Back to Randwick this Saturday for a big spring lead-in meet featuring the Chelmsford Stakes over the famous mile and the Concorde dash for some Everest hopefuls.
With some big and even fields across the card, there’s some good value options throughout the day.
Dixie’s 2021 tally
Outlay: 360 units
Return: 429.70 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – 2 Parksville (one unit)
It looks like Brett Dodson has found a good one with 2. Parksville, who he’s brought to Sydney in the hope of gaining a spot in the Kosciuszko. His three wins on the far north coast have all been dominant and his midweek third on the Kenso first-up sets him nicely here. 9. Ten Bells did the job for us last time, has drawn the (empty) car park here but runs around at double-figure odds again and is talented. 4. Tara Jasmine is looking towards bigger races as well.
Race 2 – 5 Nags to Riches (two units)
5. Nags to Riches is nicely placed here back against her own sex, and gets in even better with Tom Sherry’s weight claim. Back to 1100 metres, she’s hard to beat. I had 9. The Neon Knight as a better chance than her as the current price of 14/1 suggests. She’s drawn the inside and will appreciate any give in the ground. 8. Patino Ruby is my third pick. This horse might want more than 1100 but is a nice type.
Race 3 – 10 Savvy Crown (one unit)
Onto a very tricky Midway, yes I backed 10. Savvy Crown when a close-up third at any old price a few starts back. She should be better suited here stepping out to 1800 metres and has Sherry’s weight drop too. Yes, Tom Sherry for the race-to-race double. Another one of mine is 9. Wild Chap, who was in that wild finish in the last race last week. He deserves a win (although if I was to talk through my quaddie I wish it was last week).
Race 4 – 10 Starman (one unit)
Team Waller finds a good race for 10. Starman, who won well from a tricky spot on debut and looks set to push through the grades. 7. Construct was hardest to best. He’s generally around the mark and being close behind Tiger of Malay is nice form for this. 5. Hot Spring Gold and 4. Super Effort (Jay Ford – tick) are both going well but I’ll leave out due to their weight rises.
Race 5 – 1/4 Quinella (one unit)
Do I think 1. Nature Strip beats this lot? Yes. But am I here to tip runners at $1.50? Decidedly not. 4. Standout was in Everest discussions last year and was second in the consolation race. He’s never raced over 1000 metres, but his gut-buster trial suggests they’ve put some work into him. He’s the right price at near 20/1 to add value to the quinella.
Race 6 – 12 De An Andretti (one unit)
I am backing another debut winner backing up with the Ron Quinton-trained 12. De An Andretti. Her win was fantastic at Hawkesbury. She missed the kick there, went around them on the turn and was strongest across the line in quick time. The Libertini bloodlines are right up my alley too. There was $5 offered on the Slipper winner 1. Four Moves Ahead. She lost the title last start but won’t be that price again if she makes amends here. 8. Joyous Legend (daughter of More Joyous) is over the odds and 4. She’s All Class bolted in first up last prep in a Wyong Magic Millions race, the real deal.
Race 7 – 6 Rock (one unit)
Yep, 1. Zaaki probably grabs this, but in red odds I’m going around him and see 6. Rock as the play. Second up is his thing, he did enough fresh when trapped last on the inside and will like the conditions. 2. Dreamforce is a chance but not getting any younger, and goes better on a hard track (second-up numbers are A-1).
Race 8 – 2 Cascadian (two units)
Shout out to our regular commenter Chris, who had 2. Cascadian fresh in the Winx, where he probably wins if he didn’t get smashed when revving up in the straight. The price is gone now and no-one’s missed him, he should go well and be closer from the good draw. 1. Think It Over was tightened for much of the way in the same race and is a good show. 13. She’s Ideel beat them both last time and has come back well. Of the rest, I’m keen to see the Hungarian import 3. Nancho. He hasn’t run in almost two years but is a Group 1 winner in Germany.
Race 9 – 13 King of Sparta (one unit)
13. King of Sparta steps up to open grade after winning well last time against three- and four-year-olds in track record time. The negative here is the alley, maybe James McDonald goes forward and sits three or four pairs back? Staying at 1200 is great. 10. Fastconi rated well, red pen last start where he was boxed, before that he was flying. 9. A Magic Zariz has four second placings in a row, he’ll be in the first few without pressure at around 100/1. He has great soft track stats. 17. Saquon is the other possible leader. That horse might need further but has Glen Boss onboard.
Race 10 – 12 New Arrangement (one unit)
It is another big field to end a tricky quaddie. For me it’s all about the weight swings against the favourite 13. Atishu. 12. New Arrangement meets the fave six kilos to the good from their clash last time (3.5 lengths), he had way too much to do there but ran home in a race fastest last 600. 11. Matowatakpe was closer (1.2 lengths) but only has a comparatively small 2.5-kilogram swing. Atishu? Goes in everything, can go on with it but is short in a very big field with a wide gate. Of the others, 5. All Time Legend rates well, he’s been all around it at short prices and finds his level with a weight advantage from Jean Van Overmeire’s claim. Oh and 16. Bigboyroy is another one. My head hurts.
Good luck one and all, enjoy the big day wherever you are. It looks like a cracking day at the Valley as well. If pushed, I’d say my best there is in the Feehan, Race 8 – 12 Sovereign Award, who might get a soft lead and will like the going. Odds of 40/1 into 20/1 are a good sign.
Thankfully, if all goes awry, Sha Tin restarts on Sunday.