The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

Opinion

Wimbledon 2021: Draw breakdown, analysis and predictions

Autoplay in... 6 (Cancel)
Up Next No more videos! Playlist is empty -
Replay
Cancel
Next
Roar Guru
25th June, 2021
2

The men’s and women’s singles draws for Wimbledon 2021 have been released, and tennis fans around the world can expect to be treated to some cracking matches as their focus turns to the All England Club for the first time since 2019.

As always, we start on the men’s side of things, where Novak Djokovic will begin his bid for a record-equaling 20th major title with a Centre Court clash against British wildcard Jack Draper, before a potential 2018 final rematch against Kevin Anderson in the second round.

The first seed he is projected to face is 30th-seeded Spaniard Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who arrives at SW19 fresh off a quarter-final berth at Roland Garros where he lost to Alexander Zverev.

Beyond that, 13th seed Gael Monfils could await Djokovic in the fourth round, before a projected quarter-final duel against Russian fifth seed Andrey Rublev.

Rublev starts off against Argentina’s Federico Delbonis, with Italian 26th seed Fabio Fognini and Argentinian ninth seed Diego Schwartzman looming as major obstacles in his path to a quarter-final showdown against Djokovic.

Novak Djokovic with the 2019 Wimbledon trophy.

(Photo by Matthias Hangst/Getty Images)

The second quarter of the draw is headlined by men’s third seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, who is fresh off reaching the French Open final. He faces a potentially tricky first-round clash against former Australian Open quarter-finalist Frances Tiafoe, who has largely struggled since then.

He could also face some more tricky opponents down the path, with Canada’s Vasek Pospisil, a quarter-finalist in 2015, a possible second-round adversary, and Russia’s Karen Khachanov the first seeded player he is projected to face.

Advertisement

Australia’s Alex de Minaur is also in this part of the draw. He starts off against American Sebastian Korda, the son of former Australian Open champion Petr Korda, and should not be threatened until the fourth round where Tsitsipas is likely to await.

The second highest seeded player in this quarter of the draw is Spanish eighth seed Roberto Bautista Agut, who starts off against Australian veteran John Millman and is projected to face 27th-seeded American Reilly Opelka in the third round.

Also in this section of the draw is two-time Wimbledon champion Andy Murray, who has been given a wildcard into the main draw and has drawn 24th-seeded Georgian Nikoloz Basilashvili in the first round.

Should Murray, for whom this would be his first appearance at the All England Club since 2017, reach the third round, then he would most likely face Canadian tenth seed Denis Shapovalov before potentially facing Bautista Agut in the fourth.

generic tennis Wimbledon

(Photo by Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images)

Turning over the page now, where Italian seventh seed Matteo Berrettini starts his bid for a maiden major title against Argentina’s Guido Pella, with American marathon man John Isner looming as the first seeded obstacle he could face in the third round.

A pair of Australians are in this part of the draw – with Alexei Popyrin and Jordan Thompson facing Kei Nishikori and Casper Ruud respectively in the first round. Should both Aussies win their openers, then they could face each other in Round 2.

Advertisement

Ruud is then projected to face Russia’s Aslan Karatsev in the third round, before a possible Manic Monday clash against Berrettini.

Whichever of these players goes on to reach the quarter-finals is then projected to face Alexander Zverev, who has been promoted to fourth seed after the withdrawal of Dominic Thiem, who picked up a wrist injury during a lead-up tournament this week.

The German faces Dutch qualifier Tallon Griekspoor in the first round, and is projected to face American 31st seed Taylor Fritz in the third round.

Australian firebrand Nick Kyrgios, whose world ranking has dropped to 61 due to not playing much tennis over the past 15 months, is also in this part of the draw and he has drawn Frenchman Ugo Humbert in the first round.

The other seed to watch out for in section six is Canadian 16th seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, who recently upset Roger Federer in Halle this month but could face a potentially tricky opponent in French veteran Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the second round.

Roger Federer prepares to serve

(Photo by Clive Mason/Getty Images)

We now turn our focus to the bottom quarter of the draw, where sixth seed Roger Federer will kick off his bid for a record-breaking 21st major title against France’s Adrian Mannarino, with that match scheduled for Tuesday.

Advertisement

He could then face two more Frenchmen – Richard Gasquet (second round) and Lucas Pouille (third round) – before a projected fourth-round clash against Spanish 11th seed Pablo Carreno Busta, who begins against 2017 semi-finalist Sam Querrey.

There are two Australians – Alex Bolt and James Duckworth – in this part of the draw, and the latter could face Carreno Busta in his second-round match should he beat Radu Albot in his first match.

At the bottom of the draw is Russian second seed Daniil Medvedev, who begins against Jan-Lennard Struff and will face a very tricky path if he is to reach the quarter-finals at the All England Club for the first time.

Beyond the first round, Medvedev could face Spanish teen sensation Carlos Alcaraz, who has been granted a wildcard into the main draw, followed by 2017 finalist Marin Cilic in the third round, and then 18th seed Grigor Dimitrov in the last 16.

Barring any major upsets, the men’s quarter-finals onwards are projected to unfold as follows.

Quarter-finals
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs [5] Andrey Rublev (RUS)
[3] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) vs [8] Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP)
[7] Matteo Berrettini (ITA) vs [4] Alexander Zverev (GER)
[6] Roger Federer (SUI) vs [2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS)

Semi-finals
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs [3] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE)
[4] Alexander Zverev (GER) vs [6] Roger Federer (SUI)

Advertisement

Predicted championship outcome
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) defeats [6] Roger Federer (SUI)

We now turn our focus to the women’s side of the draw, where as is convention, the top two seeds, Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka, are on opposite sides of the draw and therefore cannot face each other until the championship match.

Sabalenka was promoted to second seed following the withdrawal of 2019 champion, Simona Halep, who has failed to recover from the calf injury she picked up at the Italian Open last month.

The world number one ranking will go on the line over the next two weeks. For Barty to retain top spot, she must reach the semi-finals, regardless of Sabalenka’s result. If not, the latter can become world number one by winning the title.

Barty will face a very tricky path in the first week, drawing Spaniard Carla Suarez Navarro, who has recently made a comeback to the game after recovering from cancer, in the opening round.

Ash Barty during Wimbledon 2019

(Photo by Shi Tang/Getty Images)

Also looming as potential obstacles are 27th seed Johanna Konta, who last week won her first title since 2017 by becoming the first British woman in 40 years to win the Nottingham tournament, as well as recent French Open champion Barbora Krejcikova.

Advertisement

Krejcikova, who is seeded 14th, will face Clara Tauson in the opening round, and is then projected to face retiring Dutchwoman Kiki Bertens in the third round.

Canadian fifth seed Bianca Andreescu is the second-highest seed in Barty’s quarter of the draw. Like the Australian, the former US Open champion also faces a tough first week with the likes of Jelena Ostapenko and Victoria Azarenka looming as her likely opponents.

Andreescu starts off against Frenchwoman Alize Cornet, after which she could face Australian Ajla Tomljanovic, who is up against a qualifier in her first match. Either Ostapenko or Russian 31st seed Daria Kasatkina could then await in the third round before a marquee last-16 showdown against Azarenka.

Third seed Elina Svitolina headlines the second quarter of the draw, and much like Barty and Andreescu above her will face a tricky first week of the tournament.

The Ukrainian starts off against Belgium’s Alison van Uytvanck, who in 2018 upset the then-reigning champion Garbine Muguruza, and could then face, in this order, Amanda Anisimova, Paula Badosa and French Open finalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

The second-highest seed in the second quarter of the draw is sixth seed Serena Williams, who is gunning for a record-equaling 24th major singles title but could face a rematch against 2018 champion Angelique Kerber, who beat the American to win that year’s title, in the third round.

Young guns Belinda Bencic (seeded ninth) and Coco Gauff (20th) could face each other in the third round, possibly for the right to face either Kerber or Williams in the fourth round.

Advertisement
Serena Williams at Wimbledon

(Clive Mason/Getty Images)

Further down the draw, eighth seed Karolina Pliskova opens with a tough first-round clash against French Open semi-finalist Tamara Zidansek, after which she could face Donna Vekic in the second round.

The former world number one is then projected to face Alison Riske in the third round, and then compatriot Petra Kvitova in the fourth. Kvitova, who won the first of her two Wimbledon titles a decade ago, faces former US Open champion Sloane Stephens in her first match.

The 31-year-old left-hander is then projected to face American 22nd seed Jessica Pegula in the third round.

The highest seed in the third quarter of the draw is Sofia Kenin, who has been promoted as the fourth seed following Simona Halep’s withdrawal. She begins against either a qualifier or a lucky loser, and will then face either of her countrywomen, Madison Brengle or Christina McHale, in the second round.

Kenin could face another of her compatriots in the fourth round, where 23rd seed Madison Keys could await. Also in this part of the draw is 13th-seeded Belgian Elise Mertens, who begins against British wildcard Harriet Dart.

In the bottom quarter of the draw, seventh seed Iga Swiatek begins against Taiwan veteran Hsieh Su-wei, after which she could face 2010 finalist Vera Zvonareva in the second round.

Advertisement

Also in her part of the draw are former grand slam champions Garbine Muguruza, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Venus Williams, who share in 11 major titles between them (12 including Swiatek’s French Open title last year).

Muguruza and Kuznetsova could set up a second-round clash if they beat Fiona Ferro and a qualifier, respectively, in their first-round clashes, while the Spaniard could face Williams in a rematch of their 2017 championship clash in the third round.

At the bottom of the draw is second seed Aryna Sabalenka, who could face as many as three qualifiers or lucky losers on her way to a projected fourth-round clash against Greek 15th seed Maria Sakkari, a recent semi-finalist at Roland Garros.

Also in her part of the draw are 18th seed Elena Rybakina, the recent victor over Serena Williams in Paris, as well as former US Open champion Samantha Stosur, who enters the draw with a protected ranking after becoming a mother recently.

Barring any major upsets, the women’s quarter-finals onwards are projected to unfold as follows.

Quarter-finals
[1] Ashleigh Barty (AUS) vs [5] Bianca Andreescu (CAN)
[3] Elina Svitolina (UKR) vs [6] Serena Williams (USA)
[8] Karolina Pliskova (CZE) vs [4] Sofia Kenin (USA)
[7] Iga Swiatek (POL) vs [2] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR)

Semi-finals
[1] Ashleigh Barty (AUS) vs [6] Serena Williams (USA)
[4] Sofia Kenin (USA) vs [2] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR)

Advertisement

Predicted championship outcome
[6] Serena Williams (USA) defeats [4] Sofia Kenin (USA)

As is convention, the reigning champion in both the men’s and women’s singles begin the day’s play on Centre Court on Monday and Tuesday, respectively.

This means that 2019 champion Novak Djokovic will begin the day’s play on Monday night (AEST).

However, as Simona Halep has withdrawn from the tournament, it remains to be seen who will open the day’s play on Tuesday – it could be either the previous champion before Halep (Angelique Kerber), or the runner-up from 2019 (Serena Williams).

close