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Opinion

Golden Eagle and Derby Day racing selections: Rosehill and Flemington tips for Saturday, October 30

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Roar Guru
29th October, 2021
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Fire up, it’s Derby Day!

There are four awesome Group 1 races to kick off the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington, and some serious coin splashed around in Sydney to keep us interested up here.

It shapes as a ripping day. I’ll be going big, trying to build some coin for the rest of the week.

Dixie’s 2021-22 season tally (from August 1)
Outlay: 147 units
Return: 120.4 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.

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Sydney racing selections

Race 1 – 5 Just Field (one unit)
Current price: $21
I am backing away from the shorties in the opener and will have a crack at 5. Just Field. She was nominated for later in the day but she’s competitive in this at 20/1. She’s a notoriously bad starter but can motor late. The inside draw and 1200 metres help.

Race 2 – 5 Solar Apex (one unit)
Current price: $3.50
I am taking 5. Solar Apex over the fave 2. Mightybeel. They’re both putting together good records. The Apex has the Saturday run from three weeks ago that may just give him the edge.

Race 3 – 11 Bean Hot (one unit)
It is no easier in the highway but 11. Bean Hot will be around the mark. He’s drawn well, will be on speed and has a nice record early in his career. 9. Brave Enough and 5. Private Agent are the main dangers.

Close up of a horse

(Image byJackieLou DL via Pixabay)

Race 4 – 20 Caesars Palace (one unit)
Current price: $51
$700,000 thrown about for a bunch of Thursday types, gee whiz! Good luck to them. It seems only right to speculate. Someone’s beaten me to it. 20. Caesars Palace won well carrying weight last time and is just too juicy a price to ignore in a tricky race. 15. Dufresne comes out of stronger racing (Bondi Stakes) than the rest while 4. Different Strokes is a rightful favourite but too short for me to entertain.

Race 5 – 6 Sky Lab (one unit)
Current price: $8
In another tricky one, I’ve landed on 6. Sky Lab with the weight pull over 2. Think It Over from their last clash at weight-for-age. It’s a four-kilo swing for under two lengths between them. He can go close. 1. Gold Trip was a scratching from last week’s Cox Plate on vet’s advice. A win here would raise some eyebrows about that justification. His Euro stuff is A-1.

Race 6 – 1 Eduardo (two units)
Current price: $4
I was looking to get funky but kept going back to 1. Eduardo. He’s had his grand final but normally just beats these sort of fields. The 1300 metres is okay. He should be able to control the speed and have some petrol left near the end. 2. Masked Crusader is the threat but I’ll tend to take him on with his pattern of giving away big head starts. I may spec on 16. Libertini, who is top drawer if she finds her best.

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A close up of a grey horse

(Photo by Olga Gasheva via Unsplash)

Race 7 – 4 Apache Chase (one unit)
Current odds: $7.50
It is Golden Eagle time for massive coin. Brisbane form has stood up (even without Incentivise) in 2021 and 4. Apache Chase can continue the trend. I’ll back Jim Byrne to go the right clip from near the front and he should be strong near the line.

Race 8 – 6 Delexo (two units)
Current odds: $3.10
6. Delexo rates on top in the sprint, he led and kicked to set the 1000 track record at Kenso last time. If he runs to that they won’t touch him. 9. Monte Ditto goes in everything at 25/1: fresh, new trainer, gelded and down in weight, look out.

Race 9 – 8 Pippali (one unit)
Current odds: $7
I narrowed this down to the favourite 5. Ma and Pa and 7. Pippali. I will take the value and go with Pippali. Her win was good two starts ago and she should have a nice tempo in this to chase hard. No knock the favourite. Nash Rawiller on a front runner is a massive tick. It is just too short for me to take.

Race 10 – 11 Promotions (one unit)
Current odds: $4.80
11. Promotions might have just found his niche. He’s sailing close to receiving the dreaded non-winner tag, but since being a bit more aggressive early he’s run well lately. This horse shapes to tag a hot speed and get the favours in the last.

Melbourne racing selections

Race 5 – 3 Tofane (three units)
Current price: $3.40
3. Tofane has been brilliant behind the best of the best this prep. She comes back to mares grade and level weights here, and has the cherry of a $1 million bonus if she wins to keep her interested. Yes from me.

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Race 6 – 3 Alegron (one unit)
Current price: $8
With 4. Gunstock drawing the rose garden, it’s time to do the old ‘Sydney is better than Melbourne’ thing and take 3. Alegron. He was good behind Profondo in the Spring Champion and should be set nicely to run out the 2500 metres. Big watch 9. Hitotsu who has a lot to do but has Anamoe (Sydney superstar) form lines.

Race 7 – 5 Home Affairs (one unit)
Current price $10
Sydney again, if 5. Home Affairs is good enough to take on la crème in the Everest, I expect him to be competitive here back to his own age group. He did get a stitch in the big one. If he’s right he goes very close. It is a ripping contest. 7. Kallos ran time down the straight last time and any improvement puts him right in it. 6. Paulele can fly as well. 4. In the Congo will give them a target but has a win over Anamoe and 9. Extreme Warrior is the best of the locals.

Race 8 – 4 Riodini (one unit)
Current price: $10
Sydney all the way with 4. Riodini. His runs scaring Think It Over and Verry Elleegant obviously stack up, the Epsom miss is a forgive, he can sit just off or with 5. Buffalo River and at his best is right in it. 7. Icebath got the big win last week and isn’t down here for a holiday. 14. Mr Brightside wins all the time and is up to this level. Quaddies go wide.

What a day. Good luck and good punting. It looks like a fantastic day of quality racing. Let me know your best.

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