Opinion
We stay in our lounge rooms this week as racing heads west to Rosehill.
Thankfully our run of heavy tracks may be over with a slight upgrade, and we have a competitive card to run through.
Last week? Well I regretfully pinned my hopes on Nikohli Beagle, who tried to get the hot spot behind the leader and ended up three back the fence and running into backsides. Oh the pain!
Thankfully Steely saluted at a reasonable price to limit the damage and salvage a respectable result.
Dixie’s 2021 tally
Outlay: 303 units
Return: 398.20 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 3 – 6 Yiyi (one unit)
I am kicking off in Race 3 this week after shouldering arms to a solid two-year-old race with four last-start winners and a Highway with form lines from every which way.
6. Yiyi was a soft winner at Newcastle first-up, stepping up in distance to 1500 metres is perfect and he’s drawn well for J-Mac, so there’s absolutely no excuses.
I have 10. Just Tozza as a risk at odds. He only broke his maiden last start but is lightly raced and gets a lovely weight drop for this. 5. Black Bolt was beaten by 9. Adamas Prince at the start of July so there’s value there with the Prince, while 3. Go Troppo won at this level last start but carries more weight as a result.
Race 4 – 6 Chat (one unit)
I’m quite keen on 6. Chat. He’s back from a good break, he was racing against some good ones – specifically Flit and Alligator Blood – around carnival time last year. The 1100 metres isn’t absolutely ideal but I expect him to be running on well with the feather weight.
With the scratching of 3. Isaurian, 5. All Time Legend is now odds-on. He rates well and has a good first-up record, the 1100 trip is a risk for him as well. 1. Trumbull gets ticks at 1100 metres, the soft surface and first-up and must be respected on class.
(Reg Ryan/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Race 5 – 13 Arabolini (one unit)
The bottom-weight 13. Arabolini has flat out out-stayed them for two recent wins at Gosford. This is a step up but with Ellen Hennessy’s three-kilo claim he can give a good sight from in front at big odds. 10. Sound of Cannons generally finds drama and features in stewards reports, he’s right in this with a bit of luck and the early money has come for him. 1. Harpo Marx is a deserved favourite but is short enough lugging 60.5 kilos over the extra trip. 9. Karmazone is in the mix again.
Race 6 – 7 Brazen Gem (one unit)
Poor old 7. Brazen Gem has been a regular in Steward’s Reports this prep, with a check in the straight first-up, the heavy Warwick Farm surface blamed next time and a cut to her leg after being contacted at the start last start. I’m trusting Bjorn has her sorted, the drying conditions are a massive plus, she can run well at a price in this.
I’m intrigued by 4. Hasstobegood, another at a big price who’s now trained by Joe Pride and can mix it with these if she’s right to go. The favourites all rate around the mark and their prices are fair enough, 10. Seleque’s first-up win has her going close.
Race 7 – 9 Cisco Bay (one unit)
The soft track is a massive stamp for 9. Cisco Bay. He’s six from 13 in the going and one from 23 otherwise. He had too much chasing to do last time, in his four goes before that he’s finished within a length of the winner. He is nicely placed here at the minimum weight.
5. Kirwan’s Lane is running well and wasn’t disgraced in a good race down south. 8. True Detective rates next best, he’s generally around the mark but struggles to break through. He’ll be tested at 1500 metres and has no slow-track wins.
Race 8 – No bet
This Midway is an absolute dartboard job, adding it as a quaddie leg has already given me headaches, and the speed map – who leads? If pushed I’d dabble that Clark goes forward from the gate on 9. Savvy Crown, maybe he can control it and salute at a big price?
I’d be looking at 1/3/7/9/10 as a starting point in my quaddie, and could easily be swayed to consider 6. Stormy Mountain, who has some really solid French form and could end up starting at 100/1. Good luck!
Race 9 – 8 Rustic Steel (one unit)
8. Rustic Steel was strong at line for a tough fresh win, he drops weight into this and if Avdulla can find a spot from the wide gate, this horse should go very close. 4. Tycoonist broke through last start after being in the mix behind Papal Warrior, Oscar Zulu and Gravina. That reads very nicely for this. 7. Snitzify could do something fresh if you’re looking for a spicy angle.
Race 10 – 6 Ventura Ocean (one unit)
6. Ventura Ocean is undefeated in his two Australian starts, he’s had two trials into this where he was absolutely cuddled, it’s five weeks since the latest of those and I’m backing he’s got the work in his legs to keep his record intact.
10. Vitesse backs up after winning at a good price last week. She’s a happy horse and can challenge again. 12. Madam Legend won well fresh and could go on with it. If you’re chasing, 8. Dream Circle is an interesting runner, she did nothing as favourite last start and was forced to trial. They ticked that box the next week and he’s now five weeks into this. At his best he’s right around it.
Good luck to everyone watching from home or the golf course, I don’t really have an outlier across the card but hopefully something bobs at a price and I can buy the good whiskey. Please hit me up with your comments across the day and tips for me at Caulfield or up at Doomben.
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