Opinion
Off to Rosehill this Saturday, and as of Friday night the rain has arrived, we’re looking at a heavy surface for a competitive card of winter racing.
Dixie’s 2021 tally
Outlay: 249 units
Return: 356.50 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 2: 6 Power Me Up (two units)
$23 was offered about Power Me Up earlier this week, that’s well and truly done with him into about 7s at time of writing. He looks the only speed horse and gets weight relief with Schiller’s claim, think it’s a great bit of placement to bring him to town for this. Wicklow is odds-on for a reason, he’s undefeated since arriving from the UK and is class, but he’ll have to get past a horse with no weight on a potentially sloppy track.
Race 4: 9 Vigorous Flow (one unit)
I think it’s worth forgiving Vigorous Flow’s flop last time, he drew wide and used some petrol to sit outside the leader. This Saturday he jumps from Gate 3 and should sit behind the leader Monsieur Sisu. From a similar spot two starts back, the Flow was too good for them in midweeks carrying weight. Worth a bet at 20/1-plus.
Kutayha is rated next-best for me but has no wet form, former New Zealand runner No Compromise is a risk as favourite up in weight and a risk in the conditions.
Race 5: 11 Miss Jay Fox (one unit)
There are a few ticks for Foxy at double-figure odds, she won well in the wet last start, is right down in weight and has a great barrier. She’ll probably lead and has Tim Clark riding as well, a definite plus.
Fastconi looks a nice horse but hasn’t won on heavy, same story with Escape Artist.
Race 6: 7 Royal Banquet (two units)
I had Royal Banquet a fortnight ago when having his first run in over a year, he missed the cash but was stuck behind a few going backwards in the straight. He’ll be better for that and has a five-length win on heavy, yes please. If Papal Warrior runs here he’s right in it, Count De Rupee is a good show as well.
(Reg Ryan/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Race 7: 12 Approach Discreet (one unit)
Approach Discreet has been all around it this prep as he’s stepped out to this sort of distance, he does go up in class for this but gets a nice weight drop. Stockman looks the big threat and loves the wet, look out.
Race 8: 7 Katalin (two units)
Quite simply, Katalin looks a fair bit too good for these. It’s not really my thing to back a horse in her sort of range (about $2.30?), but her fresh win was great and this looks a similar proposition. Sahra and Miss Einstein are good chances and will appreciate the conditions.
Race 9: 17 Papal Warrior (one unit)
Papal Warrior is an emergency is separate races this Saturday, I’m hoping he ends up here as he rates nicely on top. He doesn’t win often but is fine in wet conditions and goes down nicely in weight. Oscar Zulu otherwise.
Good luck and be safe. I’ll be at the computer, please hit me up with any questions or comments.
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