Opinion
Racing heads south again this Saturday, with the Sydney meeting again transferred to Kembla Grange, where we’re greeting by a tricky day not helped by the big wet early in the week.
My initial form was done thinking heavy territory was likely. With the recent sunshine I’m optimistic of a slow six or so, which would be a fair result for most runners.
The big card is headlined by some initial three-year-old black type and a Group 3 staying race, with some mid-level stuff sprinkled across the rest of the day. Like last week, I’m hoping to get in front early. Let’s see if I can cash in and have a big day.
Dixie’s 2021 tally
Outlay: 348 units
Return: 429.70 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – 9 The Storm in Me (two units)
Looking to back up last week’s (rare) success in the Highway, I mark 9. The Storm in Me as having a bit on this lot. This filly opened at double figures (gobbled up), and is now hard in the market, particularly with the scratching of the top weight. She’s won on good and heavy going, so no nail-biting moments overnight. I liked 12. Kelvedon Road – also backed – and 10. Emma’s Gift as next best.
Race 2 – 4 Lord Zoulander (one unit)
I landed on perennial Midway runner 4. Lord Zoulander, who was more favoured in the slop but gets in well here and soft track form is okay. There doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of speed so he should be handy and drop in. For you long-shot lovers, 10. Either Oar is trained at the track and ran well fresh with a big weight. 6. Royalzel is a stablemate of the good Lord. He comes off a listed win in Melbourne. I’m happy to risk him at even money considering he’s stepping back from a mile.
Race 3 – 10 Centimental (one unit)
10. Centimental has been in good form lately with a win and second from her last two. She takes a step up here but can measure up. James McDonald/Chris Waller is a tick, and the super coach may have something in the locker for this filly considering her progression through the grades. My old buddy 5. Steel Diamond was excellent last time. She returns to her best track but is punished again with an extra kilo. 12. Pensato didn’t get much luck last time in this grade and still wasn’t far off.
Race 4 – 15 Sepulchre (one unit)
I am getting frisky and taking 15. Sepulchre at $30-plus. She’s been good this preparation, particularly in her last two at 2000 metres, where she broke her heavy track duck and then just off them in lower grade. She’s not winning a Cox Plate, but she’s in here carrying 50 kilos and might give a sight. 7. Off Shaw is in well with Tom Sherry’s apprentice claim. They’ll be chasing him. 2. Mankayan has his second Australian run after a good debut, short enough but promising.
Race 5 – 3 Arnaqueur (one unit)
Team Dubois made the right move taking this colt out of the Highway and running here. 3. Arnaqueur is well suited here at Group 3 level, particularly getting out past 1200 and 1300 metres. He was seventh in the Champagne as a two-year-old and won at this trip first up, beating some donkeys but coming from last. 2. Coastwatch has form at this level and should go well (McDonald/Waller), while 9. Yulong Turbo ran about all over the place in his two-year-old runs but had some gas when he let down.
Race 6 – 4 Paulele (one unit)
4. Paulele was fantastic fresh at listed level. She stays at 1100 metres here and is in well. She’s the real deal. 1. Stay Inside is the Slipper winner and is the champ. They need to topple him. 3. Sword of State comes across from NZ with a big Group 1 win and might be another to go for the title. Good race.
Race 7 – 5 Inverloch (one unit)
This race is a great betting preposition. 5. Inverloch is worth a punt at double figures. This sort of race is right in his sort of alley. He’ll lead and take running down. 2. Dashing Willoughby needs to race to his UK form before I look at him. I’m most worried about 12. Harpo Marx. That horse rates really well but loves hard ground.
Race 8 – 7 Tycoonist (one unit)
This is a tight race. 7. Tycoonist levels up with the lovely weight drop – McDonald/Waller again. I have 3/5/10/11 in betting and quad discussions.
Race 9 – 13 Duchess (one unit)
I landed on 13. Duchess. Her win last start was very good and my fave Tim Clark can dominate here from a forward spot. 15. Battleground is up to this grade but has drawn the car park. 6. Andermatt is a gun and a risk if he’s primed first up.
Race 10 – 17 Toomuchtobear (three units)
My sums just see 17. Toomuchtobear being a great bet here. He’s won two on the trot in easy grade, drops weight and draws perfectly to lead, kick and win. 18. Wild Chap is always in exotics, 15. Hot Spring Gold rates well and 13. Yiyi is a potential star that could be going places.
Good luck and good punting. Please keep me posted on where your plays are, and thanks for the banter last week.
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