Two meetings to look at on Thurday, with Charlton and Redcliffe getting my focus. Down below are my best bets for the respective programs.
Racing heads south again to Kembla for the Run to the Roses meeting.
It looks like a competitive day with some black type for the three-year-olds and the Theo Marks, which will move from Rosehill for only the second time since 1946.
It’s been a bit dark for me recently. I thought I’d reset the clock from the horse’s birthday for a refresh and a challenge, seeing if I can flip it the other way over the carnival. What could possibly go wrong?
A few notes about Kembla. I’m always wary of their local trainers (such as Gwenda Markwell, Mick Price, Theresa Bateup) when they race these guys at home. Monegal was one last year on the Gong day. They’re generally raring to go.
The other thing is that the track played very fast a fortnight ago, it’s firm and true, so with 28 degrees expected, look for horses that prefer that sort of surface.
Dixie’s 2021-22 season tally (from August 1)
Outlay: 42 units
Return: 18.8 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – 5 Blaazay (one unit)
Current price: $12
There are scratchings galore in this week’s Highway, which might alleviate some of the pressure from wide. I’m going to dabble on Glen Boss and 5. Blaazay. He hasn’t been beating much at home at Moruya but he’s done it well and carrying weight, he gets nicely done to 56.5 kilos for this. 1. Rari has solid Brisbane metro form and 15. Princess De Roca (also up from Moruya) has won her last two.
Race 2 – 1 Mankayan (one unit)
Current price: $2.20
This horse is short enough for me, but big 1. Mankayan has a bit on this mob and the extra distance is right up his alley. His UK stuff was all leaning towards 2400 metres, he gets to that now and gets his chance. I am most wary of 8. Deadly Impact right down in weight from midweek provincial placings. 4. Torrens won well at a price last start and 7. Accountability went back to the midweeks, got his soft kill and is back on my radar.
Race 3 – 13 Toomuchtobear (one unit)
Current price: $7.50
Chris Waller looks to have his mitts all over this. I know I was stung last time on 13. Toomuchtobear, but he missed the kick there meaning he was much too far back to challenge. He gets extra trip now out to 2000 metres and can make it up to me. 4. Crystal Pegasus has the distance and dry track form, he’ll run well. After that we head to 9. Yiyi in the Rabbitohs colours (tick), 11. Bazooka and 8. Stuck With You.
Race 4 – 14 Kimberley Rain (one unit)
Current price: $34
14. Kimberley Rain needs a scratching to run. I’m happy to dabble if she gets in. She raced the favourite 6. Cobia two starts back and gets a two-kilo swing on that with Brock Ryan’s claim for a length margin. She was wide all the way there and had to work from the 600. Since then she had the kill at Nowra, and she’s trained by Team Price at the track. Next up 9. Either Oar is around the mark again, and was good last time in this grade.
Race 5 – 10 Alegron (one unit)
Current odds: $14
After running at the big end of town in Melbourne over autumn, 10. Alegron gobbled up a few donkeys fresh at Newcastle to break his maiden. He did it well and I’m tipping him to go on from here up in trip. 11. Hinged was rating okay but has had a mishap and I’ll see how she is before plunging in. 1. Tiger of Malay has class and should be in the mix.
Race 6 – 4 Entriviere (two units)
Current price: $2.35
The mark-ups of four-from-five at 1200 metres and two-from-four on good going make 4. Entrivieire a good thing in the Sheraco. She was great in her Australian debut over the autumn carnival, she has had a hiccup this time in but she’s trialled and everything seems in order. This horse is beautifully weighted in this. 1. Forbidden Love got way back when fresh and is likely looking for further. She’ll go well. There’s noise around for 9. Marboosha, while I have 7. Seasons in with a show if he can get back to his form from earlier this year.
Race 7 – 10 Big Parade (three units)
Current price: $2.80
I am very keen on 10. Big Parade in the Theo Marks. He broke the track record here last time (subsequently topped later in the day) and bolted in. The race tempo looks to be okay, Tim Clark jumps on (gun on leaders) and he’s right down in weight. There is a knock that he can’t put two together, but he’s back as a gelding and seemed to be a bit more relaxed prior to his fresh win. 6. Private Eye was amazing fresh. I’m wary he’ll be too far back here if Big Parade can roll along and dictate. 3. Roheryn is five-from-five fresh (wow) and at double figures is making me nervous. 7. Chat is next best.
Race 8 – 5 Home Affairs (one unit)
Current price: $14
This is a very tricky three-year-old race. I backed 5. Home Affairs in the Slipper. He’s a ripping horse and could be in for a massive prep for Coolmore. 2. Anamoe is a beast. He’s short enough considering his slight setback in this prep. He might want further as well (Cox Plate bound?). 1. Stay Inside is the Slipper winner and must be respected.
Race 9 – 8 Count De Rupee (one unit)
Current price: $3.90
I am hoping we’re counting the rupees after this one. Ryan/Price again bring the local connection with 8. Count De Rupee. He was really good in his last prep, earning himself a run at Group 3 level in Brisbane. Kembla/1200/dry are all ticks, and this horse should run well. The Kris Lees pair 6. Ventura Ocean and 5. Never Talk both rate well.
Race 10 – 9 Brookspire (one unit)
Current price: $4.60
Hugh Bowman will be back in Dixie’s good jockey book if he can get 9. Brookspire across the line in the last from barrier 15. Woof! I have to be with her. She was great first-up, putting away some midweekers and will get better the further she goes. Another Waller stranglehold looks likely. 7. Loveplanet has James McDonald on and should be in a lovely spot. 8. Wairere Falls had too much to do last time and should settle closer. 6. Kingsheir is flying and goes in again, and don’t leave out 10. Monegal!
Race 6 – 4 Entriviere
Race 7 – 10 Big Parade
Race 2 – 1 Artorius
Race 5 – 2 Ayrton
Good luck all. I am happy to hear us Sydneysiders might be back on track (or at the pub) reasonably soon. Enjoy the massive day.
What will Incentivise do in the Makybe Diva? Wow. I’m running scared a little but will likely dabble on the Japanese import Keiai Nautique, who was superb in the Winx.