Opinion
Back to the lounge room this Saturday for a lockdown meeting at Randwick. The forecast isn’t pretty so it might be a case of putting the uggies on, watching ’90s cricket replays and then responsibly getting stuck into the gallops.
Big winds, a wet track and a stack of scratchings are what we’re looking at. I’m particularly trusting my 2020 theory of leaders on the winter wet short course at Randwick, hopefully De Grawin cuts the corner and everyone can go home, sorry stay home, with their pockets full.
Dixie’s 2021 tally
Outlay: 281 units
Return: 377.50 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition. No bet in Race 1 being largely untried two-year-olds.
Race 2 – 7 Alvin The Bold (one unit)
Alvin The Bold carried over 60 kilos to lead and win well at Hawkesbury last time. He’s drawn perfectly here, wet should be okay and Kerrin McEvoy on board is a yes from me. Allinthistogether is aptly named for our current status and her win at Gosford was pretty good.
Race 3 – 1 Casino Kid (one unit)
I am sticking with last-start winner Casino Kid. He jumps in weight from his recent Highway win, but he deserves it after being dominant. That was on a slow seven so he ticks the wet track box. Zoo Station is the main threat but has drawn the outside and is untried in the slop.
Race 4 – 3 De Grawin (three units)
My old mate De Grawin looks perfectly placed here, the conditions are perfect, she’s back at Randwick and her 2020 mate Louise Day gives her weight relief. Brazen Gem is the second pick. I can see us crossing to lead and allowing Brazen to sit outside before kicking clear in the straight.
Race 5 – 12 Karmazone (one unit)
Karmazone comes to town in his best form, winning his last two. He’s run on strongly in both and drops sharply in weight. This horse is not a great starter but should run the trip and is well placed at the big price. I am tipping against Harpo Marx, who was impressive late at Rosehill but gives our guy weight and is getting into a silly price.
Race 6 – 4 Perigord (one unit)
I am happy to take Perigord at double-figure odds. It’s another race with a very short-priced favourite with no heavy track form, while our boy is two from three in the conditions. His win at Canterbury last prep is around the mark, I’m hoping Brock Ryan can get him cover midfield from the gate and he can test them late. Destination should be better from the inside barrier and is the threat.
Race 7 – 4 Royal Banquet (two units)
I promise to can Royal Banquet if he doesn’t get the biscuits here. This is his third go since an injury lay-off, he should be at his best now, which is far too good for these. His top rater was on a heavy ten about a year ago at Warwick Farm, where he bolted in and won by five. Cuban Royale is the other one with wet form but a clear second rater.
Race 8 – 11 Threeood (two units)
Threeood is another one of mine (that sort of day?). The jockey reported she got all riled up on the way out last time, where she was paying $5.50 in the same class. This race suits better being on her preferred heavy surface, she’ll be peaking third-up and is over $20 today! Green light. The interesting runner is Countofmontecristo, who’s having his second go since coming over from Singapore. That’s hard for me to line up but he’s suited at 1400 metres if the wet track is okay.
Race 9 – 12 Madam Legend (one unit)
I have the favourites sorting this one out. Madam Legend was very good when backed first up, 1200 metres is fine, the wet track is a tick and she’s nicely weighted with Brock Ryan’s claim (Ryan could be in for a big day). I Am Power brings Hong Kong form, and it’s held up in his two Australian runs. He’s been rested for this and is the danger.
Race 10 – 9 Off Shaw (one unit)
Off Shaw is three from eight at 1400 metres and three from seven on heavy going. He’ll race on speed here for Tim Clark (gun front runner) and give a sight. Blondeau is a good hope and has a win on heavy. I rate Matowatakpe as a hope for a Bjorn Baker quinella after his good win last time at midweek level.
Good luck everyone, here’s hoping the fire is warm and the beers are cold. Stay safe and please feel free to comment about your thoughts on the day of racing.
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