There are two meetings to look at on Sunday, with Marburg and Devonport getting my focus.
Best bet – Race 1, No. 3: Dreamouts Niece
His overall record is nothing flash, but gee this race is very much thin, and with gate speed he’ll find the front and take a power of beating. He was at big odds when racing here last time out and was good late when third. He gets a great chance to win the second race of his career.
Next best bet – Race 2, No. 1: Duke
John McMullen has a good record at Marburg, and this horse will continue that trend. He was dragged back from a wide gate when racing here last start, and he was good in defeat after getting intro a tricky spot. He’s drawn the pole and should hold the lead and prove hard to get past.
Value bet – Race 6, No. 6: Circle Line
He’ll follow out a fast beginner, so if he were able to land leaders back, he would be in with a shout at odds. Had the 1/1 sit when racing here last time out and battled on pretty well when fourth. He should get a soft run on the pegs, and if the breaks go his way, he can take this out at a price.
Best bet – Race 3, No. 4: Watchmylips
He’s a talented four-year-old that was impressive at his Tassie debut in Hobart, and though Devonport can be a tricky track, if he handles it, he wins. That first run for the new camp at Hobart saw him bolt up and he was sharp in solid time. Just has to handle Devonport to be winning.
Next best bet – Race 4, No. 10: Blame It On Me
She’s a high-quality mare similar to the best bet. She just has to handle Devonport, and her class edge will see her bolt in from there. She resumed in a strong FFA and just lacked the race fitness when third. She’s drawn outside the second row, but she has class, and that alone should get her home.
Value bet – Race 1, No. 7: Somehowsomeway
He’ll need things to fall into place, but if the one does hold the inside and the lead, this guy will land leaders back and be dangerous at likely double-figure odds. He hasn’t had much luck with gates in recent times, but he’s drawn to do no work here and be a threat with an ounce of luck.