After a solid result last week, Sydney racing takes a dip behind an exceptional Moonee Valley card.
Racing returns to Randwick this week for a good card featuring the Spring Champion Stakes for three-year-olds over 2000 metres.
It’s a tricky (value) day with some cracking races to keep us busy on Guineas day at Caulfield, we can jag a couple and chase the bunny with my annual tally.
Dixie’s 2021-22 season tally (from August 1)
Outlay: 101 units
Return: 88.40 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – 16 Chewie Two (one unit)
Current odds: $10
I’ve found a bit of value in the Highway with 16. Chewie Two down near the bottom. This horse seems to need a few runs to be at his best, is third-up here and drawn nicely. He’s competitive. If backmarkers were better suited 18. Lord Desanimaux would be hitting the line. It is good to see Jay Ford back. After COVID cost him the ride on the Epsom winner, 15. Laughing or Crying is probably apt.
Race 2 – 4 Big Surprise (one unit)
Current odds: $12
4. Big Surprise has double its price from the opening $6. He’s right in it and I am happy to snap up double figures. This horse will likely lead, has drawn the inside and gets weight relief via Brock Ryan’s claim. They are all ticks. 6. Noble Soldier is another that rates well at odds, 10. Different Strokes bolted in at Wyong and could keep going, 12. Akhtar has been the plunge horse.
Race 3 – 7 Solar Apex (one unit)
Current odds: $3.90
Two from two this prep, 7. Solar Apex can continue pushing through the grades up to 2000 metres here. James McDonald has jumped on for two Gosford wins and stuck with him. That ticks all the boxes. I would be sticking with the ones at the top of the order after that. A few of these are trying the trip for the first time.
Race 4 – 2 Coastwatch (two units)
Current odds: $2
Expect McDonald and Chris Waller to be in the thick of things around beer o’clock. 2. Coastwatch is running well. His third in the Golden Rose was good and he should break through here. 1. Captivant hasn’t been at his best this time in (Snowden?), but should be respected a winner of a Group 1 mile race as a two-year-old. This is his hitting zone.
Race 5 – 2 Paulele (one unit)
Current odds: $2.20
Yes, ‘J-Mac’ again! Best horse again too. 2. Paulele broke 1.02 for 1100 fresh, that’s flying, and he was pretty solid last time behind Home Affairs, who had all the favours. The risks are 1. Sword of State who also had to work hard at Rosehill and will be fitter and 3. O’President, who is fresh and won a black type race before spelling.
Race 6 – 9 Mirra Vision (one unit)
Current odds: $5
Hmmm, who leads here? There is not much pace around. This could favour 9. Mirra Vision, both in terms of making it a soft mile and by being forward in the run (maybe outside the leader). She’s fit and running well. 8. Grace and Harmony is hampered by the possible lack of tempo, but she will be better after a run back.
Race 7 – 4 Amish Boy (one unit)
Current odds: $6.50
I am looking for some James McDonald magic here from an outside draw, but 4. Amish Boy looked pretty clearly the main group-type of runner, against a lot of mid-high grade types enticed by the Peter V’landys dollars. He’ll run a strong 1300 and has been solid this preparation in Melbourne without luck. It is a funny one. Maybe the mare 14. Vangelic can lead and kick like last time. Tim Clark/Gai Waterhouse/lead is always a major plus and she’ll be rock-hard fit.
Race 8 – 3 Alegron (one unit)
Current odds: $9
I am happy to go around the favourites and bank on 3. Alegron. He went around with the two favourites last time but was in the wrong part of the track and should get favours this time from gate 2. 1. Head of State is a good horse who loos suited at 2000 metres, and 2. Profondo has only had two starts, where both times he has shown untapped potential but run around all over the place. If he blitzes them here, the Cox Plate conversation starts. Who knows?
Race 9 – 13 Electric Girl (one unit)
Current odds: $31
This is a tricky sprint for the mares. The play is 13. Electric Girl. She was good winning in midweek grade and gets a lovely weight drop into this. There’s no superstars here, although Athiri once threatened. 12. Belucci Babe is another taking on black type racing and is also well placed down in weight. 1. Sweet Deal is the class horse and is favoured by the hard track.
Race 10 – 11. Battleground (one unit)
Current odds: $14
I’ve either got my Highway form right here or dreadfully wrong (we’ll know soon enough, I guess), my ratings had 11. Battleground as the one to beat. He got absolutely poleaxed last start behind 10. Leo, denying him any chance to be in the finish, but he still fought on okay. Leo will lead from a nice draw and will be underestimated by the market again, 6. Just Field has been freshened and can be in it if she jumps well, while everyone’s talking about 3. On The Lead. If Belucci Babe wins it might be worth jumping on.
Race 4 – 12 Shihonka (two units)
Current odds: $4.40
This horse follows similar form lines to Kallos, who went down to Melbourne after flying at Sydney provincials and got the chocolates. His win at Wyong was a ripper, running sub 63 seconds for 1100 under a massive hold. Flyer.
Race 9 – 13 Second Slip (one unit)
Current odds: $15
This boy is overs, he’s flying at lower levels and comes into this with a cracking draw and no weight. The favourite is very hard to top. There is the potential for him to get stuck in traffic like last time, which has me leaning towards a go-forward horse at a price.
Race 10 – 7 Floating Artist (one unit)
Current odds: $2.90
We were with Floating Artist last start and he belted them. This is a step up but he’s flying and will go close.
And yes – Zaaki wins!
Good luck. It is another massive day as we lead into the Everest and Caulfield Cup. Enjoy the last day from the couch for the foreseeable future!