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2021 French Open: Draw breakdown, analysis and predictions

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Roar Guru
28th May, 2021
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The men’s and women’s singles draws for the 2021 French Open are now known, and as you can always expect at this time of year, there will be some cracking matches to watch over the next fortnight.

I start on the men’s side of things, where the sport’s three most celebrated players – Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, with close to 60 majors between them – headline a packed top half of the draw.

It is the first time since the so-called ‘Big Three’ are all on the same half of the draw at a grand slam tournament since the 2005 Australian Open.

Top seed Djokovic, who will attempt to complete a double career grand slam, will start his bid for a second French Open title against the appropriately-named Tennys Sandgren. The first seed he could face is French 29th seed Ugo Humbert in the third round.

The 13th seed David Goffin looms as his likely fourth round opponent, but so too could Australian 21st seed Alex de Minaur, who is up against Italian Stefano Travaglia in the first round.

Goffin could also face former Australian Open finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the second round, provided the local favourite defeats Yoshihito Nishioka in his first match.

Federer, who is seeded eighth, is the biggest threat to Djokovic in the top quarter of the draw but could face a potentially tricky second round clash against Marin Cilic, whom he defeated for his two most recent grand slam titles (Wimbledon 2017 and the 2018 Australian Open).

The first seed the Swiss maestro could face is American Taylor Fritz, who took Djokovic to five sets at the Australian Open earlier this year, in the third round, while former US Open semi-finalist Matteo Berrettini, who is seeded ninth, could loom in the final 16.

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Rafael Nadal, who is seeking a record-extending 14th French Open title and a record-breaking 21st major title overall, starts his campaign against 2017 junior champion Alexei Popyrin in what’s been dubbed the master versus apprentice showdown.

Rafael Nadal

(Photo by TPN/Getty Images)

Following that, the Spaniard could then face a few French veterans on the way to the quarters, with Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils his projected second and fourth round opponents, respectively.

Australian journeyman John Millman is also in this part of the draw. He is up against little-known Italian Gianluca Mager in his opening match. Should he get to the third round, Monfils, a semi-finalist in 2008, is likely to await.

The second-highest ranked player in the second quarter of the draw is Russian seventh seed Andrey Rublev, who faces Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff in the opening round.

Also in this part of the draw is tenth seed Diego Schwartzman, a semi-finalist last year, and another Russian, Aslan Karatsev, who is seeded at a major for the first time at 24th after reaching the final four at the Australian Open on his major debut back in February.

Karatsev and Schwartzman are drawn to face each other in Round 3, but Spanish veteran Fernando Verdasco could spoil that match-up as he is drawn to face the former in Round 2.

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Whichever of these players reaches the quarter-finals is then likely to face Nadal, who has only once ever lost a major quarter-final in Europe (the 2015 French Open quarter-final against Novak Djokovic).

Moving down the draw now, where there should be no excuses for German sixth seed Alexander Zverev, who will face qualifiers in his opening two matches before possibly facing Brit Dan Evans and Spaniard Roberto Bautista-Agut in the third and fourth rounds respectively.

Bautista-Agut is also up against a qualifier in the opening round. His projected third round opponent is Russia’s Karen Khachanov, while former US Open finalist Kei Nishikori is also in this part of the draw.

Austrian fourth seed Dominic Thiem is the highest-ranked player in this quarter of the draw. He faces a potentially tricky first-up clash against Pablo Andujar, who recently upset Roger Federer at the Geneva Open in Switzerland last week.

Dominic Thiem

(Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

He could also face Italian 27th seed Fabio Fognini in the third round, and then one of rising stars Casper Ruud (seeded 15th) or Hubert Hurkacz (19th) in the fourth round. Those two players are also projected to face each other in the final 32.

In section seven, fifth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas is up against veteran Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, after which he could face Sebastian Korda (the son of 1998 Australian Open champion Petr Korda) and American talisman John Isner in the second and third rounds respectively.

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The Greek star is then projected to face 12th seed Pablo Carreno Busta in the fourth round, but could also face Canadian 17th seed Milos Raonic, who is also in this part of the draw and could face the Spaniard in the third round.

Down at the bottom of the draw, Russian second seed Daniil Medvedev will get his chance to break his Roland Garros duck when he tackles Alexander Bublik in the first round.

He should not be threatened until the fourth round, where Grigor Dimitrov could await. The Bulgarian, who has not yet reached the quarter-finals in Paris but did reach the last 16 last year, also has a soft draw until his possible clash with Medvedev.

Barring any major upsets, the men’s quarter-finals onwards are projected to unfold as follows.

Quarter-finals
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs [8] Roger Federer (SUI)
[3] Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs [7] Andrey Rublev (RUS)
[6] Alexander Zverev (GER) vs [4] Dominic Thiem (AUT)
[5] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) vs [2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS)

Semi-finals
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs [3] Rafael Nadal (ESP)
[4] Dominic Thiem (AUT) vs [2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS)

Predicted championship outcome
[3] Rafael Nadal (ESP) defeats [4] Dominic Thiem (AUT)

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I now turn my focus to the women’s side of the draw, where as is convention, the top two seeds, Ashleigh Barty and Naomi Osaka, are on opposite sides of the draw and therefore cannot face each other until the championship match.

Fourth seed Sofia Kenin and third seed Aryna Sabalenka have been assigned to those respective halves of the draw, meaning they too cannot face each other until the final, should they get that far.

Barty, who is back at Roland Garros for the first time since saluting in 2019, has an easy first few rounds to start off but then faces a potential fourth round roadblock in the form of either 24th seed Coco Gauff or Australian Open finalist Jennifer Brady.

The Queenslander is up against Bernarda Pera in her opening match and the first seed she could face is 25th-seeded Tunisian Ons Jabeur. Another Aussie, Astra Sharma, is also in this part of the draw and is up against a qualifier in her opening match.

Ash Barty looks on.

(Photo by Oscar J. Barroso / Europa Press Sports via Getty Images)

Gauff, meantime, starts off against a qualifier while Brady faces a tricky clash against Latvia’s Annastasija Sevastova, who reached the fourth round in 2019 and has had a knack of causing major upsets at the grand slams in recent years.

Also in a packed top quarter of the draw is fifth seed Elina Svitolina, as well as ninth seed Karolina Pliskova and her twin sister Kristyna, former US Open champion Sloane Stephens, the ageless Venus Williams and Australian Open semi-finalist Karolina Muchova.

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Pliskova, who is up against Donna Vekic in her first match, could face Stephens in the second round followed by a rematch against Muchova a round later, after the younger of the two Czechs knocked her out of the Australian Open in a topsy-turvy match earlier this year.

Venus Williams, meantime, is up against Russia’s Ekaterina Alexandrova in the first round, after which she could face Kristyna Pliskova in the second round, and then Svitolina in the third.

Whichever of these players reaches the quarter-finals is then likely to face Barty, who recently had to forfeit her quarter-final match against Coco Gauff at the Italian Open due to an arm injury.

In the second quarter, former Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin starts off with a mouth-watering clash against Jelena Ostapenko, a former champion here in 2017 but whose poor form since then means she is unseeded.

Looming in the third round is another seeded American Jessica Pegula, while any of Greece’s Maria Sakkari (seeded 17th) or Belgian Elise Mertens (14th) could await in the final 16.

The other big name to watch out for in this quarter of the draw is the reigning champion Iga Swiatek, who is seeded eighth and is considered the favourite to successfully defend the title she only won seven and a half months ago.

Swiatek, who turns 20 on Monday, faces Kaja Juvan in her opening match, with a possible fourth round clash looming against another former champion, Spanish 12th seed Garbine Muguruza, if she can get that far.

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Muguruza will also enjoy a relatively easy opening three matches, starting off against Marta Kostyuk. Her projected third round opponent is 22nd seed Petra Martic.

Moving down the draw now, and seventh seed Serena Williams will begin her chase for a record-equalling 24th major singles title with a clash against Irina-Camelia Begu, ahead of a potential third round blockbuster against 26th-seeded German Angelique Kerber.

Serena Williams

(Photo by Fred Lee/Getty Images)

The 33-year-old Kerber is chasing a career grand slam but must overturn a recent dismal record at Roland Garros to do so. She will get the opportunity to do that when she faces a qualifier in the first round, after which she could face Danielle Collins in the second round.

Whichever of Williams or Kerber reaches the last 16 is likely to meet seventh seed Petra Kvitova there. The Czech, nearly a decade removed from the first of her two Wimbledon titles in 2011, also faces a qualifier in the first round.

The sixth section of the draw sees a blockbuster first round clash between two former grand slam champions in Victoria Azarenka (seeded 13th) and Svetlana Kuznetsova, 13 years after they first met at Roland Garros (with the Russian winning on that occasion).

Whoever wins that match could then face, in this order, rising Spanish star Paula Badosa in the second round, followed by American 23rd seed Madison Keys in the third and then third seed Aryna Sabalenka in the last 16.

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Should Azarenka get that far, she could face her compatriot at a major for the third time, after the pair split meetings at the past two US Opens (with Sabalenka coming from a set down to win in 2019 and then Azarenka getting her revenge 12 months later).

Further down the draw, sixth seed Bianca Andreescu opens against Tamara Pidansek and is then projected to face either Russian 29th seed Veronika Kudermetova or American youngster Amanda Anisimova, both of whom face each other in the opening round, in the third round.

The 2019 US Open champion is then projected to face tenth seed Belinda Bencic in the last 16, in what would be a rematch of their semi-final at Flushing Meadows from two years ago.

Bencic has copped a tough first-up clash against Nadia Podoroska, who not only reached the semi-finals last year but who also recently upset Serena Williams, who was playing the 1000th match of her career, at the Italian Open earlier this month.

Martina Trevisan, the Italian who reached the quarter-finals last year, is also in this part of the draw, as is Australian-born Brit Johanna Konta and 2009 quarter-finalist Sorana Cirstea, both of whom will face each other in the opening round.

Down at the bottom of the draw, second seed Naomi Osaka will have the chance to improve her dismal record at Roland Garros as she is not expected to be threatened until the third round where she could face American 27th seed Alison Riske.

Naomi Osaka plays a backhand

(Photo by Fred Lee/Getty Images)

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The reigning Australian Open champion is then projected to face either 16th seed Kiki Bertens or 2019 runner-up Marketa Vondrousova, who faces Estonian Kaia Kanepi in her first match, in the fourth round.

Another first round match to watch out for in this section of the draw is that between German veteran Laura Siegemund and French favourite Caroline Garcia.

Barring any major upsets, the men’s quarter-finals onwards are projected to unfold as follows.

Quarter-finals
[1] Ashleigh Barty (AUS) vs [5] Elina Svitolina (UKR)
[4] Sofia Kenin (USA) vs [8] Iga Swiatek (POL)
[7] Serena Williams (USA) vs [3] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR)
[6] Bianca Andreescu (CAN) vs [2] Naomi Osaka (JPN)

Semi-finals
[1] Ashleigh Barty (AUS) vs [8] Iga Swiatek (POL)
[7] Serena Williams (USA) vs [2] Naomi Osaka (JPN)

Predicted championship outcome
[2] Naomi Osaka (JPN) defeats [8] Iga Swiatek (POL)

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