Off to the wild, windy and wet West at Rosehill this week for an unseasonal heavy track. Just another variable to consider, I’d be looking to favour horses on speed, particularly early in the program.
Breathe in that carnival air peeps, a massive day of A1 quality awaits at both Randwick and Caulfield, headed by the George Main up here and Rupert Clarke down there.
I’ve renamed George Main Stakes day ‘Dixie’s super yankee Saturday’ after the day of all days last year. I’ll be watching closely and going hard to back that up, likely from whatever picnic I’ve been wedged into.
Dixie’s 2021-22 season tally (from August 1)
Outlay: 54 units
Return: 32.40 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – 13 Satin Ruby (one unit)
Current price: $61
I am having a throw at the stumps on 13. Satin Ruby. She missed the kick fresh at Scone (no trials) and ran on well enough – 33.5 last 600 – to suggest she can do something here. This horse stays at 1000 metres. Hopefully this ex-Anthony Cummings horse can start with them and take advantage of Ellen Hennessy’s weight claim. The fave 11. Nadaraja bolted in at the same Scone meeting last time. I’m gutted it looks like 7. Emeriz is scratched to run on Monday. No jockey notified as of Friday morning isn’t a good sign. He was right in it at massive odds too. 2. Leo bobs up every now and then.
Race 2 – 8 Kordia (one unit)
Current odds: $4.20
The scratching of 2. Atishu opens this race right up. I’m going with the favourite 8. Kordia. He beat the spruiked Yiyi last time giving him weight. If he backs that up he goes close. 5. Kiss The Bride rates next best. This horse was a length off Kordia last time and will like the extra trip. 7. Cisco Bay is generally in the money in this sort of grade, particularly if the track is soft.
Race 3 – 2 Foxborough (one unit)
Current price: $11
2. Foxborough was good in Midway grade two starts ago. She gets Tom Sherry’s apprentice claim here and is generally around the mark at the Randwick mile. 1. Above and Beyond and 6. Tampering were next best, and I’m interested in 9. Big Surprise’s trip to town. He’s running well but may set up a great tempo with Tampering that suits my girl.
Race 4 – 16 Hot Spring Gold (two units)
Current odds: $11
I have 16. Hot Spring Gold as a great bet at double-figure odds. He won arrogantly two starts ago before a freshen and a solid third back to 1300 metres a fortnight back. He gives most of them a good start but will be motoring home. 10. Suave is a worry for me. James McDonald jumps on first up for a year at 1400 metres. Is there something I don’t know? 9. Super Effort beat Hot Spring Gold last time. He’s in a great form but disadvantaged against HSG at the weights.
Race 5 – 12 Harmony Rose (one unit)
Current odds: $3.80
This is a good little race here that seems to be between the three favourites. I’ll be with 12. Harmony Rose if the track stays in the slow range (two from two). She’s also two from two at 1400 metres and two from two first up. It’s still tough to separate her from 11. Atishu, who gave a weak excuse last time but was still excellent, and was amazing on Australian debut. Stats are ticked everywhere too. 5. Private Eye? Way too far back last week. Joe Pride backs him up and throws blinkers on, yes and yes. He’ll be coming at them, but will have to catch my girl.
Race 6 – 1 Four Moves Ahead (one unit)
Current odds: $4.20
At set weights for the fillies, I’m going to stick with the top-end two-year-olds one last time, with 1. Four Moves Ahead top of the list. If she fails here I’m off. 3. She’s All Class and 4. Mallory look like the most likely challengers out of a pretty ordinary crop. If you’ve seen something I haven’t, let me know.
Race 7 – 2 Think It Over (one unit)
Current odds: $4.60
Take 7. Verry Elleegant as the very short way home. I’ll go with 2. Think It Over at slightly better odds. He’s now won two Randwick WFA Group 1s, so is in the same conversation as the great mare and even 1. Kolding. He’s a serious racehorse, and despite being in a sticky spot was only .4 of a length from VE first-up in the Winx. 3. Cascadian can bob up. 5. Riodini was great last time and 9. Hungry Heart is a potential superstar. This is a big contest. I am looking forward to it.
Race 8 – 4 Masked Crusader (one unit)
Current odds: $5
If I was excited about the George Ryder, I’m jumping out of trees to see this – what a race! There are Everest contenders galore. Where to look? I’ve landed with 4. Masked Crusader. He was special fresh coming from last at the Valley. I said he’ll have to be Chautauqua to win from there, and by the time I’d finished he’d rounded them up. It was something. This is a step up though.
1. Nature Strip is always the real deal and can stamp himself as Everest fave here with a win. 2. Eduardo and 3. Gytrash are both superstars who have lowered Nature Strips colours before. 5. Rothfire? The fastest trial ever seen in the history of the world or something? That would be some recovery considering his injury. 7. Lost and Running can run time as well and is a genuine contender.
There’s so many bulls here with speed, letting them bash each other might be the way to go. Who knows? Enjoy.
Race 9 – 18 Zeyrek (one unit)
Current odds: $21
Dashing Willoughby running at Newcastle means 18. Zeyrek will start. He’s been backed from 50/1 into 20s, and I’m hopping on. This horse was great fresh in the worst part of the track after the rain came, poking his head up before others with a fitness edge came wide. He’ll have come to hand since, should get a nice spot (Jay Ford on) from barrier one and be in the finish. Two thousand metres is perfect right now. At around $12 7. Best Of Days is overs. A head off an Australian Cup win is good for this. 14. She’s Ideel was a beast first up. She was slightly disappointing next time and I’m going to risk her. That or her Tancred run in the autumn win here.
Race 10 – 5 Lord Olympus (one unit)
They don’t call it the lucky last for nothing. Try sorting these out, boy oh boy. I’m leaning towards 5. Lord Olympus, who should be running on well considering the likely speed battle up front. He was always running in black type races as a junior so benchmark level suits. 12. Equation is a ripper. He went through his grades beautifully last prep. Six months into this and no trial? I’ll risk thinking he’s headed for something bigger at 1400 or a mile. 7. Exoboom rates well and had a hard trial but 1100 metres might be too short. 18. Hulk will win a race like this, probably not from the horrible draw though.
Race 6 – 3 Annavisto (two units)
Current odds: $2.10
3. Annavisto has had the form franked since finishing second to Turaath. She now gets to her pet 1400-metre trip and should go close.
Race 7 – 7 Chapada (one unit)
Current odds: $23
7. Chapada’s Autumn third when second up in the Australian Cup put him in the mix here. He should be in the right spot to challenge when it gets serious.
Race 8 – 7 Sierra Sue (one unit)
Current odds: $13
I am sticking with 7. Sierra Sue at a nice price. She was unlucky at the Valley after a quality win and is beautifully weighted here. 16. Poland is a worry with no weight on his back. 2. Probabeel is all class and one of my favourites. She goes to the top of the class if she can win giving this lot weight. This is a great race.
Good luck all and stay safe. What a day!