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Opinion
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s not just the race that stops a nation that sees some quality horses in action.
The support card also has quite a bit of depth to it, and we should get some great racing all throughout the day. Let’s see if we can find a winner.
Race 1
Always a tough pick to start the day, a field of two-year-olds where most of the field hasn’t raced before.
The three horses that we have seen under race conditions all ran respectably on their respective debuts. Lascars might be the best of these to follow given he has already raced down the long Flemington straight, which is unique in this country, and Damien Oliver is in excellent form right now.
Nannu is on debut but must be respected at big odds given he beat Lascars in a jump-out two weeks ago. Brereton and Renosu have race experience, which is always crucial in these early juvenile races.
Selections: 1.Lascars 2.Nannu 3.Renosu 4.Brereton
Race 2
The second longest race at Flemington today, at 2800m it is 400m shorter than the big one.
Wil John is a deserved favourite given what an incredibly consistent horse he is. You know you are always in the race when you’re on with him. Savvy Valentino appeals on an each-way perspective – the form he brings down from some good races in Sydney is better than most of his opposition here.
Accountability is also from Sydney, but has had the run in Melbourne when finishing hard behind Wil John last start. Think We’re Due has some sort of hope given he is the likely leader and has three-time Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy on top. He’s in the game with an easy time of it.
Selections: 1.Savvy Valentino 2.Wil John 3.Accountability 4.Think We’re Due
Race 3
The grey’s race is always a highlight of Cup week, but it has been moved to today from Oaks day. It is always a very tough race, and this year is no exception.
Housay is the favourite, and strikes this race first-up after running a close fifth last year. It has the smell of a first-up kill given how lightly raced this Shea Eden gelding is, and after a 10 month break we have to assume he has improved.
Naval Envoy looks the natural leader, and has been racing in good form against some smart horses. At the top of the weights, Not To Be Mist and Mr Tipla have a touch of class and both enjoy a crucial gear change. The latter can particularly add some value to a quinella or trifecta bet.
Selections: 1.Housay 2.Naval Envoy 3.Mr Tipla 4.Not To Be Mist
Race 4
The Listed 1800m race on Cup day is always a competitive affair, and while this year’s field seems smaller than usual, it won’t make it much easier to find the winner.
Milton Park will go forward and control the race, and his form in recent times is very good for this, but there must be a question mark over his ability to win at 1800m. Charleise will be strongest late, and is due for a change of luck, but her get-back racing style counts against her. Jye McNeil taking the ride is in her favour.
Lord Vladivostok will likely jump as favourite, and it’s rare that the Adelaide trainers don’t strike a few times in Cup week. Skyman should also be respected, given how often Chris Waller gets his horses into the winner’s stall at this time of year.
Selections: 1.Skyman 2.Charleise 3.Lord Vladivostok 4.Milton Park
Race 5
Frankie Pinot has the best Victorian form in this race, having chased the likes of Sirileo Miss and Agreeable in good form races. He’s never raced at Flemington, but will surely appreciated the long straight and clear galloping room. Deserved favourite.
Blondeau has the best Sydney lead-up, chasing the ill-fated Triple Ace and then running a great fourth in the Silver Eagle, not far behind Count De Rupee. That horse almost won the Golden Eagle on Saturday. He’s hard to look past.
Ocean Beyond is building to a win and is dropping back in grade here after tackling Listed level last time. Good value, him. Pindaric is still untapped and must be a factor.
Selections: 1.Blondeau 2.Frankie Pinot 3.Ocean Beyond 4.Pindaric
Race 6
The three-year-old speedsters square off at the Flemington 1000m, with only two of them having raced down the famous straight before.
Profiteer won on debut here, and has certainly been taking on stronger opposition than what he faces here. He was beaten a long way in the Blue Sapphire, but did beat all others more than handily. The jury is still out.
Enthaar was one of the best two-year-old’s in the country last season, but is first-up here. How much has she improved, if at all? Bacchanalia has run some handy races against good horses, but has now been gelded and been the subject of heavy betting support since markets open. Where there’s smoke there’s fire? Super Thief is also in the market, and it does look a race between these four.
Selections: 1.Bacchanalia 2.Profiteer 3.Enthaar 4.Super Thief
Race 7
It’s never less than exciting when the Melbourne Cup comes around each year. What a buzz, and thankfully there will be some patrons on track to watch.
Incentivise ridden by Brett Prebble wins the Caulfield Cup. (Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
Don’t forget to read the exclusive thoughts of Anthony Cummings on each runner in the Cup.
Incentivise is probably the most exciting staying talent seen in this country since Makybe Diva, and his win in the Caulfield Cup was as dominant as any since Might and Power. These are big, big names to compare this year’s favourite to, but he appears to deserve it.
Grand Promenade appears to be the lightweight chance in the right place at the right time, and his win in the Bart Cummings was given more authority when second place-getter Tralee Rose then won the Geelong Cup. She’s a handy chance here too.
There’s always a street-corner tip in the Cup, and Floating Artist fits that bill this year. He’s still untapped, and some will say he should have won his last five races. Great House has a sense of timing, and will run well. Selino is the best roughie of those around the $51 mark, and the best massive blow-out horse might be Port Guillaume.
Selections: 1. Incentivise 2.Grand Promenade 3.Floating Artist 4.Selino
Race 8
The Melbourne Cup is certainly no snack, but this might actually be the toughest race on the card at Flemington. There are a host of good mares in really good form.
Promise of Success and April Rain come down from Sydney, and we saw how well that form stood up on Derby Day. Both are lightly raced given they are six and five respectively, and haven’t reached their ceiling yet.
La Mexicana comes out of the best races, and is the best weighted horse on handicap ratings. She deserves a win. Rich Hips has the best turn of foot in the race, and won this race last year. Aidensfield is perennially underrated but is always in the finish somewhere. The form around Agreeable’s two runs this prep has stood right up.
Selections: 1.La Mexicana 2.Aidensfield 3.Agreeable 4.Promise of Success
Race 9
This 1800m race for three-year-olds is something of a consolation for horses that didn’t quite make the VRC Derby field on Saturday.
Spirit of Gaylard does look the pick of the bunch given his run behind Forgot You in the Vase at Moonee Valley last start. There does have to be a query stepping back to 1800m after being set for a 2500m race though. Same goes for Villaden, who has the blinkers off after resenting them in the Vase.
Maracana is a filly to keep an eye on, having also impressed on Cox Plate day last time out. Zoumon looks the best of those at double figure odds, and you know where he’ll be in the run from the Waterhouse and Bott stable.
Selections: 1.Maracana 2.Spirit of Gaylard 3.Villaden 4.Zoumon
Race 10
What a tough race to finish the Melbourne Cup day card. It’s a big field down the straight six, and the chances are coming from everywhere.
Prime Candidate comes down from Sydney, having been chasing Big Parade at his last two starts. That’s only a level below Everest form. He looks a sensational each-way play.
Express Pass is an even bigger price, and shouldn’t be given his recent performances in tougher races than this. Pandemic is always a chance at this level, and the widest barrier should be in his favour. Curran always runs well. Quantico is a bit of a mystery horse, and will run well if gate one doesn’t count against him. Bons Abroad gets another chance to finally show something.
Selections: 1.Prime Candidate 2.Express Pass 3.Pandemic 4.Curran