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Opinion
As we enter the business end of this World Cup the qualification scenarios have somewhat simplified and here I would like to share what I have worked out.
Most of the games from here on are going to be really interesting in terms of their significance as far as semifinal qualification is earned
Right from the beginning Group 1 was looking tougher and tighter than Group 2. It seemed Group 1 was the pool to avoid for established sides but no one realised at the start what a disadvantage it was for the established sides in Group 2.
The weaker minnows on one hand did provide easier passage for big teams. However, it also meant one bad game for a big team against another big team would dent its chances significantly, i.e. more than it would have on loosing to a good side in Group 1, as you still could have hoped and backed the weaker teams like Sri Lanka or Bangladesh to create an upset or two against bigger teams.
No one can explain it better than Virat Kohli himself as India learnt its lesson in a very hard way. India lost two games in group stage and were already told their fate as no one could seriously back the likes of Namibia, Scotland or even Afghanistan to beat giants like NZ, Pakistan or India.
Among all twelve teams only one team has confirmed its berth in the semi-finals and that is Pakistan, which means any one of the remaining eleven teams can still fail to qualify mathematically.
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Scotland are the three teams that are already eliminated.
Now here I would like to share my summary on qualification scenarios
Both teams have only one game left and they will play against each other.
If England wins
It will confirm England’s semifinal qualification as top in Group 1 with 10 points.
South Africa will end up on six points.
Australia still have two games left with four points.
The options are: a) win both and qualify with eight points;
b) win one and lose one to finish on six points and compete with SA on NRR;
c) Lose both to confirm elimination;
d) West Indies can also enter the race for second spot with six points if they win both of their remaining games.
e) Among South Africa, WI and AUS, South Africa have a far superior NRR, while WI is far behind and AUS are right in the middle
If South Africa wins
a) South Africa finishes with eight points to compete with England for that first position;
b) Australia can enter the race with eight points if they win both of their remaining games;
c) Both games are knockout for Australia as they must finish on eight points;
d) West Indies gets eliminated straightaway with no chance of getting to eight points.
In group 2, it is straightforward
a) Pakistan have qualified already;
b) if New Zealand win both of their remaining games, they go through with Pakistan;
c) If New Zealand lose one they will finish on 6, Afghanistan and India can go maximum six as well in which case NRR comes in to play in which case Afghanistan looks way ahead as of New Zealand and IND;
d) if New Zealand loose both it is between Afghanistan and India;
e) India should finish on six points as they play Scotland and Namibia next;
f) Namibia have not been eliminated officially as they can still reach six points theoretically.
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