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Rosehill Gardens Saturday: Preview and tips

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Roar Rookie
3rd June, 2021
18

Sydney racing heads back to Rosehill this Saturday.

The track is currently rated a Good 4. There are showers forecast for Thursday so it may downgrade to a soft, depending how much rain hits.

The rail is out six metres from the 1350 m to the winning post, and four metres the remainder.

Race 1: 1400 m, 2yo Handicap
The field for the first is getting weaker by the hour – there has already been one key scratching in Three Wise Men. Volcanic Rock is expected to become the second one to come out with connections expressing their preference to head to Queensland instead.

Cape Breton should now be able to cross and find the rail, unless either of the two debutants drawn inside show early speed. His win first-up at Canterbury was pretty good. The strength of that race is a bit unknown, but without any other strong form lines in the race I’m happy to put him on top with Tommy Berry on board.

Sinba was good when winning on debut. He loomed but looked to peak a bit over the final 100 metres second up, so the drop back in trip to 1400 m here looks a good move. He is back to his own age group again as well, which should help.

Bet: Cape Breton win.

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Race 2: 1100 m, Class 3
Ice In Vancouver draws plenty of attention in the highway. He has been dominant in his three wins to date. His only other run was in the Kosciuszko, where he finished last.

It is important to note that he suffered cardiac arrhythmia during that event, so you can put a pen through that run. The weight is no concern, given he got the job done easily with an extra 1.5 kg last start. Barrier 15 would have to be the main concern – if Clark can get him into a position from there, he should be too good for them. If he gets caught wide, he may still be.

Patino Ruby comes back to 1100 m, which looks very suitable after tiring late first-up over 1200 m. The map is a bit awkward for her too, but there will be at least six scratchings for this event so the wide gate shouldn’t be as much of an issue as it looks at first.

Hellenism ran very well after a year off first up in F and M BM78 grade. On the basis of that run, she has to be considered for this.

Bet: Ice In Vancouver win (best bet).

Race 3: 1800 m, BM72
Caesars Palace should be in the first half of the field with a very soft run from the favourable draw. His two wins leading into this have looked good. The horse that he beat well last start was ahead of Rebel Rama previously, who since won a nice Saturday race that ties in pretty well to a number of these. At 16/1 currently, he looks a good each-way bet.

Wicklow is an import for Chris Waller. He ran well to win first-up at Newcastle. The second-placed horse from that race won at its subsequent start to frank that form. The rise in distance shouldn’t be an issue and he has drawn nicely in Barrier 5 for Brenton Avdulla.

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Alleboom ridden by Craig Williams wins the Schweppervescence Plate

(Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

Le Vizir and Vigorous flow also look among the chances.

Bet: Caesars Palace each way.

Race 4: 1400 m, BM72
Mensa Missile was brave last start after sitting on a very hot speed that saw the other on pace runners fade out completely. Before that he won by over four lengths albeit in weaker grade. The slight drop back to 1400 m looks ideal, and the track condition shouldn’t matter either way. He does have to carry 60 kg, but gets a very favourable draw (3) to reduce the work in transit.

Tycoonist has been good in his first two starts this preparation and looks ready to peak now. If the rain doesn’t come and the track stays at a Good 4 or better, then I will also be having something on him for the win.

Resilient Star is an attractive price at the double figure odds given he handled Gravina easily three starts back. Gravina of course went on to win ever so impressively last Saturday. Forgive the wide run two starts back, before he then went on to win again.

The distance rise to 1400 m looks perfect for Key, who can run well at a big price.

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Bet: Mensa Missile win, if a Good 4 or better hedge with Tycoonist win as well.

Race 5: 1200 m, BM78
Rammstein looks the one here off the strength of that last run. Particularly with the rail out he could really kick clear and prove hard to beat. The issue is, however, that he has been putting in some very poor runs as well. It could be argued that the Soft 7 track conditions have been the culprit for these poor performances. If the rain comes on Thursday, I will sit this race out.

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Royal Banquet, Snowzone and Shadow Crush look among the many other chances.

Bet: Rammstein win (only if the track is a Soft 5 or firmer).

Race 6: 1500 m, BM78
Zing looks to have come back in really good order based on a very nice first-up performance where she came from last to run third against some decent enough horses. Last preparation she finished a narrow second to Sky Lab – who was Group 1 placed two starts later – so she looks to have a bit of class about her.

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The slight distance rise now looks perfect and she maps to sit fairly handy without much effort from Barrier 3. She may even box seat depending what some of the horses drawn out elect to do.

Love Tap was good enough in Queensland first up after the injury break. He looked to peak a bit there, understandably. I am expecting him to return to his front running roll now second up over a bit further, which is likely to produce a sharp improvement from the previous run. He is a deserved favourite and will take plenty of beating.

Bet: Zing win and place 25 per cent/75 per cent.

Race 7: 2400 m, Listed
Parry Sound keeps running well without winning. The form around Polly Grey looks the right one relative to his rivals for this race, and the rise to 2400 m now looks favourable. There were genuine excuses for his defeat two starts back after making a mid-race move and going down narrowly. He can run well on all surfaces and is likely to give followers a big sight from the favourable draw.

Excelleration ridden by Billy Egan wins

(Brett Holburt/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

Inverloch continues to run well at big odds this preparation and goes around at double figures again here. Tommy Berry has some work to do from Barrier 14 but there aren’t too many Jockeys better trusted with that sort of task. His Wagga Gold Cup win has stacked up very well with both Spirit Ridge and Yonkers winning nice races at their subsequent starts.

Kaapfever was pretty good last run at a less than ideal distance, first start back from a break. Now up to 2400 m looks right and although he may need this one as well, I expect him to run a cheeky race at the big odds. He does need two scratchings to gain a start.

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Bet: Parry Sound win (next-best).

Race 8: 1800 m, BM94
Mr Dependable’s last start flop can be completely forgiven. He was caught three-wide there without cover. Before that he won well twice when leading start to finish. He beat some handy horses in those wins including Lina’s Hero, Stockman and Parry Sound – who have all ran well on multiple occasions since. He maps nicely to return to his favourite role as a leader from Barrier 4. If Monsieur Sisu – who is an emergency – is among the scratchings, then he may even get to lead on his own terms, which would make him a nice bet at the double figure odds currently on offer.

Welsh Legend gets a tricky gate but if James Innes Jnr can manage to find a spot without too much work then she is a big player in this race as well.

Flambeur is hard to take off the back of his two trial runs leading into this, but is an interesting watch. He placed in Listed company in France at the back end of last year before coming to Australia. This is his first assignment here.

Bet: Mr Dependable win (best value).

Race 9: 1200 m, BM78
I’m going with the Denise’s Joy Stakes form line here.

Expat stuck on really well there after being taken on early. She had to let go of the lead after a couple out wide kept pressing on. On paper, it looks a much better map for her this time in. Unless there are any surprises it looks like she will get to the lead comfortably from Barrier 6, and should be able to hold her position. I am predicting that will leave her with a better finish than last time, making her a good bet to finish the card.

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Majestic Shot is out of the same lead-up race as Expat. She also has nice form prior, having finished just over a length behind two handy horses in Bravado and Belluci Babe. She beat Expat narrowly last start and actually gets a 2.5 kg weight swing in favour here. However, the awkward draw is the reason I have Majestic shot as my second elect.

Sahra was three-wide without cover last start and loomed to win before understandably peaking. Adkins should be able to find cover from Barrier 8, which would see an improved result this time.

Bet: Expat win.

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