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Opinion
When the Saints led 20-5 at quarter time most of us thought it was going to be short-lived.
Then, by halftime, when the scores favoured St Kilda 33-12, we assumed Richmond would do what it has always done and wrestle control back in the third term with a Dustin Martin momentum-shifting snap that would kick start a flood of goals.
It didn’t happen.
Tigers captain Trent Cotchin tried to influence the contest with aggression, tackling, and pressure, hoping it would have a ripple effect on his men, but that didn’t happen.
At the start of the last quarter the Tigers faced a 36-point deficit. If any team could come back from six-goals it would be Richmond. That didn’t happen.
When the final siren sound Richmond had only scored two goals against a team sitting in 12th position and only managed a total of 22 points – their lowest since 1961. The Tigers couldn’t get out of first gear.
For most of the match they looked flat. It was un-Richmond like. They’ve been the benchmark team for pressure and defence over the past five years and have shown they can win from any position: even in last year’s Grand Final they mowed down a 15-point Geelong lead in a tight affair.
Last Friday night Tigers fans waited patiently for their former juggernaut football club to correct the scoreline.
But it didn’t happen.
The wheels haven’t quite fallen off the Richmond wagon but the 40-point loss to a middling St.Kilda has put a blowtorch on their patchy form and it’s hard to imagine – at this point – that the Tigers will become three-peat premiers by the end of this year.
This year was always going to be a hard nut to crack for Richmond. With virtually the same team for the last five years, only making small changes and tweaks, the list is starting to break down and hit the wall with injuries. Any premiership contender needs a full healthy list and key personnel; the Tigers haven’t had that for large periods this year.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
On the flip side, they’ve had some great luck in having few injuries through their premiership runs. Sorry Tigers fans: it had to happen at some point. And yes, it could mean Richmond won’t win the flag.
Missing from the Saints game were players like Toby Nankervis who could have influenced the game against Paddy Ryder. Tom Lynch would have given Richmond another tall, contested-marking beast option inside 50.
David Astbury’s ground-level heroics weren’t there. Nathan Broad, Noah Balta and Mabior Chol now face injury concerns. Nick Vlastuin might have a cork.
You can sense Damien Hardwick feels like the three-peat dream is slowly vanishing. It’s definitely less vivid than the start of the season. But the dream isn’t dead yet.
“We’ve got a hell of a lot of work to do. There’s no doubt about that. At the moment we’re too inconsistent. We’re off the pace,” he said. “We just have to make that we play our brand and bring our brand week in, week out.”
It certainly feels that way. That Richmond can flick a switch and make games evaporate in ten minutes of intense pressing, slick and quick ball movement and chaos goals that are hard to defend. That’s been the Tigers’ signature brand of footy. But as we saw against St.Kilda, it’s not as easy as it once was to shift into beast mode especially if their opposition is up for the fight.
We’ve seen flashes of old, unstoppable Richmond. Against the Giants they were down by 21 at the main break and won by four. Dusty Martin bagged 4.2 and had 28 touches. During the Dreamtime game they fell behind by four points against Essendon in the last quarter, only to turn-it-on during a ten-minute goal blitz where they kicked 7.1 to win by 39. Martin, again, kicked three goals with 27 disposals.
Dustin Martin. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
When games have hung in the balance, it’s been an inspired Martin who comes to the rescue with a goal on cue. The Brownlow Medallist has kicked 16 goals this year, leads the Tigers for centre clearances and inside 50s. What we’re learning is that Martin can’t do it all and his performance alone can’t win them a third premiership in as many years.
The things Richmond have excelled at, the things that made them an elite group, have dropped off. They are ranked ninth for points against; in previous years they were far more stingy and were ranked 17th, 15th, 17th, 16th.
Another sign of their leaky defensive structures, this year they’ve conceded 80 points or more in nine out of 14 games. Historically they’ve been able to keep teams below 80 at least 60 percent of a season. This normally wins them games.
Something needs to shift. Someone needs to step up. It’s going to take Trent Cotchin, or a leader like him, to light that fire in a calm and steady fashion. But they need to get on a roll. And they need to do it now.
Richmond are 3-4 in their last seven. The stop-start nature of of how they are playing right now won’t be enough of a platform to push them into three-peat territory. The somewhat easy run home won’t be enough to grant them access to finals.
From a distance it looks like the Tigers ship is capsizing from too many issues working against them. They are vulnerable. They’ve lost their fear factor. It’s not impossible to think that Richmond can pull off the unthinkable, but they need to be at their brutal best from here on in to defy history and sadly, for Tigers fans, they are a long way from it.