It’s that time of year again where, with just seven rounds remaining until the finals get underway, the focus turns to your team’s run to September.

As always, this will be divided into two parts, with Part 1 looking at the teams currently in the eight, and Part 2 covering the teams outside of it, with particular interest centring on whether North Melbourne can avoid their first wooden spoon in nearly half a century.

Western Bulldogs
Currently first (12 wins, three losses, 48 premiership points, 147.6 per cent)
Matches to play: Sydney Swans (Marvel), Gold Coast Suns (Metricon), Adelaide Crows (Mars), Melbourne (MCG), Essendon (Marvel), Hawthorn (UTAS), Port Adelaide (Marvel)

Currently sitting in top spot on the ladder ahead of Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs will face a good test of their premiership credentials in the run to September, starting with this weekend’s heavyweight clash against the Sydney Swans at home.

The clash between the Bulldogs and Swans shapes as a tantalising finals preview, especially with the Swans coming off a 92-point thrashing of the West Coast Eagles in Geelong, which preceded the Dogs’ straight-forward win over North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium.

Beyond that, they should give their percentage a boost with matches against the lowly Gold Coast Suns and Adelaide Crows, before they face Melbourne for a second time this season, at the MCG in Round 20.

A crunch match against Essendon, who are still right in the finals hunt, then looms at Marvel Stadium in what will be the Bulldogs’ milestone 2000th VFL/AFL match dating back to their entry into the competition in 1925.

Luke Beveridge’s men then finish off against Hawthorn in Tasmania, followed by Port Adelaide at home in what also shapes as a potential finals preview, with the likelihood that the two teams could again face each other in the first week of the finals series.

Despite having to face a red-hot Swans and Melbourne in the run home, I can’t see the Bulldogs failing to sing the team song again in 2021, and have them finishing as minor premiers.

Predicted finish: first.

Melbourne
Currently second (12 wins, three losses, 48 premiership points, 128.5 per cent)
Matches to play: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Hawthorn (MCG), Gold Coast Suns (Metricon), Western Bulldogs (MCG), West Coast Eagles (Optus), Adelaide Crows (MCG), Geelong Cats (GMHBA)

The last thing the Dees would want is to have to travel to the City of Churches for what shapes as a crunch game against Port Adelaide this Thursday night.

Last Saturday, Simon Goodwin’s men suffered a shock nine-point loss to the GWS Giants, that being their third loss against a side that were not in the eight at the time of the match, after previous losses to the Adelaide Crows and Collingwood in Rounds 10 and 13 respectively.

After the trip to Adelaide, they will start hot favourites against lowly Hawthorn and the Gold Coast Suns before they face the Western Bulldogs for the second time this season at the MCG in Round 20, in what will serve as a finals entree.

They also face tricky trips to Perth to face the West Coast Eagles, and to Geelong where they’ll face the Cats in the final round, on either side of hosting the Adelaide Crows at home in Round 22.

The trip to Geelong will indirectly mark a decade since the Dees copped a near-record 186-point thrashing in 2011, a result that not only cost the late Dean Bailey his job but also set the club back significantly in their rebuild.

In the end, I have the Dees losing three of their final four (to the Dogs, Eagles and Cats), leaving them to finish in fifth place on the ladder and facing a home elimination final against Essendon.

Predicted finish: fifth.

Brisbane Lions
Currently third (11 wins, four losses, 44 premiership points, 134.7 per cent)
Matches to play: St Kilda (TBC), Richmond (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Gold Coast Suns (Gabba), Fremantle (Optus), Collingwood (Gabba), West Coast Eagles (Gabba)

Another strong win over the weekend has the Brisbane Lions primed for a top-two finish for the third consecutive year, with which will come their first two finals at the Gabba.

After losing three of their first four matches, Chris Fagan’s side have hit top form over the past three months, even winning five matches in a row without reigning Brownlow Medalist Lachie Neale in tow.

Their only loss in that period was against Melbourne at Giants Stadium, while they have also put the likes of Port Adelaide, Richmond and the Geelong Cats to the sword at the Gabba, where they have lost just twice since the start of last season.

Looking at the run home, they will start hot favourites to defeat St Kilda on Saturday night, but where it is played remains up in the air, with the Queensland government yet to give the Lions and Saints approval to contest the match at the Gabba.

Following that, the Lions get back-to-back matches at the MCG, against Richmond and Hawthorn, before they (hopefully) return home to face the Gold Coast Suns in the 21st edition of the QClash.

A long trip to Perth to face Fremantle follows, though that is dependent on whether the WA government will soften its border with Queensland, before back-to-back matches at the Gabba against Collingwood and the West Coast Eagles to round out the season.

The Eagles are the only current top-eight team the Lions will face in the run home, but even then, the Lions have won their last two against them quite convincingly.

I just can’t see the Lions losing again this year and I have them finishing just behind the Western Bulldogs on the ladder.

Predicted finish: second.

Port Adelaide
Currently fourth (11 wins, four losses, 44 premiership points, 124.4 per cent)
Matches to play: Melbourne (Adelaide Oval), St Kilda (Marvel), Collingwood (Adelaide Oval), GWS Giants (Manuka Oval), Adelaide Crows (Adelaide Oval, away), Carlton (Adelaide Oval), Western Bulldogs (Marvel)

Three strong wins in the past three weeks have Port Adelaide in a strong position to again finish in the top four, which comes with the opportunity to host either a semi-final or preliminary final at the Adelaide Oval.

Last week, Ken Hinkley’s side were able to block out the occasion of one of their former favourite sons, Shaun Burgoyne, playing his 400th AFL game to beat the Hawks by 34 points and keep alive their hopes of the double chance in September.

Of the Power’s seven remaining matches, three of them are against sides currently in the eight, including this Thursday night’s home match against Melbourne, which the AFL has confirmed will kick off Round 17.

They also have to face the GWS Giants in Canberra, though whether that match goes ahead in the nation’s capital is dependent on whether the South Australian government opens its borders to the Australian Capital Territory by then.

Port will also be desperately hoping that there is unrestricted travel between South Australia and Victoria for the preceding match against Collingwood, as it will mark nearly four years since they last hosted the Pies at the Adelaide Oval.

After back-to-back games at the Adelaide Oval against the Adelaide Crows and Carlton, the Power then wrap up with a finals rehearsal against the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium.

That final-round match against the Bulldogs is the only game I have marked as a loss for Port Adelaide, but they should have done enough by then to secure fourth place on the ladder, and therefore a rematch against the Dogs in the first week of finals.

Predicted finish: fourth.

Geelong Cats
Currently fifth (11 wins, four losses, 44 premiership points, 123.4 per cent)
Matches to play: Carlton (MCG), Fremantle (Optus), Richmond (MCG), North Melbourne (Blundstone), GWS Giants (GMHBA), St Kilda (GMHBA), Melbourne (GMHBA)

After a disappointing loss to the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, the Geelong Cats righted the ship last Friday night when they came from four goals down to defeat Essendon by 41 points in the teams’ first clash at Kardinia Park since 1993.

But the win over the Bombers came at a cost, with Jeremy Cameron set to miss several weeks after suffering yet another hamstring injury, that coming on top of the knee injury Mitch Duncan picked up in their Round 14 win over the Western Bulldogs.

That will test the Cats’ depth, but none more so than in the next month when they play four straight games away from home, including two at the MCG as well as a trip west to face Fremantle at Optus Stadium.

They then finish with three straight home games at Kardinia Park, including against current top-eight sides the GWS Giants and Melbourne, on either side of facing St Kilda, who are unlikely to play finals in 2021.

Like the Western Bulldogs and Brisbane Lions, I can’t see the Cats losing another game for the rest of the season but as far as the game against the Dees goes, the home ground advantage might be what gets them home in that one.

Predicted finish: third.

Sydney Swans
Currently sixth (nine wins, six losses, 36 premiership points, 114.5 per cent)
Matches to play: Western Bulldogs (Marvel), GWS Giants (TBD), Fremantle (SCG), Essendon (Marvel), St Kilda (Marvel), North Melbourne (Marvel), Gold Coast Suns (SCG)

After being forced out of Sydney due to the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak in the Harbour City, which shows no signs of improving, the Sydney Swans have got on with the business of playing footy with minimal fuss.

In the past two weeks following the club’s bye, the Swans fell just short of knocking over Port Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval, before unleashing hell on the West Coast Eagles last Sunday, winning by 92 points in a match that was played in front of just under 10,000 fans at Kardinia Park.

Of the club’s seven remaining matches, four of them are at Marvel Stadium, including this Sunday’s blockbuster match against the Western Bulldogs as well as a run of three straight in Rounds 20-22 against Essendon, St Kilda and North Melbourne.

The clash against the Dogs will test the Swans’ finals credentials, before they face the Giants for the second time this season at a venue still to be determined, and it’s unlikely the COVID situation in Sydney will improve in time for it to be played at Giants Stadium.

The status of their SCG matches against Fremantle and the Gold Coast Suns in Rounds 19 and 23 respectively are also in doubt, with the match against the Dockers certain to be relocated elsewhere as it is unlikely WA’s hard border with NSW will be lifted by then.

On the field, they will want to reverse earlier season losses to the Giants, Suns and Freo, while they will also face a potentially tricky clash against Essendon at Docklands in Round 20, with the Bombers still in the mix for September.

In the end I have them winning six of their final seven matches, with this Sunday’s clash against the Bulldogs the exception.

Predicted finish: sixth.

West Coast Eagles
Currently seventh (eight wins, seven losses, 32 premiership points, 95.3 per cent)
Matches to play: North Melbourne (Optus), Adelaide Crows (Adelaide Oval), St Kilda (Optus), Collingwood (MCG), Melbourne (Optus), Fremantle (Optus), Brisbane Lions (Gabba)

Despite last week’s humiliating 92-point loss to the Sydney Swans in Geelong, which saw their percentage drop below 100, the West Coast Eagles remain in seventh place on the ladder though many will be questioning why they are even in the eight in the first place.

Adam Simpson’s men will come under the spotlight, and rightly so, for what could only be described as an insipid effort in which they managed a score of only 3.8 (26) – their lowest score since late 1992, ironically a premiership year for them.

It was also their second loss at Kardinia Park by more than 90 points this season, after losing to the Geelong Cats by 97 points in Round 6.

They will have more than one week to put that horror loss behind them, as they are scheduled to face North Melbourne at home next Monday night, after which is followed by a trip to Adelaide to face the Crows at the Adelaide Oval.

The only top-eight sides they have to face in the run home are Melbourne at home in Round 21, and the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba in Round 23, while they will also get only one chance to impress at the MCG when they face Collingwood there in Round 20.

There is every chance the Eagles could either be playing for a finals berth, or to defend it, when they travel to the sunshine capital in the final round, should their woes continue in the coming weeks.

On my ladder predictor I have them winning five of their seven remainders, with the losses being against the Dees and Lions, which means they would remain where they are now by the end of Round 23.

Predicted finish: seventh.

GWS Giants
Currently eighth (seven wins, one draw, seven losses, 30 premiership points, 97.1 per cent)
Matches to play: Gold Coast Suns (Mars), Sydney Swans (TBD), Essendon (Marvel), Port Adelaide (Manuka), Geelong Cats (GMHBA), Richmond (Giants), Carlton (Marvel)

With their draw against North Melbourne in Hobart in Round 13, the Giants’ finals destiny is now in their own hands, with percentage no longer a factor.

After a disappointing loss to Hawthorn at home in Round 15, Leon Cameron’s men produced a solid, controlled performance leading from start to finish to upset ladder leaders Melbourne by nine points at the MCG last Saturday afternoon.

That has many questioning why the club hasn’t been able to produce such consistent performances all season round, but to their credit, they’ve been able to force their way into the eight amid a horror injury toll.

Many were fearing another season of failure for the Giants after they lost veterans Stephen Coniglio, Phil Davis and Matt de Boer in Round 3, but Cameron has seen an upside to it, exposing his younger players to the big time on a regular basis.

The reformed Toby Greene has led from the front since then, and there have been calls for him to replace Coniglio permanently as the club’s captain at season’s end.

Like the Swans, it remains to be seen whether the Giants will play any more games in Sydney this year, with their clash against the Gold Coast Suns this Sunday shifted to Ballarat, with a starting time of 12:40pm.

The status of the Sydney Derby the following week is also in doubt, with the likelihood that it may again be played on neutral territory after last year’s lone derby was played behind WA’s hard borders, which cost both clubs both commercially.

The best case scenario is that it may be played in Canberra, the Giants’ second home, should the Victorian government downgrade the nation’s capital from an orange to a green zone. The worst is that it could be played in regional Victoria.

Leon Cameron’s men will also face tough clashes against Essendon, Port Adelaide, the Geelong Cats and Richmond, with the Bombers and Tigers both desperate to keep their own finals chances alive. They then finish up against Carlton at Marvel Stadium in Round 23.

In the end, the fact they could only pick up two premiership points out of eight from the bottom two teams will come back to bite them should they miss out on finals footy for a second straight year.

Predicted finish: tenth.

In Part 2, I look at the ten sides currently outside the eight.