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Opinion
After the unprecedented suspension of play in the match in Perth on Monday night to finish Round 21, we are left with only 18 games of home-and-away football to wind up the curtain-raiser to the main event in September.
The location of the games, some of which are yet to be decided, will have some bearing on the result but will not be as important as the desire of the opposition to win, and this element will be influenced by the likelihood of a win putting their team into the finals.
Melbourne’s win means that they are now back on top of the ladder, and if they stay there, they will play one of either Geelong, the Western Bulldogs or Port Adelaide at the MCG in the first week of the final.
Losing one game would still see them playing at the MCG against one of those teams, but two losses in the final two rounds open the possibility of travelling to Adelaide to play the Power, though the odds of this are remote.
This week only Geelong among the top four play a contender for the finals: St Kilda.
But let’s put aside the top four – they’ll play each other in the last round as a finals taster anyway – to concentrate on the wannabes who have two chances to still make it.
Sydney and Brisbane are fifth and sixth on the ladder, so there are only two positions left to be won. West Coast are vulnerable and one game ahead of the closing pack, but they have a significantly worse percentage than Essendon or Richmond and will play Fremantle and Brisbane in the next fortnight.
A win against Fremantle is expected and would eliminate one contender. However, at least one other (Greater Western Sydney or Richmond) will take four points from their clash, and therefore the Eagles still won’t be safe before the final weekend of football. Essendon is also likely to win against Gold Coast and keep the pressure on.
So the final eight may be decided by the first and last matches of the round. On Friday night Greater Western Sydney take on Richmond in a must-win contest for both sides. Since the horror of the nearly 15-goal thrashing in the 2019 grand final, the two teams have met twice for one victory each in two close games. Both teams are without their main men and matchwinners, and the punters have Richmond as fairly short-priced favourites in what should be a finals-like hard tussle.
As already said, West Coast and Fremantle, playing in the final match of the round, likewise need wins. The Eagles need to retain their points advantage over the various contenders for the last two spots in the eight, while Fremantle need the four points to remain one of those contenders, albeit a rough outside chance.
Between these two bookending games we have the entertainment of seeing if the Saints can remain alive by beating an injury-depleted Geelong team and whether Essendon are up to the challenge of winning a game any finals aspirant should, against the improved Gold Coast Suns.
We also have the opportunity of saying farewell to Carlton’s Marc Murphy in his 300th and last game. Like Kade Simpson before him and Nathan Jones this year, Murphy did not have the luxury of many finals games to add to his tally like other 300 gamers in Jack Riewoldt, Travis Boak, Shannon Hurn and probably Tom Hawkins. In fact Kane Simpson sits on top of the list with 215 losses while Nathan Jones – is he finished? – sits in sixth place with 198.
The once iconic 300-game total will occupy positions 87 to 96 on the top 100 game players list courtesy of five new entrants to the list in 2021. Now the 100th position hot seat is shared by former Richmond sharpshooter Jack Titus and North Melbourne dual Brownlow medalist Keith Greig, who will have to wait to see who out of the five possible candidates – Grant Birchall, Patrick Dangerfield, Tyson Edwards and the two Kennedy brothers will replace them in the second half of next season.
As Murphy has shown, it takes a lot of form, fitness and opportunity to join the AFL elite.
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