It is now over 40 years since Australia won its last medal in an Olympic Games (OG) mens running event; that being Rick Mitchell who won a silver medal in the 400m at Moscow in 1980.
This year Australia has two reasonable chances to medal in the mens 1500m with Stewart McSweyn and Oliver Hoare.
On 9 July 2021, McSweyn ran the fourth fastest time in the world this year with the Australian record of 3:29.51, eight days after he ran the Australian mile record of 3:48.37 when winning at the Bislett Diamond League meeting.
McSweyn has been a regular on the Diamond League circuit winning three races since 2018 and placing high in many other races in the sport’s major international circuit.
He currently leads the points standings for the Diamond League 1500m.
Oliver Hoare, who won the NCAA title in 2018 beating a good field which included Great Britain’s Josh Kerr (so far 5th fastest in the world 2021), came into OG medal calculations after winning the 1500m at the 2021 New Balance Indoor Grand Prix in a time of 3:32.35 (last 300m 41.67).
Hoare, who has an outdoor personal best of 3:33.19 (9 May 2021), has the ability to run much faster given that racing indoors on a banked surface and tighter smaller track is estimated to be worth as high as four seconds over 1500m when compared to an outdoor 400m track.
Hoare and McSweyn have only met once where they finished second and third respectively in a May 2021 Diamond League 1500m race at Gateshead in cold and wet conditions.
Of course, having the potential to run fast in a one off 1500m race is one thing. Carrying it out in a major championship is another.
Many global championships 1500m finals are indeed run at a slower pace when compared to Diamond League races which are often set up for fast times through pacemakers.
With the OG 1500m record set in 2000 by Noah Ngeny (Kenya) with 3:32.07, the 2016 OG 1500m was won by Matthew Centrowitz, Jr (US) in a very slow 3:50.00.
The Japanese National Flag over the Olympic Rings symbol is seen at the entrance of the Japan Olympic Museum in Shinjuku. (Photo by Stanislav Kogiku/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Hence, the type of pace and necessary preliminary races to qualify for the final may suit one of the Australians more than the other, as well as some of their rivals.
Second, world rankings can matter little when it comes to a global championship.
The 2016 1500m winner Matthew Centrowitz was ranked 20th in 2016 on times with 3:34.09, and 12th in 2015 when running 3:30.40 in the 2015 Monoco Diamond League meeting.
The 2016 1500m bronze medal winner Nick Willis (New Zealand) also ranked just 23rd in 2016 on times with 3:34.29, although ranking 5th in 2015 when running 3:29.66 at the Monoco Diamond League meeting.
While the chances of McSweyn and Hoare are enhanced by Kenya’s 1,500m world champion Timothy Cheruiyot not going to Tokyo after he finished fourth at Kenya’ OG trials, there will be many other runners who also have a chance to medal.
Beyond the Kenyans, Ethiopians, British and Americans, there is Spain’s Mohamed Katir and Norway’s Jakob Ingebrigtsen who both beat McSweyn home in the Monaco Diamond league race when all three finished behind Timothy Cheruiyot with his 2021 fastest time of 3:28.28 in a race that set eight of the nine fastest times of the year so far.
But whether McSweyn and Hoare medal or not, it will be quite an achievement for them to reach the final, as it would also be for the third Australian OG representative Jye Edwards who ran a personal best of 3:33.23 in the 2021 Monaco Diamond League event.
After all, since Herb Elliott’s 1500m gold medal in 1960, Australia has only had two finalists in the mens 1500m final: Graham Crouch 8th in 1976 and Ryan Gregson 9th 2016.
Whether Australia medals or not, I hope Australians will watch and appreciate whatever performance our Australian 1500m runners produce given that making the OG final is still an excellent achievement in such a competitive global sport.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
I would agree Hoare is out best running medal chance
GT
Roar Rookie
Associated Press (AP) today published its' list of medal predictions. The only athletics medal predicted for Australia was Oli Hoare in the 1500 (bronze).
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
yes, I saw his run on facebook. looked very good. 10.20 into a headwind means he is in good form. Hopefull new track in Tokyo will be fast.
jameswm
Roar Guru
He ran 10.20 into a solid diagonal headwind last weekend. Turn it around into a legal 1.5-2m/sec tailwind and he'd have been close to 10.00 or even under. He's in top shape - I'm not ruling out making the final. It took 10.01 with a 0.2 tailwind to make the final in Rio, and 10.02 with a 1.0m/sec tailwind in London, and in WC in 2019 it took 10.11 with a o.8m/sec tailwind. He could definitely have done that in 2019 in today's form.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
making the final would be outstanding, as would be a personal best if he gets the right conditions.
jameswm
Roar Guru
I'm expecting Browning to step up big time. Massively motivated, super tough competitor, very bright (which doesn't always help). His long time coach has gone over with him too.
jameswm
Roar Guru
He does, but Jakob at his best is close. Also the US Champ Hocker, he has a brutal kick and is a chance off a slow pace and if he can position himself well, like Centro does so often.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
would be great if both Browning and Hoare do well. I do think Hoare is a very good competitor, although most runners at that level would be.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
yes, it is a very good replacement for the 1500m given the 2019 world champ looks nearly unbeatable given his Monoco run.
jameswm
Roar Guru
I reckon just an excuse from Kenya to get Tim in, after the form he's been showing. The guy who won their trials - McSweyn and Hoare would beat him most times.
jameswm
Roar Guru
Agreed. McSweyn is good off a Diamond League strong pace, but unlikely to get that - unless one of Jakob's older brothers makes the final and runs as pacesetter. Ollie Hoare a chance at Olympic medal. Incredible 5 years ago that I could be saying that - but very happy to be. He and Browning went tot he same school, and there's another 3 or 4 doing big things that could push it too soon, or even Comm Games next year.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
runner was dropped for good reasons. “But Etiang hasn’t met doping regulations that require Kenyan athletes to take at least three out-of-competition tests within 10 months of a major championship. The tests have to be at least three weeks apart. Those rules are enforced on Kenya because the country is considered high risk by the World Anti-Doping Agency after a large number of doping cases in recent years”. https://www.espn.com.au/olympics/story/_/id/31821002/2-runners-dropped-kenya-olympic-team-doping-tests-timothy-cheruiyot-makes-squad
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
wow, hard to see Timothy Cheruiyot losing. Hopefully we can get a medal. I favour Hoare as our best chance.
jameswm
Roar Guru
By the way: "While the chances of McSweyn and Hoare are enhanced by Kenya’s 1,500m world champion Timothy Cheruiyot not going to Tokyo after he finished fourth at Kenya’ OG trials, there will be many other runners who also have a chance to medal. Beyond the Kenyans, Ethiopians, British and Americans, there is Spain’s Mohamed Katir and Norway’s Jakob Ingebrigtsen who both beat McSweyn home in the Monaco Diamond league race when all three finished behind Timothy Cheruiyot with his 2021 fastest time of 3:28.28 in a race that set eight of the nine fastest times of the year so far." Katir is not running the 1500 but Cheruiyot now is. Hard to see either of our guys beating Cheruiyot or Jakob, but they are in there with a chance for a medal with various others. And in an Olympics, who knows how Jakob and Cheruiyot will go? Anything can happen.