
Now before you start talking about changes in rules around the ruck and the evolution of rugby leading to less kicking, have a look at the NZ comparison.
Average forced turnovers at the breakdown
2021: NZ teams 5.2 per game
2011: Blues and Crusaders 5.0 per game
Kicks into opposition 22 from general play
2021: NZ teams 5.8 per game
2011: Blues and Crusaders 5.5 per game
Almost exactly the same. The New Zealanders’ style has hardly changed at all.
To sum up, Australian rugby sides have made tactical changes that have resulted in our poor showings over the recent past. The positive is that we can change quickly and go back to the way we used to play.
Remember we had a 43 per cent win rate against NZ opposition from 2009 to 2015. Imagine how good the Trans-Tasman comp would be if we were that competitive again.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.