Villiers Day at Randwick today and there’s quality across the day for an off-carnival meeting. Looking for wet trackers and on-pace types in the sprints.
Race 1 – 15 London Gal (one unit)
Current odds: $11
15. London Gal had her first go on a heavy surface last start and romped in at Gundagai by over five lengths. Should be on speed and looks to favoured over the 1000 metres, and Tim Clark is always a good one to have on front runners. As of Friday night 22. Miss Ostend still needs a scratching to make the field, she was at huge prices in some nice fillies black-type stuff before a break and could be the one going places.
Race 2 – 7 Savvy Legend (one unit)
Current odds: $11
Taking a shot at 7. Savvy Legend at the odds, in his last prep he won second-up at a mile, he faces the same test here and he’s not unsuited in the slop. 3. Media Starguest is always around the mark and with the scratchings is a big show.
Race 3 – 2 Dragonstone (three units)
Happy to stick with 2. Dragonstone after a really good first-up win, I think he’s backable at anything over even money. 8. Tiny was the other backable horse at the odds, she’s going well this prep and her chances aren’t hurt by the conditions.
Race 4 – 7 Lion’s Share (one unit)
Current odds: $21
The most ordinary Listed race I can remember here, complete with a short priced favourite racing six levels above his usual grade and untried in the wet. I’ll leave 4. Herman Hesse and take 7. Lion’s Share, yes he’s back from two miles but that was at Listed level and he’s down in weight from that. The horses at the top of the market are tried at the grade but penalised weight-wise due to the level of competition.
No bet race five featuring unraced two year-olds
Race 6 – 7 Snippy Fox (three units)
Current odds: $9
7. Snippy Fox looks a great bet at $9, she’s been running well in this sort of grade and her first-up win in the mud looks good for this. Two-from-three second-up, three-from-four on heavy and a great 1200 metre record. Enough for me. Thought the danger was 4. Irish Angel, ratings were relatively level with 3/5/6 but she has the wet form and has drawn nicely in the centre.
Race 7 – 6 Vulpine (two units)
Current odds: $6
It could be a big day for old mate Jay Ford, 6. Vulpine looks the natural leader again and will be aiming for a repeat of his Rosehill win a fortnight ago in similar conditions. 10. Snapdancer looks the danger, she normally goes well fresh and eats up the 1200 trip.
Race 8 – 15 Steely (three units)
Current odds: $4.60
With a delicious seven-kilo weight drop, 15. Steely rates on top. His mile and wet track stats rate on top, and he accelerated well in similar conditions last start. A win by my boy 6. Ellsberg wouldn’t surprise, he ticked the heavy track box last time and has the big form lines. 8. Stockman goes in on that line as well, he meets Ellsberg 1.5 kilos better and is more suited by the extra trip and fitter third-up. Yep, Jay Ford again. Good race.
Race 9 – 12 Bluff’n’Bluster (one unit)
Current odds: $7
I’m hopping aboard the 7. Bluff’n’Bluster train, his win last start was a new best and he should be right in the mix again. 13. Caesars Palace will break through at some stage and is right in the mix again, the two favourites 8. Lackeen and 9. Equation are the other two worth including in quaddies.
Race 10 – 9 Blesk (one unit)
Current odds: $8.50
My boy 9. Blesk gets his chance in the lucky last, he was finishing nicely last start and he goes okay on wet tracks. He’s drawn nicely and I like Tommy Berry sticking. 5. Brookspire is the rightful favourite but is very short from a squishy inside draw late in the day. Risking. 4. Petronius (Clark/leader) looks a shot if he gets the favours and they’re leaving the fence.
The tally (from August 1)
Outlay: 226 units
Return: 166.70 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes.