Opinion
Everest time! The big boys are in town, the rain is pouring in and crowds are back. It’s great to be alive.
We obviously have the Caulfield Cup downstairs to focus on as well, and it shapes as a ripper with a potential champion as favourite from an outside draw on an unknown surface without the flip-flopping around international first-uppers.
Dixie’s 2021-22 season tally (from August 1)
Outlay: 115 units
Return: 96.50 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
The Everest: Randwick Race 7 – 1 Nature Strip (two units)
Current odds: $3.70
It is a great edition of the Everest, with Classique Legend taking it on first up, Masked Crusader’s good win in the preview, the three-year-old Home Affairs having a crack and Singapore import The Inferno adding intrigue.
I’m pretty bullish about 1. Nature Strip. He seems to get a lot of favours from the draw with the potential to stalk Eduardo, negating the costly F1 speed that was his downfall last year. To me it looks and smells like the TJ Smith in the autumn. Nature Strip shapes to be just as dominant here.
Classique would be an unbelievable achievement. I’m just wary that while he might be getting towards 100 per cent, the extra bit of work required on a possible heavy surface is a greater risk. Same Eduardo. Libertini is hurt by the slop but I’m always scared. She ran 1.07.6 first up leading into last year’s race. That’s off the hook.
Caulfield Cup: Caulfield Race 9 – 16 Nonconformist (one unit)
Current odds: $12
An hour after the Everest, we head south for a bottler of a Caulfield Cup, led by a potential star and a series of local challengers.
No knock 2. Incentivise, he’s been extraordinary in both Melbourne wins. It seems he goes forward, runs flat out and finds when challenged. He should be okay in wet ground too. In a big field from the outside gate, I have to look for value, and 16. Nonconformist ticks the box carrying 51.5 kilos.
He beat 10. Delphi two back before getting past Zaaki (what happened) last time and just going down to Probabeel in the lead-up giving the mare weight. He’s ready and a good bet at double figures. I am looking at exotics including other runners like 8. Quick Thinker, 10. Delphi and 17. Duais.
Race 1 – 7 Zoushack (one unit)
Current odds: $3.90
I am kicking off the big day with 7. Zoushack. He should have his own way in front. Nash Rawiller is the right man for the job and the horse is three from six on slow going. There are some interesting runners here. 10. Grand Rock had James McDonald on in a very easy second trial and is first up since heading over from the UK. 6. New King has won at this level before and has a win on heavy ground.
Race 2 – 5 Kiss the Bride (one unit)
Current odds: $8.50
5. Kiss the Bride was very impressive winning two starts back when he could do his own thing in front and keep going. Last start was a different story, it’s a forgive job. There’s a few go-forward types here but he’ll be able to get his spot and should be strong. The surface is no problem. I am most scared of 8. New Arrangement. He gets in with a feather weight and has form around Atishu and Mirra Vision.
(Photo by Olga Gasheva via Unsplash)
Race 3 – 16 Boss Lady Rocks (one unit)
Current odds: $12
Lightly raced 16. Boss Lady Rocks comes to town on the back of a couple of big wins at Albury. She’s up to 1100 metres here but is another go-forward type that looks ready to go. 2. Ahead Start was good at this level and should be okay in the conditions.
Race 4 – 1 Decent Raine (one unit)
Current odds: $6
I am happy to be with 1. Decent Raine in the fillies race. She romped in on a bog track at Echuca first up and was a length off in Group 3 grade last time. That’s better racing that the rest of these, although there’s no doubt 5. Fangirl looked like a good one winning her maiden last time and there are bigger plans for her.
Race 5 – 9 Island Bay Boy (one unit)
Current odds: $23
Make it rain! 9. Island Bay Boy was strong in heavy going winning his lead-in at Queanbeyan. He won’t win an Everest but he’s a winner, he’ll peak now and is drawn well considering the likely state of the track. 1. Handle the Truth is undoubtedly the best horse in the race but could find a tricky spot from the inside draw. 13/14 will be in my exotics.
(Photo by Violeta Pencheva via Unsplash)
Race 6 – 5 Big Parade (one unit)
Current odds: $3.40
I am sticking with 5. Big Parade after he did the job (or Gravina got too far back) last time. He settled better there so maybe he’ll be able to put two together? That’s been the knock recently. I am wary of 2. Signore Fox, who was great in Brisbane and has been trialling well, but is better on dry.
Race 7 – The Everest
See above.
Race 8 – 10 Sky Lab (one unit)
Current odds: $13
There’s been an early plunge on 10. Sky Lab. 20/1 and over was probably a bit silly, but I understand there’s a few of us keen to take on 1. Think it Over. Sky Lab’s best performance was at this trip 18 months again where he was nutted by Mo’unga on a slow seven. That’s good for this.
(Image by Digwen from Pixabay)
Race 9 – 14 High Emocean (two units)
Current odds: $5.50
The St Leger seems to stack up well for 14. High Emocean, who’s been good in this sort of second level and will relish the conditions. 1. Entente has been up for a while and I’m looking around him but he keeps turning up.
Race 10 – 1 Equation (one units)
Current odds: $3
Two lengths back in the Silver Eagle seems handy in a BM78 to end the day. 1. Equation is untried on heavy ground, but being four from six on soft going means he should handle it. 11. Calgary Queen is unbeaten in two goes on heavy tracks. She’ll go forward and they’ll have to get past.
It is a great day. There’s a heap of action at Caulfield too – can he do it?
Have a big one, let me know if you think Les Bridge is a genius and what your best around the place is.
I’ll send through some updates across the day with some more Melbourne numbers and maybe even a few other sneakies. Good luck!
Have you ever tried your skills in a Racing daily fantasy competition? Put your best picks to the test for one day and see if you can scoop the pot with Draftstars. Looking for great odds on racing and sport? PlayUp is your best bet. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
