Opinion
We’ve got just one round to play in what’s been a fiercely unpredictable home-and-away season.
Fittingly, the minor premiership is still up for grabs, three teams can still finish fourth, two top eight spots are still available and there are four teams outside the eight who could potentially nab them.
If you’re not sure where your club could end up at the end of this weekend, or want to know what your team needs to do to climb up the ladder, you’re in the right place.
66 points (16-4-1), 132.3% | vs Geelong Cats (A)
They’d looked wobbly at times, but the Demons are back on track and now face a very simple equation; defeat Geelong and they’ll be minor premiers for the first time since 1964.
That was also the last year they won the flag, for those playing at home.
But while the equation may be simple, the task is not. Melbourne did defeat the Cats earlier this season, but had lost 16 of 18 meetings before that. They haven’t defeated Geelong in consecutive matches since 2005 but have won in Geelong relatively recently – in 2015.
If they lose, they will finish no higher than second and will fall to third if Port Adelaide knock off the Western Bulldogs as well. While everything regarding venues is up in the air, the prospect of an away qualifying final interstate is something the Demons will want to avoid.
It’s a good thing Melbourne don’t have a recent history of stuffing things up in the final round.
64 points (16-5), 128.6% | vs Melbourne (H)
Geelong are once again right in the thick of it at the pointy end of the season and are guaranteed a fifth top four finish in six seasons.
They can go right to the top of the ladder as well with a win over Melbourne – but the four points won’t actually guarantee them the minor premiership.
If Port Adelaide lose to the Western Bulldogs and they beat the Demons, the minor premiership is theirs to enjoy.
However, if Port win by a margin that is roughly 20 points more than what Geelong beat Melbourne by, the Power could leapfrog them into first place.
For example, if Geelong beat Melbourne by 10 points and Port Adelaide beat the Dogs by 35, the Power will likely pass the Cats on percentage. If they both win by similar margins, however, Geelong stay ahead.
If the Cats lose to Melbourne, then they drop to third with a Power win and, thanks to the Dogs’ excellent percentage, will drop to fourth if the Power lose.
64 points (16-5), 127.3% | vs Western Bulldogs (A)
Back-to-back minor premierships are still on the cards for Port Adelaide.
The Power can rise all the way to first if they can defeat the spluttering Western Bulldogs – albeit away from home – by a decent margin and Geelong beat Melbourne by a small margin.
I stress, Port Adelaide are not guaranteed the minor premiership just by winning. Their margin of victory over the Bulldogs must exceed Geelong’s margin over Melbourne by roughly 20 points or more.
If Melbourne win, however, the best the Power can do is finish second – which, again, they’d achieve with a win over the Dogs.
The Bulldogs’ better percentage means Port drop to fourth with a loss. Fortunately, for their sake, they cannot exit the top four.
60 points (15-6), 134.5% | vs Port Adelaide (H)
Last week’s insipid effort against Hawthorn meant the Bulldogs officially scuffed their shot at a first ever minor premiership.
However, they can still launch themselves into second place with a win over Port Adelaide and a Geelong loss to Melbourne. Percentages mean there’s no ambiguity about that – Doggies win plus Cats loss equals second place.
If Geelong win, the Dogs can only move up to third with a win over the Power.
If the Dogs lose, they’re at risk of being bundled out of the top four by Brisbane – who host West Coast. If they lose and the Lions win and the combined margin across the two games is about six goals, they lose the double chance. If both teams lose, however, the Dogs stay fourth – unless the Swans beat Gold Coast by about 300 points.
56 points (14-7), 132.7% | vs West Coast Eagles (H)
Like Melbourne, Brisbane spluttered a bit on the home stretch – but are now in a position where they can make it count at just the right time.
They don’t control their fate, in that they need the Western Bulldogs to lose to Port Adelaide – ideally by a pretty hefty margin – to move into the top four.
As above, for the Lions to finish fourth, they need to beat the Eagles and the Dogs need to lose to the Power and the combined margin across the two games needs to be in the territory of six goals.
So, Brisbane will be hoping the Power torch the Dogs so that any old win over West Coast will do. If Port get up in a close one, then the Lions need to hand out some punishment to be a chance.
If the Bulldogs win (or draw), Brisbane can’t move any higher. If they lose, they fall to sixth if Sydney defeat Gold Coast, or stay in fifth if the Suns get up.
56 points (14-7), 115.1% | vs Gold Coast Suns (H)
The Swans finishing sixth is arguably the safest bet of any top eight placing at this stage.
They cannot drop any lower with a loss and, even with a win, need West Coast to knock off Brisbane – away from home – if they’re to climb to sixth.
Pythagoras will tell you they can still finish in the top four, but their percentage gap to the Bulldogs is, realistically, too big – and they’d still need Brisbane to lose in that scenario.
They’d need to beat the Suns by about 200 points and have the Dogs lose to Port by about 100 for top four to be on the cards – it ain’t happening.
42 points (10-10-1), 98.9% | vs Carlton (A)
The Giants control their own finals destiny and could set up an intriguing crosstown derby in the first week of the finals if they get up.
Because of their draw with North Melbourne, they’re a half-game ahead of the chasing pack – which makes their scenarios simple and free of percentages being a factor.
A win over Carlton, who should be fighting for David Teague’s future, guarantees them September action and seventh place. They cannot rise any higher.
If they lose, however, then only one of Essendon, West Coast or Fremantle can win for them to stay safe.
If all three of those sides lose, then they hold onto their finals spot despite losing. If one of those sides wins – only one – that team rises to seventh and the Giants fall to eighth.
But if a second or third side gets up, their finals dream is over.
40 points (10-11), 107.2% | vs Collingwood (H)
One of the surprise packets of the season, Essendon are in the box seat to return to the finals.
All they need to do is defeat Collingwood and they’re in. Even if they win by one point, West Coast would need to beat Brisbane 200-0 to make up the percentage gap.
If the Giants lose, the Bombers can move up to seventh, but a win and eighth place will be good enough.
Even if they lose, Essendon’s finals dream may not be over.
Because of their superior percentage, the Bombers would still make the eight with a loss, provided West Coast lose to Brisbane and Fremantle lose to St Kilda (both away).
40 points (10-11), 94.9% | vs Brisbane Lions (A)
That derby loss is set to cost West Coast very, very dearly.
Of the three teams on 40 points, they have the hardest Round 23 match by far and even pulling off the upset over the Lions doesn’t guarantee them a finals spot – they need Collingwood to upset Essendon or Carlton to upset the Giants as well.
If the Eagles lose, that’s their season done.
I would like to take this opportunity to remind people I tipped West Coast to miss the finals before the season began and copped a bit in the comments for it. Apologies accepted.
40 points (10-11), 89% | vs St Kilda (A)
Fremantle have given themselves something of a sniff thanks to their superb win in Sunday’s derby, but they need a lot to go their way to break a five-year finals drought.
Defeating St Kilda – away from home – will give them the magic 44-point tally, but their poor percentage means they’ll be relying on other teams above them losing.
If the Giants win, they need both Essendon and West Coast to lose. However, if the Giants lose, then they only need one of Essendon or West Coast to lose and they’ll pinch their place with a win.
If they lose, however, they likely tumble to a disappointing 12th – which would not fairly reflect their season.
36 points (9-12), 97.8% | vs Hawthorn (H)
All good things come to and end, but it’s been an enormous surprise to see Richmond’s dynasty crash and burn like it has.
The Tigers are technically not out of it. If they absolutely belt Hawthorn (no guarantee in Alastair Clarkson’s last game), Essendon get absolutely belted by Collingwood (hmm), West Coast lose to Brisbane and Fremantle lose to St Kilda, then the Tigers will have a miraculous climb to the finals to match their Cinderalla run in 2014.
However, if Richmond do beat Hawthorn (by a normal margin), and both West Coast and Fremantle do lose, then the Tigers will do something even more unthinkable; finish ninth.
36 points (9-12), 88% | vs Fremantle (H)
St Kilda will play finals football with they defeat Fremantle by 120 points and Essendon lose to Collingwood by 180 points.
The best they can realistically hope for is to leapfrog Freo into tenth place, provided Richmond go down to Hawthorn.
32 points (8-13), 88.7% | vs GWS Giants (H)
An upset win over Greater Western Sydney would likely propel the Blues to 11th, given the loser of the St Kilda-Fremantle game will go beneath them, but remaining in 13th or dropping to 14th is the most likely outcome.
30 points (7-13-1), 84.5% | vs Richmond (A)
Hawthorn are finishing off Alastair Clarkson’s final year in some style and could really send him off with a bang if they upset Richmond.
That would lift them to 13th, presuming Carlton lose to the Giants, while a drop to the bottom four could occur if they lose and the Suns upset Sydney.
28 points (7-14), 80% | vs Sydney Swans (A)
Gold Coast are, incredulously, having their best season since 2014 and could win eight games for the third time in club history if they knock off the Swans.
They did defeat Sydney by 40 points earlier this season, so they have the form, but it’d be some surprise to see them do it again.
A win could see them lift to 14th which, sadly, would be the equal second-highest finish in club history, while a loss coupled with a Collingwood win would consign them to 16th.
24 points (6-15), 87% | vs Essendon (A)
Collingwood can rise to 15th with a win over Essendon and a Gold Coast loss to Sydney. They will fall to 17th if they lose and Adelaide defeat North Melbourne.
24 points (6-15), 79.2% | vs North Melbourne (H)
Adelaide cannot win the wooden spoon but can at least move one place up the ladder with a win and a Collingwood loss.
18 points (4-16-1), 71% | vs Adelaide Crows (A)
Nothing can save North Melbourne from the wooden spoon, unfortunately. A win, however, would give them five wins and a draw, which would make them the ‘best’ wooden spoon team since the Brisbane Lions in 1998. They went okay from there.
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