Opinion
By this point in the AFL season, we know which teams are top-four contenders and which teams will end up at the bottom of the ladder. What we don’t know is the fate of the sides in between.
Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Geelong have locked up a spot in the top eight, while Adelaide, Gold Coast, Collingwood, Hawthorn and North Melbourne will not make the finals.
That leaves us with eight teams in the hunt for three finals spots.
Sydney Swans
Western Bulldogs (A), Greater Western Sydney (A), Fremantle (H), Essendon (A), St Kilda (H), North Melbourne (A) and Gold Coast (H)
Currently the highest on the ladder out of these eight teams, the Swans had a quick 4-0 start to the season, in part due to Buddy Franklin returning from injury and have won about the same number of games as they’ve lost since that start.
Playing Western Bulldogs, GWS and Essendon away will be a challenge, however they should be able to win their remaining games with ease and comfortably make the finals.
Still, their form hasn’t been the greatest, so a collapse is possible, but it looks unlikely as they just thumped the West Coast Eagles this weekend.
Lance Franklin (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
West Coast Eagles
North Melbourne (H), Adelaide (A), St Kilda (H), Collingwood (A), Melbourne (H), Fremantle (A) and Brisbane (A)
These are all winnable except the away game against the Lions.
The Eagles have one of the best home advantages in the AFL at Optus Stadium, however we cannot be sure that all their remaining home games will be played there. If they are though, then expect West Coast to win their next two home games and go toe to toe with the Demons. If not, their run is tough, as West Coast are known to struggle on the road and we can’t expect them to play well at ‘home’.
GWS Giants
Gold Coast (H), Sydney (H), Essendon (A), Port Adelaide (H), Geelong (A), Richmond (H), and Carlton (A)
Although they started poorly, GWS’s form has significantly improved and they find themselves eighth on the ladder. This looks like a tough run home on paper, as every side they’re playing – except Gold Coast – are competing for or have already cemented a spot in the eight.
If they are to make the finals, they will likely have to beat most of the sides around them – Richmond, Essendon, Sydney and Carlton.
Richmond Tigers
Collingwood (H), Brisbane (H), Geelong (A), Fremantle (A), North Melbourne (H), GWS Giants (A), Hawthorn (H)
Honestly, whether Richmond do or do not make the finals depends upon their form – one of the keys to which is their defence.
Although they’ve lost their last two games to sides currently not in the eight, they’ve still got it this season as they beat the Western Bulldogs and went toe to toe with Port Adelaide. Their game against the Giants could be key in deciding whether they make the eight.
Fremantle Dockers
Hawthorn (A), Geelong (H), Sydney (A), Richmond (H), Brisbane (H), West Coast (H), and St Kilda (A)
Despite being one of the most improved teams on this list, the Dockers have missed out on the finals by a decent margin for the past few years and have a difficult run home, as they play only one team that isn’t competing or has cemented a spot in the eight.
Fremantle have caused some upsets in the past, having beaten Geelong last year and Sydney at home earlier this year, but they are riddled with injuries and will likely have to win every one of their games against the teams around them and upset one of the top-six sides to make the finals.
St Kilda Saints
Brisbane (A), Port Adelaide (H), West Coast (A), Carlton (H), Sydney (A), Geelong (A), and Fremantle (H)
After making finals for the first time in more than ten years last season, the Saints have taken a backward step in 2021. Although they’ve won their last two games, it is unlikely that St Kilda will be making the finals as they have to overtake two other teams to do so, which would involve winning most of their games and their run home is brutal – they’ll be lucky to win three more games.
Dan Butler of the Saints kicks the winning goal (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Essendon Bombers
Adelaide (H), North Melbourne (A), GWS Giants (H), Sydney (H), Western Bulldogs (A), Gold Coast (A), and Collingwood (H)
The Dons have probably the easiest run home out of all the teams vying for a spot in the eight and it is possible that they lose only one game for the rest of the season. However, whether Essendon make the finals or not will likely depend upon how the teams above them perform in their remaining games, as three teams separate them from the top eight.
Carlton Blues
Geelong (H), Collingwood (A), North Melbourne (H), St Kilda (A), Gold Coast (H), Port Adelaide (A), and GWS Giants (H)
Carlton were widely expected to make a leap this season but they haven’t thus far and will likely have to win most – if not all – of their games in order to make the finals.
This is a tough ask, as they have to play two sides in the top five and two other teams also contending for a spot in the top eight, but they looked impressive against the Dockers on the weekend and have the potential to cause multiple upsets if they continue to play that way.
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