It is December already. We head back to Rosehill for a promising card. It is not long until I reset the numbers at the end of 2021 and I have some catching up to do.
With rain due on Saturday, we should stay in the soft range at worst considering the improvement the track has made with the dry during the week.
Race 1 – 8 Shihonka (two units)
Current odds: $2.40
8. Shihonka takes on the older girls in the opener. She’s going places and rated on top with the weight drop from her good midweek win. Tim Clark/Gai Waterhouse/lead is a winning formula. This should get us a kitty to work with across the day.
Race 2 – 10 Who’s Tinny (one unit)
Current odds – $51
I am speculating on the appropriately named 10. Who’s Tinny. She’s now won two of her last three and bolted in at Orange. It is a step up here, but she will get the trip dropping back to 1800, and rain will only be a plus. Kath Bell-Pitomac comes to town for the ride, go well team! Money’s come for 5. Lucky Banner, who looks a common sense play. 8. Laughing or Crying is overs at around $15 as well.
Race 3 – 1 Snitzonfire (two units)
Current odds: $3.90
I had 1. Snitzonfire rated at $2.60, 3/1 looks attractive. 2. Sonnet Star has me confused. Her Flemington run was excellent and rates up to this but her midweek effort before then puts her with the pack here. Watch this space. 3. Blow Dart is a nice horse helped with the apprentice claim.
Race 4 – 1 Wisdom of Water (two units)
Current odds: $7.50
There was silly old me cheering home 1. Wisdom of Water at $31 when a lovely third in the Warra. I have to stick here considering the weight-for-age form first-up has now been franked, the drying track would be the key for him. 8. Mr Mosaic was scratched from last week to run here. He’s also helped by the better surface and is unbeaten fresh. 5. Lashes at 20/1 must go in any early quad or exotic play. If switched on she’s a player at this level for sure.
Race 5 – 2 Awesome Lad (one unit)
Current price: $10
I can definitely have a ticket on 2. Awesome Lad at double figures in the Midway. His fresh run was fine, he stays at 1300 metres and this race doesn’t look any harder. I respect the money for 1. Black Duke. His three-year-old numbers sing but maybe the mile is more his go?
Race 6 – 1 Solar Apex (one unit)
Current odds: $9.50
I am forgiving the miss of 1. Solar Apex at 2000 metres last time. His form earlier this prep around Yiyi and Shibli puts him at the top of tree back to 72 grade and 1800 metres. 2. Rosseau is the watch horse, also with Chris Waller and up from Melbourne Friday night stuff. 4. Caesars Palace will win one soon. I am wary.
Race 7 – 5 New King (one unit)
Current odds: $18
Maybe Chris Waller made a rare error running 5. New King in the slop last week. He’s better than that and we’re now getting massive overs. I am happy to have him. James McDonald sits on 3. Welsh Legend. I am rating him over 4. Born A King, scratched from last week. I could be talked into a saver on 9. Avion Fury if anyone knows the trainer. His first-up run behind Shibli was good.
Race 8 – 2 Le Vizir (one unit)
Current odds: $7
2. Le Vizir will appreciate the step up to 1500 metres. He had a win fresh at 1200 that rates to have him in the mix here, particularly considering his improvement as he gets towards 2000 metres. I went the right way taking on 1. Francesco Guardi last start and will again. McDonald now on makes me twitchy. 3. Too Much Caviar will be on speed and is a chance if he runs in this (dual nominated).
Race 9 – 7 Canasta (one unit)
Current odds: 5.50
I certainly missed the $9.50 offered on 7. Canasta in early markets. He was unlucky fresh and his best from last prep stacks up well. 3. Bigboyroy looks the main danger. I could also entertain 2. Grand Piano if there’s market support. He’s been awful lately but is good at his peak.
Race 10 – 5 Ranges (two units)
I am finishing strong with 5. Ranges, who put in a career-best number to win fresh. He’s helped by Reece Jones’ weight claim and should at least hold his form, if not improve. 13. Queen Bellissimo has drawn well. This horse will go forward and was impressive last time. 10. El Buena is the next best for McDonald/Waller.
The challenge – back to square by Christmas
The tally (from August 1)
Outlay: 213 units
Return: 161.90 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes.