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Opinion
Let’s just get this season over with.
It’s been a truly abysmal year for tipping, and yet another week of very ordinary scores means I can’t wait to see the back of it.
Two points were all I could manage thanks to some risky tips not paying off and some unbelievable upsets elsewhere. Before you laugh too hard, I’ll have you know Liam Salter and the Crowd had to settle for four.
Dem just had to get five and look good though.
It does put Liam in a commanding position, however. He has a one-point lead over Dem for the lead among the experts, with the Crowd a point ahead of him.
Two weeks to go, let’s bring it home.
GWS, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Essendon, West Coast
At least this week looks straightforward enough.
A narrow win over the Magpies back in Round 3 was what brought Brisbane back to life when they looked shot at the start of the season, so why not back the same thing to happen this weekend?
I still don’t know if I trust the Lions enough to put them back in premiership contention, but the wheels have fallen off at Collingwood, so you can only tip one way.
Geelong got a surprise against the Giants and then watched St Kilda surprise Sydney. With the Saints therefore losing the element of surprise twice for this one, I’m backing the Cats to resume their winning ways emphatically.
Speaking of losing the element of surprise, Melbourne won’t be falling for Adelaide’s ruse again. They’ll win by a billion.
Gold Coast put the rumours around their coach’s future to bed with a rousing win on the road against Carlton, but Essendon made an even bigger statement against the Western Bulldogs.
The Bombers really are on track to becoming a seriously good side in the near future, and I’ll back them stay in the 2021 finals hunt here.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Sydney need to have their wits about them against North Melbourne but, despite looking flat against the Saints, I’ll back them to bounce back.
Port Adelaide should pile more pressure on Carlton with an easy win, while West Coast should have too much firepower for Freo in the derby.
The Western Bulldogs will bounce back against the plucky Hawks in what has to be this week’s Shoe-In of the Week.
Richmond, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Essendon, West Coast
This is exactly the sort of season the AFL was hoping for.
Unpredictable results right to the end of the season with the order of the top four far from settled, while five teams are still fighting for the final spots in the top eight.
The tantalising game between GWS and Richmond will define the final outlook of the season. The depleted Giants were remarkable against Geelong, the struggling Tigers played a good half against the wooden spooners.
I’m breaking the rules again, let’s go Richmond.
Even though the good teams have proven that they’re not infallible, it’s hard to see major slip-ups in the final fortnight of the season. As such, let’s knock off the easier fixtures.
Port Adelaide have locked a spot in the top four and a big win over Carlton simply must be had with the top two in their sights. They’ll need to get the percentage up.
Melbourne should have absolutely no issues with the Crows this week, particularly given the early-season result between the two teams.
People are catching on that the Hawks aren’t that bad regardless of the coaching turmoil. Still, the Bulldogs surely have a point to prove, the expectation will be that this fixture is at a friendly venue for them.
There is absolutely zero chance that Geelong is losing to St Kilda.
Now things get interesting.
Who knows where the Lions will play the Magpies, but the lowly rated side always tends to make things uncomfortable for Brisbane. A home elimination final is seemingly locked in, but momentum in this competition is perhaps the most valuable asset to have.
Gold Coast are back with a bang, while the Bombers pulled off an upset that has suddenly opened up a finals spot that seems more likely than unlikely if they play in a similar fashion against their next two opponents.
These two teams haven’t played since Round 11 last year, which was a draw, while the result before that was a ten-point win to Essendon. Think this one might be close.
I assume Sydney will beat North Melbourne easily enough, but this corridor play that we see from both teams is a pleasure to watch and lends itself to exciting footy.
Finally, the derby. Who knows?
GWS, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Essendon, West Coast
We’ve got one hell of a tipping finish coming up! I’ll take my score of four of last week and run given the tumultuous results we saw last weekend.
Let’s start with the WA Derby. As is custom for a Freo home game, it’s been placed in the Sunday twilight timeslot.
Derbies are supposed to be unpredictable, but there’s a very clear recent record leaning the Eagles’ way. Notwithstanding the obvious motivation to keep their finals dream alive and ruin their rival’s hopes, with Freo not having Andy Brayshaw, I can’t go past tipping West Coast.
There are three other clashes to watch in terms of the race for the eight, key among them the Giants and Richmond encounter.
Richmond’s second half against North last Saturday was phenomenal and kept them alive another week, though GWS’s win over the Cats was even stronger. The Giants are hopeful to bring in a heap of injured talent – think the likes of Jesse Hogan, Josh Kelly, Phil Davis, Stephen Coniglio – and one win doesn’t make the Tigers’ season.
Regardless of where it’s held, I’ll tip the Giants to continue their march for the eight, and Richmond’s season will be just about over – officially this time.
The team Richmond defeated – the Kangaroos – host the Swans. Both are fun teams to watch, but it’s hard to go against Sydney to bounce back.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Essendon, another team fighting for the eight after a brilliant win in Round 21, play the Suns. An upset here would honestly be utterly unsurprising, but surely the Bombers don’t lose this.
Another game with upset potential that really shouldn’t have any is Port hosting the Blues. Port’s an almost obligatory tip if the Blues repeat their performance from last week, but this would be a quintessential game for the Power to lose. It’ll be close, but they’ll pull it out.
That’s the same story with the Lions over Collingwood, where I envision a close game falling to the advantage of the Queenslanders.
Challengers that will lose, though, are the Saints. Again, they looked fantastic against the Swans, but they haven’t tended to produce that form in consecutive weeks. Geelong are bound to be tough opponents who need to win themselves to keep their minor premiership hopes alive, and they will.
Of the Cats’ minor premiership opponents, the team that holds that mantle headed into the round – Melbourne – should pummel Adelaide. End of.
You’d expect a third team in this race, the Bulldogs, to be able to comfortably beat the Hawks, but this is a tip I’m more hesitant about. The Hawks have started a winning streak since their succession plan woes were emphatically solved, and the Doggies looked vulnerable last week.
| Round 22 | Stirling | Dem | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS vs RCH | GWS | RCH | GWS | RCH |
| HAW vs WB | WB | WB | WB | WB |
| GEE vs STK | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| PA vs CAR | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| BL vs COL | BL | BL | BL | BL |
| NM vs SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| MEL vs ADE | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| GCS vs ESS | ESS | ESS | ESS | ESS |
| FRE vs WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE |
| Last week | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Total | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 |