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Opinion
First run in 1855, the Victorian Derby is a staying race for three-year-old horses.
It is run over 2500 metres, which often leads to it being a hard race to do the form for due to all the horses being tested over this journey for the first time.
This year the race consists only of colts and geldings, which is normally the case due to the VRC Oaks run next Thursday over the same trip being a filly-only race.
This year’s race is no exception. Last-start Moonee Valley Vase winner over 2040 metres, Forgot You, is the current favourite at $3.50.
His form is almost impeccable and most expect him to run out the endurance-testing distance of the race with no issues. He has drawn perfectly in barrier seven and looks hard to beat.
The second favourite is Gunstock, currently at $4. He was equal favourite prior to the barrier draw. When the barriers were drawn, he copped barrier 19, the second widest barrier.
Last year’s Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Jye McNeil has a task on his hands to get him an economical run in transit and be every chance to run the trip out.
If you ignore his barrier, similar to Forgot You, his form is excellent and gives no concern about the testing distance of the race I continue to mention.
There are plenty of chances outside of the favoured two runners. Hitousu hit the line very hard in the Caufield Guineas. He is bred to get this distance.
Tutukaka simply outstayed his rivals in the Geelong Classic over 2200 metres. He shouldn’t have worries with the distance and James McDonald will most likely press forward from barrier 12.
Commander Harry almost stole the race Forgot You won last weekend, making it a staying test with a bold ride from Linda Meech. She stays aboard and if she takes up similar tactics, he will give a sight at huge odds.
Cheerful Moment – an ex-WA galloper – has been around the mark in some races already mentioned in this article. He should find the line strong. He is another at huge odds I can’t discount.
But as the title says, a tip for this race is included. As I mentioned, this race is a challenging one to point to the winner but a horse at double-figure odds has caught my eye.
Alegron for the Godolphin team looks primed for this challenge. He brings a form line from Sydney of two runs behind a horse who could be a star next autumn in Profondo.
He recorded blistering late sectionals over the 1800 metres and then again over the 2000 metres and the eye reflected what the times suggest in that 2500 metres is no worries.
He has Brett Prebble on his back. He is the form jockey of this spring carnival and from barrier nine should get a lovely run midfield.
Hopefully this horse travels well into the straight and is presented with something to give. Currently $11/$3.60, he is worthy of an each-way bet.
Quickly, another horse worth a small each-way bet on at $151/$41 is El Rocko.
He has been boxing on the pace over staying trips of late and from barrier 16 you are almost guaranteed he goes forward hopefully can give a sight at huge odds.
Selections: 3-1-13-2
Suggested bets
#3 each way (0.5-unit win, 1-unit place)
#13 each way (0.1-unit win, 0.4-unit place)
#1, #2, #3, #12 boxed exacta.
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